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Message
I’ve gone full Husss - the Fed is engineering a depression
Posted on 7/9/22 at 8:59 am
Posted on 7/9/22 at 8:59 am
We’re already in a supply side recession, which we’ve never had before. The Fed has no normal tools to handle a supply side recession. This won’t get better until blue collar workers go back to work and China re-opens completely. China’s manufacturing closures are being done to manipulate the US markets and force us into recession. Then consider that we have a massive blue collar labor shortage, which won’t get better until we pay them significantly more, or until the economy destroys the “gig economy” that they’re currently sustaining themselves with. The Fed also has to kill inflation since it’s wrecking the middle class and lower class and has potential to kill US currency.
The Fed is also convinced that there is too much money being held by the lower and middle class, driving inflation. So now they want to separate you from your money and kill the gig economy to eliminate the supply side labor issues
So here’s the Fed’s plan:
- jack up interest rates until inflation is killed, not just halted or reduced. Inflation will be at 3.5% before the fed considers not jacking up rates, and they’ll probably maintain rates until our average inflation over some period is 2-2.5% (their long term target), meaning they’ll overshoot to burn the average faster
- plunge the economy from recession to depression to force people back to traditional jobs at normal labor prices, eliminating supply side concerns (besides China) and preventing more labor inflation - businesses will survive due to the normal demand still being present, but kill the heavily consumer driven and small business gig economy
- housing and consumer credit bubbles will push consumers over a cliff, particularly the gig economy ones, and ensure they’re forced to go back to work
Some evidence:
This week the Fed noted that the economy is looking better and jobs are still running hot - then the betting odds for another 75 bp hike soared. The Fed admitted that the soft landing won’t kill inflation and they need to burn the soft landing. We’re already in a recession, that means time for a depression
The Fed has also continually insisted that people have too much money in their pockets
One of the Fed chairs said this week that they won’t consider stopping hikes until 3.5% inflation in their core numbers
The housing bubble is getting a slow deflation already - check inventories vs a few months ago, and look at price adjustments. Flippers are being murdered right now and many will be underwater soon if not already. That gig will be dead soon
Consumer credit bubble is exploding - consumer credit has seen massive leaps recent month or so. Americans are spending way too much on housing and gas
Technically the Fed believes they are engineering a demand side recession to combat the supply side recession, evening everything out and bringing us back to pre-Covid. But in reality, 1+1=2, and the double recessions will trigger a depression and wreck our economy long term
The Fed is also convinced that there is too much money being held by the lower and middle class, driving inflation. So now they want to separate you from your money and kill the gig economy to eliminate the supply side labor issues
So here’s the Fed’s plan:
- jack up interest rates until inflation is killed, not just halted or reduced. Inflation will be at 3.5% before the fed considers not jacking up rates, and they’ll probably maintain rates until our average inflation over some period is 2-2.5% (their long term target), meaning they’ll overshoot to burn the average faster
- plunge the economy from recession to depression to force people back to traditional jobs at normal labor prices, eliminating supply side concerns (besides China) and preventing more labor inflation - businesses will survive due to the normal demand still being present, but kill the heavily consumer driven and small business gig economy
- housing and consumer credit bubbles will push consumers over a cliff, particularly the gig economy ones, and ensure they’re forced to go back to work
Some evidence:
This week the Fed noted that the economy is looking better and jobs are still running hot - then the betting odds for another 75 bp hike soared. The Fed admitted that the soft landing won’t kill inflation and they need to burn the soft landing. We’re already in a recession, that means time for a depression
The Fed has also continually insisted that people have too much money in their pockets
One of the Fed chairs said this week that they won’t consider stopping hikes until 3.5% inflation in their core numbers
The housing bubble is getting a slow deflation already - check inventories vs a few months ago, and look at price adjustments. Flippers are being murdered right now and many will be underwater soon if not already. That gig will be dead soon
Consumer credit bubble is exploding - consumer credit has seen massive leaps recent month or so. Americans are spending way too much on housing and gas
Technically the Fed believes they are engineering a demand side recession to combat the supply side recession, evening everything out and bringing us back to pre-Covid. But in reality, 1+1=2, and the double recessions will trigger a depression and wreck our economy long term
This post was edited on 7/9/22 at 9:14 am
Posted on 7/9/22 at 9:01 am to Upperdecker
I agree that they will overshoot but we are not there yet. Inflation should start coming down with another 1.5% or so rate increase and then they can stabilize. Doom and gloom is just a miserable way to live.
Posted on 7/9/22 at 9:15 am to lynxcat
I’m not a doom and gloom person, this is what I believe to be reality
Posted on 7/9/22 at 9:25 am to Upperdecker
We are in such a weird spot with a pandemic following our post-2009 inflationary policies that doom isn't unrealistic. What goes up has to go down, and we may get that x2 this go around.
I don't think it's being orchestrated the way that you describe just because I think that they're flying along the seat of their pants and they lack the foresight and political will to orchestrate such a plan. However of the big picture plans, that one is very realistic. I don't know if it's scarier that this is the plan or that this is the result of the lack of a plan.
I don't think it's being orchestrated the way that you describe just because I think that they're flying along the seat of their pants and they lack the foresight and political will to orchestrate such a plan. However of the big picture plans, that one is very realistic. I don't know if it's scarier that this is the plan or that this is the result of the lack of a plan.
Posted on 7/9/22 at 9:45 am to Upperdecker
I'm with you. Though, I do not expect we will see the real hit until late this year or early next year.
Posted on 7/9/22 at 10:20 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
I don't think it's being orchestrated the way that you describe just because I think that they're flying along the seat of their pants
I think they believe they are doing the right thing. I just believe they’re wrong. History favors that the Fed will be wrong when they try to intervene. There are always unintended consequences of this scale of manipulation
Posted on 7/9/22 at 10:24 am to Upperdecker
The Fed is the only thing saving us from our dumb arse presidents we keep running out. Obama, Trump and Biden have been writing checks like it is free money and we are in defensive mode.
Posted on 7/9/22 at 10:57 am to Upperdecker
1) The Fed can't control interest rates
2) you've been living in a depression for 10 years depending on how you define the term
2) you've been living in a depression for 10 years depending on how you define the term
Posted on 7/9/22 at 12:46 pm to wutangfinancial
LINK
Assuming you’re referring to mortgage rates, and the Fed is a close factor in mortgage rates
quote:
1) The Fed can't control interest rates
Assuming you’re referring to mortgage rates, and the Fed is a close factor in mortgage rates
This post was edited on 7/9/22 at 12:47 pm
Posted on 7/9/22 at 1:38 pm to Upperdecker
I’m talking about every rate besides FFR and IOER. Every other market besides short term credit is unaffected or if they do there’s marginal effects.
Posted on 7/9/22 at 2:23 pm to AUCE05
quote:
The Fed is the only thing keeping us reelecting our dumb arse presidents we keep running out.
FIFY. Bush was no better, Trump got screwed by Covid, and Biden is likely going to die. End of quote, repeat the line.
The Fed does nothing but support the horrible policies we've had for decades. Now they are acting like they are in defensive mode. I don't believe it. They'll turn as soon as the kitchen gets hot. Wimps.
Posted on 7/9/22 at 4:29 pm to Upperdecker
I don't think they're engineering a depression, I think they're picking stagflation over another Great Depression in the hopes that the economy's foundation (consumers' desire to buy goods and services) is strong enough to keep the economy somewhat going until it rights itself.
Leaving rates alone would have meant continuing to overheat the economy, meaning even more inflation which would absolutely lead to a depression.
Leaving rates alone would have meant continuing to overheat the economy, meaning even more inflation which would absolutely lead to a depression.
Posted on 7/9/22 at 4:44 pm to Upperdecker
That is giving the Fed too much credit. The Fed with all their PHDs simply don’t know what they are doing.
I have said for 30 years that the Fed should have 5 PHDs on staff for research purposes. The rest should be finance and accounting guys and gals.
I have said for 30 years that the Fed should have 5 PHDs on staff for research purposes. The rest should be finance and accounting guys and gals.
Posted on 7/9/22 at 5:38 pm to Upperdecker
You’re putting too much blame on the Fed for a problem caused by Congress in shutting down the economy in the first place and then handing out stimulus checks for no reason.
Posted on 7/9/22 at 6:00 pm to Upperdecker
delete
This post was edited on 7/9/22 at 6:04 pm
Posted on 7/9/22 at 7:07 pm to Shepherd88
quote:
You’re putting too much blame on the Fed for a problem caused by Congress in shutting down the economy in the first place and then handing out stimulus checks for no reason.
This! I guess its hindsight now but pumping all that excess money and closing down the economy was what got us here.
Posted on 7/9/22 at 9:30 pm to Shepherd88
I didn’t address blame for the problem at hand - I agree that was recklessly closing our economy and handing out welfare, stimulus checks, and unemployment like it was candy. I’m only talking path forward
Posted on 7/10/22 at 6:26 am to lynxcat
quote:Inflation likely has peaked and is already starting to come down. Little thanks to the Fed. The problem is the Fed is using a hammer to drive a screw.
Inflation should start coming down with another 1.5% or so rate increase
Current problems are supply-side mediated. Rate increases are a demand-side instrument. Raising rates to 10+yr heights to destroy demand in order to match politically controlled supply-chain disruption is a dicey game, to be kind.
At least that narrative is starting to take hold.
Posted on 7/10/22 at 7:48 am to Bard
quote:
I think they're picking stagflation over another Great Depression in the hopes that the economy's foundation (consumers' desire to buy goods and services) is strong enough to keep the economy somewhat going until it rights itself.
Agree with this. We were recently at the lowest interest rates ever. This is just slowly meandering back to the average and staving off major depression.
Posted on 7/11/22 at 5:39 am to Upperdecker
Here is what I haven’t seen mentioned enough by pundits: This horrible labor participation rate is a huge thorn in the side of the debt based economic system. The Fed keeps pulling trillions in credit from the future on the come line (craps table pun) to be paid by tax payers but there is no longer enough of them there. They can never just create money out of thin air without borrowers on the other side. But without creating more and more new credit into the system, it all starts to unravel quickly.
The question is this: Are they trying to force people back into the workforce with a huge double whammy of inflation in everything we need to live while at the same time deflating retirement accounts?
Sure looks like to me that the grand goal in all of this is to have a two tiered society globally while the central banks continue to collude with one another while buying up assets with OUR money. Never trust what they say. Watch what they actually do. It is usually the opposite of what they say while things like Covid, wars, etc. give them complete cover.
The question is this: Are they trying to force people back into the workforce with a huge double whammy of inflation in everything we need to live while at the same time deflating retirement accounts?
Sure looks like to me that the grand goal in all of this is to have a two tiered society globally while the central banks continue to collude with one another while buying up assets with OUR money. Never trust what they say. Watch what they actually do. It is usually the opposite of what they say while things like Covid, wars, etc. give them complete cover.
This post was edited on 7/11/22 at 5:41 am
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