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re: Dow Futures down 300...Nasdaq futures down 200.
Posted on 1/24/22 at 7:07 am to I Bleed Garnet
Posted on 1/24/22 at 7:07 am to I Bleed Garnet
I expect a further drop in the indices by 20-25% (driven mostly by inflation/interest rates but also by Russian invasion of Ukraine and maybe a Chinese invasion of Taiwan post Olympics), leveling out in April-May once market has had a few weeks to digest the first actual rate hike. How severe this gets will depend in part on how much the Fed actually withdraws liquidity from the market by selling bonds. If they actually do start lightening their balance sheet by $100B/month as has been suggested,look out below.
1
Posted on 1/24/22 at 7:12 am to go ta hell ole miss
quote:
Which of his policies do you support and have lead to economic growth and helped reduce inflation?
None.
He’s done nothing, which is why blaming him is short sighted.
I appreciate you actually replying with something that had some substance, but I believe those things are incredibly minor. Oil is a global commodity - Biden’s executive order might be responsible for a dollar or two per barrel.
As for the port issues, that problem had been building. The unemployment payments were a continuation of payments Trump signed that went into March. It hurt, sure, but inflation was running hot regardless. These were marginal issues, as they typically are.
The president and politics work on the margins of the global economy and the stock market. They’re incredibly minor players, and history has shown that time and time again.
Posted on 1/24/22 at 7:45 am to GeneralLee
quote:
I expect a further drop in the indices by 20-25% (driven mostly by inflation/interest rates but also by Russian invasion of Ukraine and maybe a Chinese invasion of Taiwan post Olympics), leveling out in April-May once market has had a few weeks to digest the first actual rate hike. How severe this gets will depend in part on how much the Fed actually withdraws liquidity from the market by selling bonds. If they actually do start lightening their balance sheet by $100B/month as has been suggested,look out below.
i take it you mostly cash now? trying to put some on the sidelines at least until a few interest rates hikes are done to see where the market is but will be adding a few shares of good companies on the way down. Some of the growth companies are tempting but may and will fall further. Dam you Upst/rblx etc..
but will DCA when we get some stability whenever that is.Posted on 1/24/22 at 7:55 am to FLObserver
Yep I'm 90%+ cash now, SABS warrants are my only position right now. Also in the process of buying SpaceX shares off the secondary market. I hope they don't go public for a long time, it's nice to just own a company that goes up 30-40% each year without having to check the stock price every day...
Maybe I should've shorted stuff on the way down here, but I've never really played that side before so was cautious and just decided to hoard cash. There will be crazy bounce back rallies too, short lived, but even short positions will be stressful holds in this environment.
Maybe I should've shorted stuff on the way down here, but I've never really played that side before so was cautious and just decided to hoard cash. There will be crazy bounce back rallies too, short lived, but even short positions will be stressful holds in this environment.
Posted on 1/24/22 at 8:11 am to Upperdecker
quote:
Early lead on futures is green. In my short and incomplete experience, Sunday futures tend to not reverse overnight. Green Day tomorrow bouncing off 200 EMA
Whoops.
Posted on 1/24/22 at 8:15 am to Upperdecker
quote:
Early lead on futures is green. In my short and incomplete experience, Sunday futures tend to not reverse overnight. Green Day tomorrow bouncing off 200 EMA
Posted on 1/24/22 at 8:16 am to ColoradoTiger1987
FUTURES DOWN -340
Posted on 1/24/22 at 8:21 am to GeneralLee
quote:
Maybe I should've shorted stuff on the way down here, but I've never really played that side before so was cautious and just decided to hoard cash
Same here i'm scared as hell of put options etc.. and all but recently purchased a few bear etf's and they have been doing well and relatively cheap. Just like owning a stock:
TZA , SPXS,RWM are the ones i own .why not make a little money while watching your holdings drop
Posted on 1/24/22 at 8:23 am to FLObserver
I've always been terrible at the market. How bad is this for timing. I started dumping money into it the week before last.
Just terrible. Already down 5%.
Just terrible. Already down 5%.
Posted on 1/24/22 at 8:29 am to DiamondDog
quote:
Already down 5%.
welcome to the club. If you have cash hold it until this kinda settles down or find some good companies and start avging in SLOWLY. More pain ahead looks like.
Posted on 1/24/22 at 8:33 am to rocky mountain way
Market has been getting slaughtered
Posted on 1/24/22 at 8:34 am to DiamondDog
I’ve caught too many falling knives to do that anymore. I wait until I see a pretty certain turn around
Posted on 1/24/22 at 8:38 am to Upperdecker
quote:
Early lead on futures is green. In my short and incomplete experience, Sunday futures tend to not reverse overnight. Green Day tomorrow bouncing off 200 EMA
Oof
Posted on 1/24/22 at 8:43 am to slackster
quote:
He’s done nothing, which is why blaming him is short sighted. I appreciate you actually replying with something that had some substance, but I believe those things are incredibly minor. Oil is a global commodity - Biden’s executive order might be responsible for a dollar or two per barrel.
So when people don’t respond with substance you say “no facts”. When someone responds with lots of facts you minimize (you think all of that was one minor executive order? he’s been on a total assault of oil and fossil fuels since the moment he got into office freezing up any desire to invest more money, which is going to be long term problem until a Republican gets in office and unwinds everything he’s done). Got it. It’s not your fault, it’s my fault for trying to rationalize with someone like you. I am the one to blame in situations like this.
This post was edited on 1/25/22 at 5:08 pm
Posted on 1/24/22 at 8:51 am to FLObserver
i am hedged with SDS
Posted on 1/24/22 at 8:54 am to Fat Bastard
Won't stop bleeding until around 30,0000 on the DOW. Could get worse than that if headlines such as Russia/Ukraine get ugly. Buckle up. Cash is king until March or April.
Posted on 1/24/22 at 9:04 am to Bigdavewave
quote:
Cash is king until March or April.
frick that. i will make money trading futures, real estate , etc. i do not rely solely on stock market.
but i will hedge shorting this shite until it stops. i will just get more shares of my dividend payers and load up on cheaper prices.
Posted on 1/24/22 at 9:06 am to Bigdavewave
quote:
Cash is king until March or April.
No doubt, but what are yall’s thoughts on REITs for the near term ? Thinking i may park some cash in VGSLX or similar, i already have some in Fundrise, which is the only thing doing decent for me now.. all my crypto , stocks, even TSLA in the toilet currently .
Posted on 1/24/22 at 9:07 am to Bigdavewave
Jesus
This just keeps getting worse
This just keeps getting worse
Posted on 1/24/22 at 9:28 am to I Bleed Garnet
Man oh man, vix explosion, inflation out of control and the dxy is going straight up. What a crazy situation the fed has here. I dont think they can make the right decision.
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