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re: Diving deeper on Standard Lithium?

Posted on 5/30/23 at 10:05 pm to
Posted by ev247
Member since Nov 2022
444 posts
Posted on 5/30/23 at 10:05 pm to
I think I'm following. A lot of shorting (selling) floods the market so that drives down the price. This may be a dumb question but here goes. When a bunch of shorts happen, so do a bunch of buys, right? So the price would really come down to the sentiment more than just supply/demand?

Also, sounds like Lanxess might still have the right to product discount even if they don't invest

Old SLI PR

Hoping the Lanxess DFS/FID and SWA PFS give us some momentum into construction.
Posted by ev247
Member since Nov 2022
444 posts
Posted on 5/30/23 at 10:33 pm to
Wow, thanks for this rundown. I had only read the Hindenburg report which succeeded in shaking my confidence in Mintak. Fortunately, we began getting some good PR before I could break even and run away, and I've since grown more confident with each PR. Enough about me.

I guess "Our research wasn't perfect" is a sufficient defense in this field. What a clever and wicked business to run. And even if an FeMike sends a certified (undeniable) letter laying out the canyon in their reasoning, their damage is already done as they walk to the bank.

The suit just begged the question, do these lawyers break into SLI periodically to disprove their tech? Why would a lawyer even take up such a flawed case? What a world.
Posted by Fe_Mike
Member since Jul 2015
3538 posts
Posted on 5/31/23 at 5:32 am to
quote:

When a bunch of shorts happen, so do a bunch of buys, right?


Technically yes. Every seller must have a buyer. But not all are created equal. If more are selling than buying, the price will drop to find more buyers to equal the amount of sellers. There are two prices for a stock. The ‘bid’ and the ‘ask’. They are usually spread apart in value and different from the actual price the stock is trading at. So pretend there are two parties with interest in the stock. One is trying to buy a $1 stock and puts in a bid saying they will pay $0.99 for it. The other is trying to sell the same $1 stock and is ‘asking’ $1.01 for it.

If a trade is executed at the ‘ask’ it is considered a buy because the parties decided the value was $1.01 instead of $1; stock value is higher than market. If a trade is executed at the ‘bid’ level, it is generally considered a sale because at a simplified level it means the seller decided they couldn’t get the $1.01 they were asking and dropped the value to $0.99 so they could make the deal. Thus the value of the stock drops. This is generally what happens for a short sale.
This post was edited on 5/31/23 at 5:33 am
Posted by Dock Holiday
Member since Sep 2015
1743 posts
Posted on 5/31/23 at 3:58 pm to
Interesting that it ended sideways today on a day the larger market took some hits. Had to slowly climb all day after profit takers early, interesting indeed...
Posted by ev247
Member since Nov 2022
444 posts
Posted on 5/31/23 at 9:19 pm to
Thank you for explaining, FeMike. This is much clearer now.


For fun, upcoming catalysts:

1. Lanxess DFS (estimated 6/31/23)
2. SWA PFS (estimated 6/31/23)
3. Lanxess FID (9/30/23?)
4. SWA offtake agreement(s) (2023?)
5. Lanxess 1a construction (2024?)

Missing anything?
This post was edited on 5/31/23 at 9:38 pm
Posted by Capt ST
High Plains
Member since Aug 2011
13329 posts
Posted on 6/1/23 at 1:01 am to
Don’t overlook Koch’s continued involvement in the company. Wouldn’t be surprised if they take a larger stake.
Posted by Beerinthepocket
Dallas
Member since May 2011
871 posts
Posted on 6/1/23 at 7:27 am to
A federal government grant is a possibility too. I think Congressman Westerman visiting Standard Lithium was a good sign as far as that goes.
Posted by ev247
Member since Nov 2022
444 posts
Posted on 6/1/23 at 7:52 am to
Good point. I remember someone on here saying that a project needed to be x far along to be grant eligible. I wonder what that point is, we can’t be too far off now..
Posted by Elusiveporpi
Below I-10
Member since Feb 2011
2639 posts
Posted on 6/1/23 at 8:18 am to
Also, just for fun:

quote:

For fun, upcoming catalysts:

1. Lanxess DFS (estimated 6/31/23)- One Jetski
2. SWA PFS (estimated 6/31/23)- Dual Power poles on the boat
3. Lanxess FID (9/30/23?)- Second Jetski
4. SWA offtake agreement(s) (2023?) Tandem trailer for jetski's
5. Lanxess 1a construction (2024?) F250 W/ truck nuts


2025- Commissioning/Startup- Catalina Wine Mixer
This post was edited on 6/1/23 at 8:22 am
Posted by BigPerm30
Member since Aug 2011
29395 posts
Posted on 6/1/23 at 11:40 am to
Realistically, what's the upside of the stock price? Are we talking $20, $50, $100? I need to see what type of F250 I'll be buying.
Posted by Elusiveporpi
Below I-10
Member since Feb 2011
2639 posts
Posted on 6/1/23 at 12:44 pm to
IDK.

Looking back at the PFS, here are the numbers. Note that the #'s were based off of a selling price of $14,500 per ton. It has been up to $70,000 per ton and is currently at $30,000 per tonne.

IM sure someone knows how to evaluate a stock price from looking at the profit #'s.

Also keep in mind that this is one of several sites in the works.

quote:

Table 1: PEA Highlights

Units Values
Average Annual Production (as LiOH•H2O) tpa[1] 30,000[2]
Plant Operation years 20
Total Capital Cost (CAPEX) US$ 869,868,000[3]
Operating Cost (OPEX) per year US$/yr 77,972,000[4]
OPEX per tonne US$/t 2,599
Initial Selling Price US$/t 14,500[5]
Average Annual Revenue US$ 570,076,000[6]
Discount Rate % 8.0

Net Present Value (NPV) Pre-Tax US$ 2,830,190,000
Net Present Value (NPV) Post-Tax US$ 1,965,427,000
Internal Rate of Return (IRR) Pre-Tax % 40.5
Internal Rate of Return (IRR) Post-Tax % 32.1


Posted by jamiegla1
Member since Aug 2016
7560 posts
Posted on 6/1/23 at 1:12 pm to
quote:

Realistically, what's the upside of the stock price? Are we talking $20, $50, $100? I need to see what type of F250 I'll be buying.

exactly. lets cut the shite. how rich will I be in 2 years
Posted by Elusiveporpi
Below I-10
Member since Feb 2011
2639 posts
Posted on 6/1/23 at 1:25 pm to
$33 per share with current lithium price in 2026.

IDK, I sure i would sell waayyyyy before it got that high
Posted by Shepherd88
Member since Dec 2013
4802 posts
Posted on 6/2/23 at 12:28 pm to
Has anyone looked at the debt ceiling bill to see energy funding?

The FB group dude is saying there’s expanded legislation that fits the bill for SLI.
Posted by Lightning
Texas
Member since May 2014
2887 posts
Posted on 6/2/23 at 1:00 pm to
I didn't see anything in there about energy funding but there is a section that is supposed to streamline the environmental permitting process.

quote:

The package also includes new measures in the National Environmental Policy Act aimed at boosting the coordination, predictability and certainty associated with federal agency decision making, according to the White House source.

It will designate a single lead agency, charged with developing a single environmental review document, and also will require agencies to complete environmental reviews in one year, or two years for the most environmentally complex projects.
Posted by lighter345
Member since Jan 2009
11892 posts
Posted on 6/2/23 at 1:01 pm to
WSJ: The Surprising New Source for Lithium Batteries

Don’t have WSJ but picture is of the SLI and they are mentioned.
Posted by Lightning
Texas
Member since May 2014
2887 posts
Posted on 6/2/23 at 1:05 pm to
LINK to unpaywalled article

Nice find - did SLI finally participate in some well-time PR?!
Posted by Shepherd88
Member since Dec 2013
4802 posts
Posted on 6/2/23 at 1:27 pm to
Holey sheeyut that’s awesome.
Posted by Wraytex
San Antonio - Gonzales
Member since Jun 2020
2899 posts
Posted on 6/2/23 at 2:23 pm to
Pulled my sell order on my October calls when I saw your WSJ story.
Posted by Grassy1
Member since Oct 2009
7321 posts
Posted on 6/2/23 at 2:45 pm to
All the sneaky stuff comes out on Fridays.
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