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Longterm (20y) Treasury Bond Yields going up

Posted on 5/14/25 at 9:28 pm
Posted by thelawnwranglers
Member since Sep 2007
41771 posts
Posted on 5/14/25 at 9:28 pm
Not huge move but I thought this week's news would point them lower

Is this a function of US increasing debt?
Posted by Lsu05
Member since Oct 2023
76 posts
Posted on 5/15/25 at 4:37 am to
Curious about this as well. How high will it go? Kind of unsettling that it’s not coming down in spite of all the recent positive news.
This post was edited on 5/15/25 at 6:29 am
Posted by bigjoe1
Member since Jan 2024
1413 posts
Posted on 5/15/25 at 6:17 am to
I think it's just uncertainty. Inflation is proving to be sticky and there is no clarity or end in sight with the tariff situation.
Posted by thelawnwranglers
Member since Sep 2007
41771 posts
Posted on 5/15/25 at 7:50 am to
quote:

think it's just uncertainty. Inflation is proving to be sticky and there is no clarity or end in sight with the tariff situation.


Listen to business stuff this am. Basically too soon to see impact of Tarriff in system so sounds like uncertainty like you said
Posted by Enadious
formerly B5Lurker City of Central
Member since Aug 2004
18493 posts
Posted on 5/15/25 at 9:29 am to
quote:

I think it's just uncertainty. Inflation is proving to be sticky and there is no clarity or end in sight with the tariff situation.

We are on an inflationary cycle for the next 40 years. It's the only way to manage the national debt. Interest rates essentially rose from 1940 to 1980 in one cycle. Then, fell from 1980 to 2020 on that 40 year cycle. Now, we are in a cycle where interests rates will rise. Rates reached 14% in 1981. Expect interest rates on only rise this cycle.
Posted by Hitman67
Lumberton, TX
Member since Jul 2024
266 posts
Posted on 5/15/25 at 9:52 am to
Yes, inflation is probably here to stay for awhile. All roads lead to the Fed putting liquidity into the system soon. When they are gonna do it is the question.
Posted by thelawnwranglers
Member since Sep 2007
41771 posts
Posted on 5/15/25 at 10:25 am to
quote:

We are on an inflationary cycle for the next 40 years. It's the only way to manage the national debt. Interest rates essentially rose from 1940 to 1980 in one cycle. Then, fell from 1980 to 2020 on that 40 year cycle. Now, we are in a cycle where interests rates will rise. Rates reached 14% in 1981. Expect interest rates on only rise this cycle.


I shouldn't have bought those ,20 years
Posted by evil cockroach
27.98N // 86.92E
Member since Nov 2007
8843 posts
Posted on 5/15/25 at 9:45 pm to
quote:

All roads lead to the Fed putting liquidity into the system soon.
which is terrible when you consider that’s printing money out of thin air
Posted by The Scofflaw
Metairie, LA
Member since Sep 2014
1900 posts
Posted on 5/16/25 at 10:15 am to
Short interest at an ATH. People can be a bear at your own risk, but don't come crying back they get squeezed.
Posted by Bard
Definitely NOT an admin
Member since Oct 2008
57722 posts
Posted on 5/16/25 at 3:27 pm to
quote:

which is terrible when you consider that’s printing money out of thin air


What the Fed has done has been because of what Congress has done. Without Congress creating hundreds of billions per year (and now over a trillion and a half per year) in deficit spending, the Fed wouldn't be having to buy anything. "Deficit spending" is just another term for "debt creation".
Posted by BestBanker
Member since Nov 2011
18893 posts
Posted on 5/16/25 at 5:08 pm to
Moodys downgraded US credik rating late today.
Posted by Warfox
B.R. Native (now in MA)
Member since Apr 2017
3740 posts
Posted on 5/17/25 at 7:26 am to
quote:

We are on an inflationary cycle for the next 40 years. It's the only way to manage the national debt. Interest rates essentially rose from 1940 to 1980 in one cycle. Then, fell from 1980 to 2020 on that 40 year cycle. Now, we are in a cycle where interests rates will rise. Rates reached 14% in 1981. Expect interest rates on only rise this cycle.


Hence why should have purchased gold like us crazies recommend after the Covid money printer went BRRR.
Posted by wutangfinancial
Treasure Valley
Member since Sep 2015
11825 posts
Posted on 5/18/25 at 11:51 am to
quote:

Is this a function of US increasing debt?


lol no
Posted by PerplenGold
TX
Member since Nov 2021
2213 posts
Posted on 5/18/25 at 1:28 pm to
quote:

the Fed wouldn't be having to buy anything.


The bond market needs buyers although would best if not the Fed. Foreign holders selling are likely pressuring prices raising yields. The international trade situation needs addressing but retaliation comes in many forms.
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