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ELVA - logistic batteries expanding to robotics and defense

Posted on 7/25/26 at 8:54 am
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
26207 posts
Posted on 7/25/26 at 8:54 am
This is another profitable small cap multi year compounder that I plan to hold for years, as the battery theme is extremely relevant to the secular build out.

I own 60 calls for February with a $10 strike. Currently underwater with a 2.38 avg.

I’ll let you know if I give up on the trade or go back to shares.
Company is going to be fine. Not sure about options in this environment…

Claude. This is not biased toward my position at all.



Company Profile — Electrovaya (75 words) Electrovaya (Nasdaq/TSX: ELVA) is a Toronto-based lithium-ion battery company. Its proprietary Infinity technology is built for safety and long life in heavy-duty use, and its main business is powering warehouse forklifts and material-handling vehicles. It's now pushing into robotics, defense, and energy storage, and building its first U.S. cell-manufacturing plant (a "gigafactory") in Jamestown, New York. Unlike many small battery makers, it's actually profitable, with a roughly $410M market value and earnings due mid-August.

ELVA — The Stock Now

~$8.30, down 50%+ from its ~$13 peak nine days ago — but that's roughly back to the pre-Amazon price, so the whole spike has unwound.
Part market-wide selling of a jumpy small stock, part fair reset: the Amazon warrants only pay off if Amazon actually buys $280M of batteries over time.
~$410M market value; trades at ~5x forward sales (on this year's ~$83M revenue guidance) — cheaper than before, still not "cheap."
Strong Buy ratings, targets $16–20; next catalyst is earnings in mid-August.

ELVA — Business, Growth & Gross Margins

~80–85% of revenue is batteries for warehouse forklifts (the steady core); robotics is now #2 and growing; defense and energy storage are mostly 2027 stories.
Revenue grew ~20% last quarter; full-year guidance is >30%.
Gross margin rose to ~33%, but mainly from selling a richer mix of products, not from cutting costs.
The real cost-saving lever — making its own cells at a new Jamestown, NY plant — is a 2027 event with build-out and share-dilution risk. Profitable 12+ straight quarters, which is rare here.

ELVA — Customers

Named and solid in the core: Amazon (~10-year relationship) and Raymond/Toyota (forklift dealer network).
The growth verticals stay anonymous: a "major robotics OEM" and a "global defense contractor," no names given.
So part of the story rests on customers you can't independently verify — normal for the industry, but a real gap.

ELVA vs. AMPX (Amprius) — Head to Head

Price tag: ELVA ~5x forward sales; AMPX far pricier at ~11x forward sales (~$1.4B value on $130M+ guided revenue).
Growth: AMPX is growing much faster (~150% last quarter) but ELVA is steadier and less hype-driven.
Profit & gross margin: ELVA is profitable with ~33% gross margins; AMPX loses money heavily (roughly –60% net margin) on lower ~20% gross margins, targeting 25%.

Focus: ELVA = warehouse/industrial batteries; AMPX = high-energy silicon-anode cells for drones, aviation and defense. Both report earnings within two weeks.

Bull vs. Bear (~85 words)

Bull: Real revenue, real profit, and rising gross margins — rare for a small battery maker, and far healthier than money-losing peers like AMPX. Amazon and Toyota anchor the core, robotics and defense open new markets, and today's price hands you the Amazon upside almost free.

Bear: Still not a bargain (~5x forward sales). Growth is lumpy, the flashiest customers are unnamed, and the biggest margin and revenue payoffs are 2027 bets riding on a costly factory. It swings hard when markets turn nervous.

Analysis of public data, not financial advice.

I’M TOTALLY OUT OF SONY, CCXI, and others recently mentioned.
Options are not great for Sony and I’d need 100k in it to make it worth buying commons with the long theme.

I saw the chop and exited CCXI warrants at 40% gains.
Everything is back to NBIS, OUST, ELVA. We need a rebound in the market haha
This post was edited on 7/25/26 at 3:27 pm
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
26207 posts
Posted on 7/25/26 at 8:54 am to
Earnings preview (8/13)



This post was edited on 7/25/26 at 3:26 pm
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
26207 posts
Posted on 7/25/26 at 8:55 am to
Interesting read. It looks like the founder's son has it headed in the right direction.
Electrovaya's history matters more than most, because a company that only turned its first profit at age 29 has a long story explaining why it took so long — and whether the recent success is durable. Here's the arc.

The founders and the original vision

Electrovaya was started in 1996 by two battery scientists, Dr. Sankar Das Gupta and Dr. Jim Jacobs, and went public on the Toronto Stock Exchange in late 2000. From the beginning it was a technology-and-patents company more than a products company — it held a large patent portfolio and a proprietary ceramic separator that keeps its cells from catching fire when they overheat. The founding vision was big and diffuse: be a lithium-ion pioneer across everything from consumer gadgets to electric cars to grid storage. Early on it even built one of the first tablet computers (the Scribbler) and a portable charger, years ahead of the market but commercially premature.

The long detour

For most of its first two decades, Electrovaya chased large markets and scaled in none of them. Tablets went nowhere, the EV and grid-storage ambitions never reached volume, and the company lurched through repeated ups and downs. The low point came with Litarion, a German cell-and-materials subsidiary it had acquired for the ceramic-separator technology that's now central to its products. Litarion entered insolvency in January 2018, an administrator seized its assets, and the proceedings weren't settled until June 2021. Through this stretch its auditors repeatedly flagged material uncertainty about the company's ability to continue as a going concern, and it survived on a steady drip of dilutive equity and debt.

The pivot that eventually saved it was one of narrowing, not expanding:
the company refocused on batteries for material-handling electric vehicles — forklifts and warehouse trucks, a niche where its safety and long-life advantages actually commanded a premium (multi-shift operations replacing lead-acid). It stopped trying to boil the ocean and found a beachhead.

The handoff and the re-rating

The turnaround tracks closely with a leadership change. In June 2022, Raj DasGupta — the founder's son, a Cambridge-trained materials engineer who had been driving the commercial side — became CEO, with his father moving to executive chairman. The next two years were about legitimizing the company: a 1-for-5 reverse stock split in June 2023 that collapsed roughly 165 million shares down to about 33 million to meet listing requirements, an uplisting to Nasdaq that year, and government-backed financing for a U.S. plant (a $51 million Export-Import Bank loan for the Jamestown, New York manufacturing site).

First profits — and the track record

Here's the direct answer to your key question: fiscal 2025, the year ended September 30, 2025, was Electrovaya's **first profitable year — after nearly three decades**. It posted record revenue of $63.8 million (up 43%), net profit of $3.3 million ($0.09/share), and adjusted EBITDA of $8.8 million. Notably, operating profitability came well before bottom-line profitability — it had strung together ten-plus consecutive quarters of positive adjusted EBITDA before the GAAP net income finally turned positive.

On hitting targets, you have to separate two eras. The deep history is a record of *missing* grand visions — tablets, EVs, grid, Litarion all disappointed. The recent record, by contrast, is genuinely good: management has reaffirmed and beaten its guidance, FY2025 beat internal guidance by over 5%, and growth has continued into fiscal 2026. So credibility is real but young — earned over about two to three years, against a much longer backdrop of over-promising.

Capital allocation and how they treat shareholders

This is the most nuanced part, and the honest read is mixed.

On cash allocation, the old pattern was poor — decades of burning capital on markets that never scaled, with the Litarion acquisition ending in insolvency. But the recent discipline is clearly better: rather than funding the Jamestown build purely with stock, they've leaned on government-backed debt (the EXIM loan, a BMO facility) and IRA manufacturing tax credits, and directed the spending toward focused capacity with a real demand signal behind it.

On shareholder friendliness, the alignment is strong but the dilution is the standing knock. The DasGupta family has serious skin in the game — chairman Sankar Das Gupta holds roughly 23.7% and actually added to it in January 2026 by exercising warrants and injecting about $1.3 million, and insiders have been net buyers over the past year. That's the friendly side. The unfriendly side: the share count has repeatedly ballooned, a November 2025 follow-on raised about $24.4 million, the Amazon warrant deal adds another large tranche of potential shares, and there are no dividends or buybacks. Management's interests are aligned with yours, but your slice keeps getting cut thinner.

The takeaway from the history: this is a founder-family business that spent 29 years searching for a model that works, finally found one, and has run it well for about three years. The recent execution is real — but the long arc argues for watching whether that discipline holds through the capital-hungry Jamestown phase, rather than assuming the turnaround is finished.
This post was edited on 7/25/26 at 3:39 pm
Posted by jp4lsu
Member since Sep 2016
7497 posts
Posted on 7/25/26 at 12:12 pm to
Good info. Thanks for this.
Posted by LP2OP
Member since May 2025
50 posts
Posted on 7/25/26 at 1:18 pm to
Thanks for the individual thread bb. I’m in for a small amount and will be looking to add to the position over the next year.
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
26207 posts
Posted on 7/25/26 at 3:47 pm to
One more piece of info for now that gets into just a bit more detail:

Just how bad it got

By 2017–2019, Electrovaya was a survival story, not a growth story. Its auditors were stamping going-concern warnings on the financials — formal language meaning they doubted the company could keep operating. Its German subsidiary Litarion collapsed into insolvency in early 2018, taking a chunk of the balance sheet with it. The stock was a penny-stock afterthought, and the share count had swollen toward 165 million as the company sold equity again and again just to keep the lights on. This was a company negotiating with its own mortality.

What "can't scale" actually looked like

Electrovaya had genuinely strong technology and almost no repeatable business. "Inability to scale" meant chasing electric cars, grid storage, and consumer gadgets all at once — winning pilots and demos in each, converting none into volume. Every deal was bespoke, every market wanted a different product, and nothing produced the repeat purchasing that turns revenue into a machine. Perpetually one project away from relevance, perpetually out of cash. A great battery with no flywheel behind it.

Who the narrowing won over

The pivot was to stop selling everywhere and sell forklift batteries. It worked because in a warehouse running three shifts, Electrovaya's safety and long life convert into hard dollars — no battery swaps, no charging downtime, lower cost than lead-acid. That's a case a procurement manager can sign off on.

The wins came in sequence:

- Raymond Corporation, a Toyota Industries company — a 2019 dealer agreement that let Raymond's sales-and-service network sell Electrovaya systems to its lift-truck customers. The foundational win: distribution, not a one-off.
- A Fortune 100 retailer — a 2023 order for its first distribution center, the classic land-and-expand beachhead that seeds fleet-wide adoption.
- Amazon — the roughly decade-long relationship, now its largest customer, formalized this year in the warrant deal.

Repeatable product, repeat buyers, a real channel. The flywheel it never had.

The road ahead: base, bull, bear

Base (most likely):The core forklift business keeps compounding at 20–30% as fleets electrify, robotics settles in as a solid second leg, and Jamestown ramps roughly on schedule. Electrovaya grows into a steadily profitable ~$150–200M supplier — a good business, not a moonshot, with the stock tracking earnings rather than dreams.

Bull: Robotics and defense inflect faster than expected, Amazon's purchases climb toward the warrant thresholds, and in-house cell manufacturing at Jamestown lifts margins structurally. Electrovaya becomes a recognized picks-and-shovels supplier to physical AI — the batteries inside the robots and autonomous vehicles being built right now. Revenue and multiple expand together. This is the 5x path.

Bear: It reverts to type. Forklift orders stay lumpy, robotics and defense customers linger in "evaluation," and the capital-hungry Jamestown build forces more dilutive raises before it pays off. Profitability was real but thin, and one stumble through the capex cycle reopens every old question. The batteries still work; the business just proves harder to scale than the last two years suggested.

The honest weighting: base is most probable, the bull case leans on customers you can't yet independently verify, and the bear case is the one Electrovaya's own history should keep you humble about — this is a company that has been left for dead before.

Raymond James just issued a $22 one year price target. I'd be thrilled with $16.
Posted by iPad
Find Me At An Apple Store Near You
Member since Nov 2025
1527 posts
Posted on 7/25/26 at 3:59 pm to
Thanks for organizing the ELVA thoughts into a thread. Appreciate your research.
Posted by jerryc436
Franklin
Member since Jan 2014
738 posts
Posted on 7/25/26 at 4:33 pm to
I have 200 shares avg cost $8.50 and 3 Feb Calls avg price $2.62. I need to add some calls to bring my avg down but waiting on dry powder. I have a large sum, for me tied up in OUST. When it recovers I will probably sell some of my calls to free up dry powder.
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
26207 posts
Posted on 7/25/26 at 5:09 pm to
I’m in a similar situation!
I can probably handle one more position, but that’s about it.
Posted by Boomer Rick
Member since Apr 2021
438 posts
Posted on 7/26/26 at 12:41 am to
Looks like a dog shite company.
Posted by GBPackTigers
Louisiana
Member since Sep 2009
1671 posts
Posted on 7/26/26 at 9:06 am to
I will be following closely.

Just wanted to say we appreciate what you do, bb. Thanks for all the stock tips you give daily and the research you bring.


Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
26207 posts
Posted on 7/27/26 at 4:36 pm to
I took a hit on the calls and went with shares.
1,200 of them at 8.22
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
26207 posts
Posted on 7/28/26 at 11:41 am to
Looked at the opportunities and saw that I was only down a bit on ELVA and actually made money on ZETA, so those had to go.

Back at 700 OUST at 33.33 avg.
Added calls in VIAV, DRAM, FPS, and AMKR.

Will revisit ELVA before and after earnings.
Posted by cadillacattack
the ATL
Member since May 2020
11550 posts
Posted on 8/3/26 at 7:25 am to
Thanks for sharing, …. always enjoy your thought provoking summaries.

Sounds like they’ve got a good, profitable core business that is encouraging.

The overview discusses their lithium-ion batteries being used to replace lead-acid batteries (forklifts, etc) as being their core. Their profit center.

That leads me to this ….. their claim that military and storage batteries are their future, but I question whether lithium-ion is the technology that will take them there …. and even if it did, wouldn’t they be be doing what they just spent a lot of time cleaning up? (incremental product lines that are difficult to scale?)

Robotics seem to be the fingers-crossed play here, IMO. But that is a very congested space …. very dependent on supply chain and sourcing.

Just some random thoughts. Good fortunes….
Posted by meeple
Carcassonne
Member since May 2011
11557 posts
Posted on 8/6/26 at 9:28 am to
Seeing a nice upward trend in this ?
Posted by meeple
Carcassonne
Member since May 2011
11557 posts
Posted on 8/7/26 at 2:05 pm to
Earnings announced for Monday 8/10. Who’s holding through it?
Posted by ynlvr
Rocket City
Member since Feb 2009
5663 posts
Posted on 8/7/26 at 2:09 pm to
Raises Hand
Posted by supadave3
Houston, TX
Member since Dec 2005
32509 posts
Posted on 8/7/26 at 2:14 pm to
I got a little handful.

This came in my radar the same time as Zeta and I leaned heavy in Zeta.

No ragrats
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
26207 posts
Posted on 8/7/26 at 2:48 pm to
I've got a bit.
Posted by zzgobucky
Madison
Member since Sep 2016
1864 posts
Posted on 8/10/26 at 4:23 pm to
This thing is getting destroyed
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