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re: Is this the next dotcom bubble?
Posted on 5/14/26 at 8:13 pm to VooDude
Posted on 5/14/26 at 8:13 pm to VooDude
Valuations are equally stretched on the market as a whole, but as other posters have mentioned, these companies are actually growing profits.
No telling where we go from here, good time to be a 37yo homeowner though
No telling where we go from here, good time to be a 37yo homeowner though
0
Posted on 5/14/26 at 8:16 pm to Free888
quote:
There’s a coding efficiency created by AI that reduces the need for energy and chips. This would hit the chipmakers but the Anthropics etc would flourish.
Usually results in the opposite effect.
A breakthrough in efficiency would result in higher demand for chips, memory etc.
Posted on 5/14/26 at 8:40 pm to VooDude
Two things
My black swan example was to create a temporary disruption. It wouldn’t break it forever.
Re Deep Seek, they presented it as a LLM leap. They failed to disclose that they were using NVidia chips in the background.
My black swan example was to create a temporary disruption. It wouldn’t break it forever.
Re Deep Seek, they presented it as a LLM leap. They failed to disclose that they were using NVidia chips in the background.
Posted on 5/14/26 at 8:43 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
A breakthrough in efficiency would result in higher demand for chips, memory etc.
I’m basing this on comments from the All In guys, who are experts in this space. While there would be a demand for chips, older chips would be able to take advantage of these efficiencies, which would disrupt the need for rapid advancement in high end chips. Companies would be able to make do with older chips for their needs.
Posted on 5/14/26 at 8:53 pm to Helo
Correct. His post was way off.
Posted on 5/14/26 at 8:59 pm to VooDude
Think about this…the memory companies trading at 8x earnings (PE) actually are not cheap. Think Micron, trading at a low PE. But that’s because the market knows they’re at peak earnings. You buy the memory companies when they’re at high PE’s not low. Those memory companies along with many others will have major pullbacks of 30-50%+. Look at their recent gains, it will happen. The S&P is up over 10% since early April.
Again, this doesn’t many bearish or oh my gosh run for cash and gold…it just means we’re overbought and will definitely have a large correction. However, we could rally another 20%+ before that happens.
So as others have said, figure out YOUR allocation and what works for you and stick with it.
Again, this doesn’t many bearish or oh my gosh run for cash and gold…it just means we’re overbought and will definitely have a large correction. However, we could rally another 20%+ before that happens.
So as others have said, figure out YOUR allocation and what works for you and stick with it.
Posted on 5/14/26 at 9:58 pm to VooDude
The dot com era had companies that virtually existed on paper. Clinton presided over this as I remember...great economy until it blew up.
Posted on 5/14/26 at 10:07 pm to TX_Tiger23
I don’t feel that is correct at this moment for memory stocks. I know that people are used them being cyclical but like MU for example has basically everything they can make sold for the next 2 years. And the bottle neck is allowing them to even jack up prices. AI build out is not ending in just 2 years. Hell we have to be building out so many power plants and all to powered those things. The space race is the next sector that will heat up. Elon has stated that spacex will need more chips that NVDA can make. That’s an insane thought to even try and digest. Memory is going to be needed just as bad. This is just an evolution time in human history we have never seen and these companies profits are not about to tank any time soon and the stocks need to catch up to the profits now because it started happening so fast.
This post was edited on 5/15/26 at 1:40 am
Posted on 5/14/26 at 10:22 pm to NoMercy
I understand your side but just disagree. Which is actually great, imagine a debate with disagreement yet both sides respect each other..assuming you’re that way.
AI is similar to the internet in the 90s in that it’s not going away and everyone needs to learn how to use it. However, the companies will over build, technology will change and demand will dissipate. It’s not a question of will it happen but when. Technology will change the AI consumption and we won’t need all these data centers being built.
Just wait and watch.
AI is similar to the internet in the 90s in that it’s not going away and everyone needs to learn how to use it. However, the companies will over build, technology will change and demand will dissipate. It’s not a question of will it happen but when. Technology will change the AI consumption and we won’t need all these data centers being built.
Just wait and watch.
Posted on 5/15/26 at 1:38 am to TX_Tiger23
Oh I get there will be a cool off. There will then be winners and losers. In don’t think MU will be a loser. The future will make it probably a $1.5-$2T company that it will have numbers to justify being at that continually just due to managing all this stuff and other advancements. It’s not going to instantly die off 50%+. These things can’t afford down time. Like casinos, down time is money. Not long after it is up and going there will be constant upkeep and upgrades to never go down. Now will it be numbers like the initial build out? No. But it’ll be business that these companies never saw previously to this initial build out. And like I said, the space race is coming and needs maybe even more tech. Spacex is not about to IPO because this is not about to ramp up also. Even Elon doesn’t have trillions for a space race.
Now can I see a lot of these smaller companies that have also ran up maybe not even exist in the future when the MUs just bring online more capacity. Yes that is extremely likely.
Now can I see a lot of these smaller companies that have also ran up maybe not even exist in the future when the MUs just bring online more capacity. Yes that is extremely likely.
This post was edited on 5/15/26 at 1:44 am
Posted on 5/15/26 at 7:59 am to NoMercy
Today is going to start out pretty rough
Posted on 5/15/26 at 8:40 am to TorchtheFlyingTiger
quote:
dividend stock what do you expect
An income taxed 4% annualized return for 40 years is gross.
You would have been 2x better off buying a new issue 30YR treasury. WHR and some other old economy stocks have just been disasters.
Posted on 5/15/26 at 8:48 am to Sus-Scrofa
Saw a bunch of banks upgrading their S&P500 projections after the last 2 days.
Posted on 5/15/26 at 9:07 am to VooDude
quote:
retirement
If you’re younger than 40 this will never happen
I don’t think a crash is ever gonna happen because the stock market is propped up by debasement of the currency. You as a normal person are paying for the rich to get richer via your standard of living getting worse
Posted on 5/18/26 at 7:37 am to VooDude
It’s def a bubble.
The AI build out is very similar to the internet build out and the 5G build in telecom.
When you have tons of CapEx being spent, here’s what happens:
Let’s say Google pays $100 billion to Nvidia for chips to build their data center. Nvidia books that as immediate profit. But Google, only books $20 billion of that as a depreciating expense. So in total, these two companies are showing inflated earnings in the present term bc one company isn’t depreciating it on their balance sheet at time of purchase. And nobody believes using 5 years to depreciate a chip is ethical. Chips don’t last 5 years.
What will end up happening is MEGA cap tech stocks (the hyperscalers) will become asset heavy companies over night. And asset heavy companies have always seen their multiples decrease. Depreciation becomes a huge drag on earnings over time. Meanwhile the semis selling these chips, well chips are a commodity. As more companies start making these chips, the price of the chips go down and so will the earnings of the SEMIs.
This is what will lead to the next crash. Competition in Semis (more suppliers coming to market), to go along with the huge drag on earnings for the hyperscalers as they have to depreciate all these hard assets they’ve bought.
The companies that in theory should be immune to the crash in AI/MegaCap tech are the energy companies that need do power what these companies have built. So I’d be putting most of my money into electricity companies coming to market that already are growing. Not the legacy ones that are already established
The AI build out is very similar to the internet build out and the 5G build in telecom.
When you have tons of CapEx being spent, here’s what happens:
Let’s say Google pays $100 billion to Nvidia for chips to build their data center. Nvidia books that as immediate profit. But Google, only books $20 billion of that as a depreciating expense. So in total, these two companies are showing inflated earnings in the present term bc one company isn’t depreciating it on their balance sheet at time of purchase. And nobody believes using 5 years to depreciate a chip is ethical. Chips don’t last 5 years.
What will end up happening is MEGA cap tech stocks (the hyperscalers) will become asset heavy companies over night. And asset heavy companies have always seen their multiples decrease. Depreciation becomes a huge drag on earnings over time. Meanwhile the semis selling these chips, well chips are a commodity. As more companies start making these chips, the price of the chips go down and so will the earnings of the SEMIs.
This is what will lead to the next crash. Competition in Semis (more suppliers coming to market), to go along with the huge drag on earnings for the hyperscalers as they have to depreciate all these hard assets they’ve bought.
The companies that in theory should be immune to the crash in AI/MegaCap tech are the energy companies that need do power what these companies have built. So I’d be putting most of my money into electricity companies coming to market that already are growing. Not the legacy ones that are already established
This post was edited on 5/18/26 at 7:45 am
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