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re: Private Equity investment. Anyone used PE to generate alpha? - RedStickBR on 10/9/21 at 1:22 am
PE is another victim of low rates. As investors search for yield in a low yield world, they go further and further out the risk curve. Generally speaking, the lower the risk of an investment, the larger the market, such that the bond market > the equity market > the PE market > the VC market. As ...Jump to Post - View Topic - Replies (0)
re: It’s Fed day; put your predictions here. - RedStickBR on 9/28/21 at 10:07 am
I don’t find it coincidental that the $3.5T build back better plan is talking about being trimmed back on the same day that Powell admitted inflation is hotter than expected and yields are blowing out. If 10y goes back towards 1.7%, might be a good Treasury buying opportunity on a bet the fiscal ...Jump to Post - View Topic - Replies (0)
re: Discussion of Fed Liquidity’s Impact on Equity Markets - RedStickBR on 9/28/21 at 9:59 am
Today’s macro heat map is doing what you would expect to see if everyone went risk-off. Not saying that’s happening, just noting the pattern: 1. Nasdaq down more than S&P down more than DJIA 2. Yields up 3. Dollar up That, to me, is the quintessential risk-off combo. Did I miss any?...Jump to Post - View Topic - Replies (2)
re: Discussion of Fed Liquidity’s Impact on Equity Markets - RedStickBR on 9/25/21 at 12:10 pm
Sure, so when the original post was made, there was a lot of commentary out there that the “Fed’s QE was making its way into the market.” The original purpose of the thread was to (a) determine whether or not that could actually be proven to be true and (b) if so, how one could “follow the money,” s...Jump to Post - View Topic - Replies (2)
re: Discussion of Fed Liquidity’s Impact on Equity Markets - RedStickBR on 9/22/21 at 1:45 pm
I had to turn away for a minute, but do I have it right that he started off super dovish with no mention of taper in his prepared remarks and then snuck in “taper could be ended by middle of next year” and “could begin next month” in response to these last few questions?...Jump to Post - View Topic - Replies (1)
re: Current Market - RedStickBR on 9/20/21 at 3:04 pm
:lol: That’s just blatantly false. I’ve said I think they should raise rates. I’ve said I think inflation or the market could or should cause them to raise rates. I’ve noted there were members of the FOMC who appeared to be becoming more open to raising rates sooner rather than later. But in no way ...Jump to Post - View Topic - Replies (1)
re: Current Market - RedStickBR on 9/20/21 at 1:50 pm
Retail investors have been so convinced of “buy the dip,” “there is no alternative,” “stonks only go up,” and “don’t fight the Fed,” that there is no way they get out in time. If the market tanks, they will go down with it. That said, there are at least some trading signals that may pique their inte...Jump to Post - View Topic - Replies (1)
re: Futures look like crap - RedStickBR on 9/20/21 at 8:16 am
:lol: When our banks get in trouble, we bail them out or call them too big to fail. Is CCP giving the world a lesson in capitalism, or will they end up doing the same thing we do?...Jump to Post - View Topic - Replies (1)
re: Dedicated Short / Put Thread - RedStickBR on 9/16/21 at 8:44 pm
GSKY announced it was to be acquired by Goldman, so that hasn’t helped. Overall, though, still up triple digits on the strategy as a whole. It’s become more difficult recently, which might seem counterintuitive, but if you look at a chart of the Russell 2000, small caps haven’t sold off as much as y...Jump to Post - View Topic - Replies (0)
re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter" - RedStickBR on 9/15/21 at 10:51 am
I haven’t seen that yet, but I don’t doubt it. Can you imagine if they overcooked this thing so much so that Real GDP is negative this year? :lol: Also a good read: https://blog.ftx.com/blog/the-everything-bubble/...Jump to Post - View Topic - Replies (0)
re: Putting the massive fiscal into perspective - RedStickBR on 9/10/21 at 11:47 am
I’m not referring to paying it off entirely. Of course we shouldn’t do that. I could have been clearer on that point. I’m referring to even getting Debt to GDP down to a meaningful level short of financial repression, Fed monetizing the debt and then effectively writing it off, defaults and restr...Jump to Post - View Topic - Replies (0)
re: Putting the massive fiscal into perspective - RedStickBR on 9/10/21 at 8:52 am
That PPI report :lol: And we are basically beyond the y/y base effect comps at this point, yet Core y/y PPI just accelerated by 260bps compared to the first base effect month (May report for Apr month). That fiscal and monetary and unemployment benefit and eviction moratorium cliff we are about t...Jump to Post - View Topic - Replies (1)
Putting the massive fiscal into perspective - RedStickBR on 9/9/21 at 10:12 pm
I came across this statistic today and it really got the macro wheels turning in terms of understanding just how large the trillions in US stimulus is. The electricity industry is the most capital intensive industry on the planet, with global capex of $780 billion. Oil and gas is second, with glo...Jump to Post - View Topic - Replies (5)
re: Dedicated Short / Put Thread - RedStickBR on 8/26/21 at 10:47 pm
Thanks :cheers: I’ve intentionally tried to time stamp all my entries and exits. The strategy had a perfect track record up until JYNT, and I’m currently slightly in the red on a combined basis for the last three I posted about. But I’m hopeful that my macro view and the Russell 2000 flatlining m...Jump to Post - View Topic - Replies (1)
re: Dedicated Short / Put Thread - RedStickBR on 8/26/21 at 10:44 pm
I mean ITM from a put perspective. So if a speculative small cap goes from 4 to 9 quickly and then begins to rollover, I wager that retail’s short attention span will cause them to unload and move on to the next thing. In that scenario, I may buy a put with a 10 strike....Jump to Post - View Topic - Replies (0)
This Report About Ed Orgeron Bringing "Girlfriends" To Practice Isn't Great
With "the children of the women taking part in drills with team."
Lane Kiffin Respond To Question About The LSU Job
And his relationship with Ed Orgeron.
Jimbo Fisher's Wife Chimes In On The LSU Job Chatter
Jimbo says he's happy in College Station.
Updated Odds Have A New Favorite To Land The LSU Job
According to BetOnline.
UL Coach Billy Napier Was Asked About The LSU Job On Monday
Here's what he said.
Ten Early Potential Coaching Candidates For The LSU Job, Plus Ten More
Let the search begin.
Saints Signing Former Pro Bowl Running Back
Kamara needs some support.
Video Of Ben Simmons At Practice Is Going Viral And For Good Reasons
Bro, figure it out.
Alabama WR Agiye Hall Posts Cryptic Postgame Tweet, Then Deletes It
Nothing is ever deleted.
Two Companies Could Be Interested In Buying ESPN
Someone save them.