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re: Private Equity investment. Anyone used PE to generate alpha? - RedStickBR
PE is another victim of low rates. As investors search for yield in a low yield world, they go further and further out the risk curve. Generally speaking, the lower the risk of an investment, the larger the market, such that the bond market > the equity market > the PE market > the VC market. As ...
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re: Discussion of Fed Liquidity’s Impact on Equity Markets - RedStickBR
I’m sure you’ve noticed King Dollar throwing its weight around here recently …...
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re: Discussion of Fed Liquidity’s Impact on Equity Markets - RedStickBR
Any uptick at all today? And that chart may go down as the poster child of distortions in financial markets. :lol:...
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re: It’s Fed day; put your predictions here. - RedStickBR
I don’t find it coincidental that the $3.5T build back better plan is talking about being trimmed back on the same day that Powell admitted inflation is hotter than expected and yields are blowing out. If 10y goes back towards 1.7%, might be a good Treasury buying opportunity on a bet the fiscal ...
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re: Discussion of Fed Liquidity’s Impact on Equity Markets - RedStickBR
Today’s macro heat map is doing what you would expect to see if everyone went risk-off. Not saying that’s happening, just noting the pattern: 1. Nasdaq down more than S&P down more than DJIA 2. Yields up 3. Dollar up That, to me, is the quintessential risk-off combo. Did I miss any?...
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re: Discussion of Fed Liquidity’s Impact on Equity Markets - RedStickBR
Sure, so when the original post was made, there was a lot of commentary out there that the “Fed’s QE was making its way into the market.” The original purpose of the thread was to (a) determine whether or not that could actually be proven to be true and (b) if so, how one could “follow the money,” s...
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re: Discussion of Fed Liquidity’s Impact on Equity Markets - RedStickBR
So the Fed basically started selling Treasuries to get rates back up to a point that other people wanted to buy them? ...
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re: Discussion of Fed Liquidity’s Impact on Equity Markets - RedStickBR
I had to turn away for a minute, but do I have it right that he started off super dovish with no mention of taper in his prepared remarks and then snuck in “taper could be ended by middle of next year” and “could begin next month” in response to these last few questions?...
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re: Current Market - RedStickBR
:lol: That’s just blatantly false. I’ve said I think they should raise rates. I’ve said I think inflation or the market could or should cause them to raise rates. I’ve noted there were members of the FOMC who appeared to be becoming more open to raising rates sooner rather than later. But in no way ...
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re: Current Market - RedStickBR
[quote]For the health and well being of future generation I wish this market would correct and that that the Fed would taper and that they would raise interest rates. [/quote] +1...
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re: Current Market - RedStickBR
Retail investors have been so convinced of “buy the dip,” “there is no alternative,” “stonks only go up,” and “don’t fight the Fed,” that there is no way they get out in time. If the market tanks, they will go down with it. That said, there are at least some trading signals that may pique their inte...
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re: Futures look like crap - RedStickBR
:lol: When our banks get in trouble, we bail them out or call them too big to fail. Is CCP giving the world a lesson in capitalism, or will they end up doing the same thing we do?...
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re: Dedicated Short / Put Thread - RedStickBR
GSKY announced it was to be acquired by Goldman, so that hasn’t helped. Overall, though, still up triple digits on the strategy as a whole. It’s become more difficult recently, which might seem counterintuitive, but if you look at a chart of the Russell 2000, small caps haven’t sold off as much as y...
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re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter" - RedStickBR
I haven’t seen that yet, but I don’t doubt it. Can you imagine if they overcooked this thing so much so that Real GDP is negative this year? :lol: Also a good read: https://blog.ftx.com/blog/the-everything-bubble/...
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re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter" - RedStickBR
Good read: http://econbrowser.com/archives/2021/09/cpi-undershoot-illustrated...
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re: Putting the massive fiscal into perspective - RedStickBR
I’m not referring to paying it off entirely. Of course we shouldn’t do that. I could have been clearer on that point. I’m referring to even getting Debt to GDP down to a meaningful level short of financial repression, Fed monetizing the debt and then effectively writing it off, defaults and restr...
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re: Putting the massive fiscal into perspective - RedStickBR
That PPI report :lol: And we are basically beyond the y/y base effect comps at this point, yet Core y/y PPI just accelerated by 260bps compared to the first base effect month (May report for Apr month). That fiscal and monetary and unemployment benefit and eviction moratorium cliff we are about t...
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Putting the massive fiscal into perspective - RedStickBR
I came across this statistic today and it really got the macro wheels turning in terms of understanding just how large the trillions in US stimulus is. The electricity industry is the most capital intensive industry on the planet, with global capex of $780 billion. Oil and gas is second, with glo...
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re: Dedicated Short / Put Thread - RedStickBR
Thanks :cheers: I’ve intentionally tried to time stamp all my entries and exits. The strategy had a perfect track record up until JYNT, and I’m currently slightly in the red on a combined basis for the last three I posted about. But I’m hopeful that my macro view and the Russell 2000 flatlining m...
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re: Dedicated Short / Put Thread - RedStickBR
I mean ITM from a put perspective. So if a speculative small cap goes from 4 to 9 quickly and then begins to rollover, I wager that retail’s short attention span will cause them to unload and move on to the next thing. In that scenario, I may buy a put with a 10 strike....
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