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re: Dow will be at 30,000 by early summer
Posted on 4/30/20 at 11:23 pm to hikingfan
Posted on 4/30/20 at 11:23 pm to hikingfan
I am getting a bit nervous here. Everything was on plan for ^DJI 30K here in the coming months, but we lost 280 points today and the futures for tomorrow show another drop >200 points. I hope it is not the beginning of the next bear market that leads to a second wave of deep Corona selloffs.
5
Posted on 4/30/20 at 11:34 pm to hikingfan
Posted on 4/30/20 at 11:46 pm to hikingfan
Great bump. I dont think we’ll see another massive drop off near what we saw at the start of this. Although we had a great amount recovered since this thread. I think we may see a pullback before states start opening up, but we’ll be mostly sideways until the election imo.
Posted on 5/1/20 at 1:06 am to hikingfan
Losing an entire quarter of productivity and having a percentage of businesses shutter permanently will weigh on the economy for the rest of the year at least. We will recover, but there’s no way the stock market will see new ATH that soon.
Posted on 5/1/20 at 1:39 am to LSU2a
I think we go to 23,000 in the next few weeks just because of the bad earnings that will be reported. Then we will go up quickly like it has been. Will repeat for Q2 earnings especially with amazon saying they might actually have a quarterly loss
Posted on 5/1/20 at 3:44 am to Lsutiger2424
This is a great time to get rid of quarterly reports. Too many decisions based on short term reporting. We need to go to annual reporting.
Posted on 5/1/20 at 5:04 am to hikingfan
quote:The Dow would have struggled to Top 30K by early summer, even w/o CV19. PE's in Jan and Feb were quite high. We were due for a pull back IMO.
Dow will be at 30,000 by early summer
Meanwhile as the DJIA climbed to >29K, unemployment hovered at record lows. Now, with the market <20% off its all-time highs, unemployment may top record highs by June.
When I hear happy-go-lucky market projections, I don't think full scope of our unemployment picture and the shutdown's economic impact have been absorbed.
I'm concerned the effect is akin to a tornado strike. You hunker safe and sound in the stormshelter until the noise passes, and think "that wasn't so bad." But when you emerge, your house is gone along with the whole neighborhood.
When we actually start opening the economy back up, and see what this CV19 tornado has done, I think we're going to be in for a tough summer. Perhaps green shoots showing just before Fall. But there is a lot of downside risk between now and then.
Hopefully I'm wrong, but when the market pushed toward 25K on Wednesday. I took profits and picked up some inverse funds.
Posted on 5/1/20 at 5:08 am to Sput
quote:
Dow: 30,000
CNN Headline: Trump illegally killing bears out of season
Posted on 5/1/20 at 8:12 am to NC_Tigah
It’s amazing to me that people think things are just going to snap back or that the market is “looking past” the next quarter or two, as if a severe economic disruption is just a blip on the radar that has no lasting impact on earnings growth.
The market can look out as far as it wants to, but the fact is we are now on a fundamentally different trajectory than before. The net effect of two or so quarters of negative GDP growth will take companies who took out more debt and deferred capex a while to get back to where they were previously.
There’s no way you can justify a valuation at or near where we were before this massive supply and demand shock.
The market can look out as far as it wants to, but the fact is we are now on a fundamentally different trajectory than before. The net effect of two or so quarters of negative GDP growth will take companies who took out more debt and deferred capex a while to get back to where they were previously.
There’s no way you can justify a valuation at or near where we were before this massive supply and demand shock.
This post was edited on 5/1/20 at 8:14 am
Posted on 5/1/20 at 8:18 am to hikingfan
Dow ain’t going to 30,000 anytime soon in this economy
Posted on 5/1/20 at 9:36 am to hikingfan
BA made the Dow underperform SPX and Naz.
Dow would have easily hit 30k in Feb.
Dow would have easily hit 30k in Feb.
This post was edited on 5/2/20 at 2:13 pm
Posted on 5/1/20 at 5:08 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
Meanwhile as the DJIA climbed to >29K, unemployment hovered at record lows. Now, with the market <20% off its all-time highs, unemployment may top record highs by June.
When I hear happy-go-lucky market projections, I don't think full scope of our unemployment picture and the shutdown's economic impact have been absorbed.
The thing is the folks going unemployed aren’t the significant players or movers of the market. They are mostly retail types, teachers, flight attendants and waitress types losing jobs. The top 1% households owns something like a bit under 40% of all market shares. And only about half of the population owns any.
I think that’s why we’ve seen the market nearly recover already despite all these people being unemployed, their problem is artificial and temporary. The folks that are part of the all time high unemployment may own something like 10% of the market.... maybe.
You may be right that some projections are happy-go-lucky and that the impact hasn’t been absorbed... or the brunt of the impact was absorbed by people with maybe 10% influence, and the big movers understand the impact is mostly temporary and artificial.
Posted on 5/1/20 at 10:10 pm to hikingfan
If so, it will be massively over valued
Posted on 5/2/20 at 7:01 am to SlidellCajun
It is overvalued at current levels.
We are the United States of the Federal Reserve. Too much low grade debt out there and financial issues prior to covid19.
5/1 was a good technical indicator that we trend lower over the next 3-4 months.
We are the United States of the Federal Reserve. Too much low grade debt out there and financial issues prior to covid19.
5/1 was a good technical indicator that we trend lower over the next 3-4 months.
Posted on 5/2/20 at 1:46 pm to hikingfan
quote:
Everything was on plan for ^DJI 30K here in the coming months
Posted on 5/2/20 at 6:45 pm to AMS
how many more bullets can this president and the fed keep shooting here? starting to get more nervous the longer this last.
Posted on 5/2/20 at 8:11 pm to hikingfan
Welp heres to your optimism and 4 more years...like where your hearts at.
Posted on 5/2/20 at 8:37 pm to FLObserver
Well since our money isn’t really backed by anything except faith that its worth what its worth, I’m guessing they have plenty of ammo.
The other scenario is a nearly cataclysmic event. So were either safe or entirely screwed.
The other scenario is a nearly cataclysmic event. So were either safe or entirely screwed.
Posted on 5/2/20 at 9:23 pm to hikingfan
Posted on 5/2/20 at 9:30 pm to tiger81
quote:
Think going back to a restaurant after an ecoli breakout. Will be a process
Why?
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