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re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company

Posted on 11/11/26 at 5:57 am to
Posted by NorthShoreTiger44
Madisonville
Member since Aug 2014
1633 posts
Posted on 11/11/26 at 5:57 am to
From X, hopefully we get a repeat

Last quarter earnings, CRWV reported the night before NBIS.

What NBIS did next:
- Day of CRWV earnings: $184 ? $193 (+5%)
- Day of NBIS earnings: $193 ? $259 (+34%)
- 2 days later: $259 ? $278 (+7%)

CRWV just reported again promising guidance and NBIS is up 9% overnight.

NBIS reports Thursday.
Posted by donRANDOMnumbers
Hub City
Member since Nov 2006
17637 posts
Posted on 11/11/26 at 8:31 am to
full disclosure... i panic sold the other day but then immediately bought back in. thankfully
Posted by NaturalBeam
Member since Sep 2007
15200 posts
Posted on 11/11/26 at 8:35 am to
quote:

From X, hopefully we get a repeat

Last quarter earnings, CRWV reported the night before NBIS.

What NBIS did next:
- Day of CRWV earnings: $184 ? $193 (+5%)
- Day of NBIS earnings: $193 ? $259 (+34%)
- 2 days later: $259 ? $278 (+7%)

CRWV just reported again promising guidance and NBIS is up 9% overnight.

NBIS reports Thursday.
I'm counting on another big bump this week and then planning to sell a chunk of it next week. With the Fed almost certainly raising rates in a few weeks, I expect I can rebuy the shares at a better price.
Posted by SidewalkTiger
Member since Dec 2019
77169 posts
Posted on 11/11/26 at 9:02 am to
quote:

I'm counting on another big bump this week and then planning to sell a chunk of it next week. With the Fed almost certainly raising rates in a few weeks, I expect I can rebuy the shares at a better price


What's the cost average of the shares you're planning on selling?

I'm at $88.88 and trying to figure out if I want to do the same.
Posted by j1897
Member since Nov 2011
5330 posts
Posted on 11/11/26 at 9:05 am to
quote:

I'm counting on another big bump this week and then planning to sell a chunk of it next week.


I hope so as well, I want out. Met them today at a conference and it was the strangest shite I've ever seen in 20 years of IT. They had 4 little girls grabbing people and trying to have them put together a 3x3 cube made out of Tetris pieces to go on some leaderboard. There isn't a single piece of information anywhere in this large booth that even hints at what the company does. One of the people doing the puzzle literally had to ask the lady, "what do you guys even do?"

No sales people, no demo's, no presentations, no technical staff at all, just some blocks and a big name. It's all very odd. Seems nobody is in charge of the marketing department.
Posted by NaturalBeam
Member since Sep 2007
15200 posts
Posted on 11/11/26 at 9:07 am to
My overall average is about $115, most of which are long. But I've got a block that are short and in the red right now, so I think it makes the most sense to sell those and harvest the short-term loss.

I've got about $6k worth of shares around a $220 average
Posted by Paul Allen
Montauk, NY
Member since Nov 2007
79447 posts
Posted on 11/11/26 at 9:09 am to
quote:

I want out


Don’t blame you one bit. It’s one of the best decisions I’ve ever made.
Posted by NaturalBeam
Member since Sep 2007
15200 posts
Posted on 11/11/26 at 9:10 am to
quote:

Don’t blame you one bit. It’s one of the best decisions I’ve ever made.
Selling in the mid-30s when you would be up 5x right now is the best decision you ever made?? I guess you don't like money.
Posted by Paul Allen
Montauk, NY
Member since Nov 2007
79447 posts
Posted on 11/11/26 at 9:54 am to
quote:

I guess you don't like money.


I did great with this stock. Thanks for checking in. Hard to beat the consistency of growth-focused ETFs like VUG, VOO and VXUS. I prefer consistency over volatility.
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
26645 posts
Posted on 11/11/26 at 9:58 am to
quote:

Paul Allen

Just so everyone can see how shortsighted you were:

You sold NBIS at a valuation of around 5-8bn

Today, one of it's 25% minority stakes is easily worth more than 10 billion.
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If the 14bn estimate is accurate, you sold the entire company for roughly half of the value of one of its minority stake subsidiaries....because...you are scared of volatility, though you also knew it was supposed to be a long term hold...I wish I could make this make sense.
Posted by michael corleone
baton rouge
Member since Jun 2005
6795 posts
Posted on 11/11/26 at 10:06 am to
“I don’t know what the company does”


I said that about Google and NVDIA and missed out. Didn’t miss out on this one one of CoreWeave.


They generate revenue. That’s what they do. NBIS is vertically integrated and the neo cloud solution they offer is more secure than their competitors. They also can provide their product, despite the high demand. I dont have any idea what a neo cloud does , just like I did not know understand the functionality of a search engine in 1998. I did not understand the technical aspects of an iPod or iPhone or Apple release those either. But I did understand is that there was a demand for the product and people willing to pay multiples to get it. I don’t need to own the stock for the next 30 years, but I will own it for the next 2–3 until the rest of the neo cloud world catches up or the demand slows.
Posted by NaturalBeam
Member since Sep 2007
15200 posts
Posted on 11/11/26 at 10:06 am to
Maybe you did well, but in the first few days of June 2025, you said you were totally out. The stock price was in the mid-30s, starting to pop into the 40s.

I hope you did make some money off of it (I root for people, unlike you for some odd reason). But it's total sour grapes to say that selling this stock in the 30s-40s, when it's now over 150, is "one of the best decisions of your life".

It's just laughable at this point. You sold too early. It happens man. Let it go.
Posted by SidewalkTiger
Member since Dec 2019
77169 posts
Posted on 11/11/26 at 10:09 am to
quote:

My overall average is about $115, most of which are long. But I've got a block that are short and in the red right now, so I think it makes the most sense to sell those and harvest the short-term loss


Ah, yeah makes sense.
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
26645 posts
Posted on 11/11/26 at 10:23 am to
quote:

They generate revenue. That’s what they do. NBIS is vertically integrated and the neo cloud solution they offer is more secure than their competitors. They also can provide their product, despite the high demand. I dont have any idea what a neo cloud does , just like I did not know understand the functionality of a search engine in 1998. I did not understand the technical aspects of an iPod or iPhone or Apple release those either. But I did understand is that there was a demand for the product and people willing to pay multiples to get it. I don’t need to own the stock for the next 30 years, but I will own it for the next 2–3 until the rest of the neo cloud world catches up or the demand slows.



Adding to this, management is extremely good at selecting the best startups and scaling the relationship with decades in mind.
This is an automatic revenue generator. The flywheel, as they say.

It's nothing short of remarkable that one of their original AI startup companies is now targeting an ARR that is double Nebius's own 2025 ARR. This "startup" is now the third largest private AI company in the world, and it runs on Nebius.
This is why NBIS doesn't need hyper scaler contracts any longer.
This is why NBIS will become a hyper scaler.
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Posted by NorthShoreTiger44
Madisonville
Member since Aug 2014
1633 posts
Posted on 11/11/26 at 10:56 am to
Man all the hype just makes you wonder when/if it will pop to test that $300 mark again. Only wish I had more funds available to DCA
Posted by Jax-Tiger
Vero Beach, FL
Member since Jan 2005
28630 posts
Posted on 11/11/26 at 11:23 am to
quote:

I don’t need to own the stock for the next 30 years, but I will own it for the next 2–3 until the rest of the neo cloud world catches up or the demand slows.


I like the analogy of Google. Of all the companies that I see out there, this is the one that has the potential to crack the upper echelon of the largest companies in the world.

People lump them together with Coreweave, but Arkady founded Yandex, which is the "Russian Google" before he started Nebius. He brought all of his software engineers with him. They are building an ecosystem that will help them be so much more than a "Neo-cloud" renting out GPUs.

IMO, Nebius is going to separate themselves from the neo-clouds in the next couple of years and diversify. When the demand for more data centers levels off, Nebius will begin shifting their capital and buying into other sectors (much like Google got into streaming, cell phones, and internet services), and integrate them into their existing infrastructure.
Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
51930 posts
Posted on 11/11/26 at 11:30 am to
I think the clickhouse equity stake is going to be a bigger deal than the market is pricing. NBIS will have an M/A opportunity the competition will not

It’s gonna go public hopefully they wait until they can guide profit

quote:

ClickHouse has made high-profile additions aimed at public market readiness. The company hired former Snowflake investor relations head Jimmy Sexton—who has prior experience guiding two companies through the IPO process—as its Chief Financial Officer. It also added Mike Scarpelli, former CFO of both Snowflake and ServiceNow, to its Board of Directors
This post was edited on 11/11/26 at 11:34 am
Posted by NorthShoreTiger44
Madisonville
Member since Aug 2014
1633 posts
Posted on 11/11/26 at 11:52 am to
Jimmy Sexton? Being the agent of all the high profile college coaches wasn’t enough, needed to get into AI?
Posted by dkreller
Laffy
Member since Jan 2009
34612 posts
Posted on 11/11/26 at 11:53 am to
I mean AI is being used in sports now. Only makes sense for Sexton to rep it.
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