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re: Can someone explain to me how the stock market is at all time highs right now?
Posted on 2/5/21 at 10:57 am to slackster
Posted on 2/5/21 at 10:57 am to slackster
quote:
Market returns over the next decade are likely to be much lower than they were the previous one, but the alternatives are few and far between.
Current interest rates are forcing money into the markets.
1
Posted on 2/5/21 at 10:57 am to Scruffy
I suspect that once we start to actually reopen and the government stimulus train stops or even slows down, we will see some kind of correction. The fallout for evictions, mortgages, etc hasn't happened yet. I don't think we're looking at a massive bubble pop or anything though as the fed has proven they'll do whatever is necessary to prop the market up.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 10:58 am to Scruffy
the main point is with the influx of cash, its time to make hay.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 11:31 am to Scruffy
Fed, Trump and Biden printing money in way never done before.
It is really scary.
I can tell you that inflation is already here. The FED may not acknowledge it but raw materials and commodities are going through the roof.
It is really scary.
I can tell you that inflation is already here. The FED may not acknowledge it but raw materials and commodities are going through the roof.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 11:34 am to Scruffy
quote:
Can someone explain to me how the stock market is at all time highs right now?
History is repeating itself.
Have you heard of the Roaring Twenties ?
They have returned. But i do believe it will not end well.
The crash is coming.
Eat and Drink for tomorrow we die.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 11:34 am to JDGTiger
quote:I suspect that will increase SIGNIFICANTLY too.
Fed, Trump and Biden printing money in way never done before.
quote:Really?
I can tell you that inflation is already here. The FED may not acknowledge it but raw materials and commodities are going through the roof.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 11:49 am to Scruffy
quote:
It lasted, what, 6 months?
It lasted about 6 weeks. Valentine's thru March.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 11:51 am to JDGTiger
Which commodities?
Wood has been affected by the insane amount of building which is supply/demand function based on interest rates and some supply issues with hurricanes.
Grains have been benign for like 5 years with year after year record yields. SBM and Corn are only just starting to make signifying gains for the first time in years.
Oil?
This alleged “crash” has been coming since the 80s. Still waiting for it.
Wood has been affected by the insane amount of building which is supply/demand function based on interest rates and some supply issues with hurricanes.
Grains have been benign for like 5 years with year after year record yields. SBM and Corn are only just starting to make signifying gains for the first time in years.
Oil?
This alleged “crash” has been coming since the 80s. Still waiting for it.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 11:52 am to JDGTiger
quote:There is a decade's worth of inflation reflected in the financial markets.
I can tell you that inflation is already here.
That's where all the brrr money went.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 11:53 am to Scruffy
quote:
Can someone explain to me how the stock market is at all time highs right now?
Because on average, the market is usually higher than it was previously. S&P averages around a 12% increase per year. So you're more or less going to be at or near an all-time high a lot of the time.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 11:57 am to FinleyStreet
As long as significant risk continues to stay out of banks and illicit mortgage approvals, things aren’t going to collapse.
If we survived 2008, which was a colossal frick up at every level, nothing Chernobyl is going to happen anytime soon.
Worst case they’ll just go full on Europe and take the highest 5% money at 50% and we will be a European socialist economy and Chinas bitch. We’re already heading that way but it’s not going to kill everyone and we still have muh guns.
Y’all need to chill TF out.
If we survived 2008, which was a colossal frick up at every level, nothing Chernobyl is going to happen anytime soon.
Worst case they’ll just go full on Europe and take the highest 5% money at 50% and we will be a European socialist economy and Chinas bitch. We’re already heading that way but it’s not going to kill everyone and we still have muh guns.
Y’all need to chill TF out.
This post was edited on 2/5/21 at 11:58 am
Posted on 2/5/21 at 12:13 pm to Shamoan
quote:
the main point is with the influx of cash, its time to make hay.
if you are not buying now, you just dont like money
Posted on 2/5/21 at 12:14 pm to STLhog
quote:
Y’all need to chill TF out.
market fear is good, it creates opportunities that have staying power. despite what gordon gekko said, greed is the opposite of good when it comes to making money in equities
Posted on 2/5/21 at 12:15 pm to Scruffy
quote:
Does no one fear a sustained crash?
Sure, it'll happen again. But like others have said, then you just get stocks on sale. And if it gets worse than that, your money in the bank won't matter much either.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 12:27 pm to STLhog
quote:
Which commodities?
Steel is up a ridiculous amount in the last several months. Wood prices nearly doubled over a short span too (a few months back).
Posted on 2/5/21 at 12:29 pm to Scruffy
Best way I can explain it to you:
Draw a chart with 4 quadrants.
Y axis = returns; X axis = risk
Top Left box = High returns and low risk
Top Right box = High returns and high risk
Bottom Left box = Low returns and low risk
Bottom Right box = Low returns and high risk
Similar to 1999, market participants are currently assuming we’re in the top left box.
Our 2000 moment will be when enough people to tip the scales finally realize we’re in the bottom right box.
Draw a chart with 4 quadrants.
Y axis = returns; X axis = risk
Top Left box = High returns and low risk
Top Right box = High returns and high risk
Bottom Left box = Low returns and low risk
Bottom Right box = Low returns and high risk
Similar to 1999, market participants are currently assuming we’re in the top left box.
Our 2000 moment will be when enough people to tip the scales finally realize we’re in the bottom right box.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 12:33 pm to EarlyCuyler3
this is from the intro dossier of a research service is use
quote:
The goal is not to buy and hold but rather to be actively buying and holding. When the market drops, for those of us that are buying and holding, low returns on stocks keep prices depressed and allow us an extended opportunity to buy more shares that should eventually rise. This also gets back to one of CML Pro’s core philosophies: having the right mindset. When the market tumbles, if we are buying and holding, our mindsets go from one of fear (which often leads to panic selling) to one of encouragement. We’re getting investments we want to own for less.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 12:33 pm to RedStickBR
Until the Fed starts raising rates or we get another black swan like COVID, I think this crazy market is gonna keep trucking on. But when the music stops it's gonna get real ugly.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 12:34 pm to Scruffy
The value of stocks is not going up. The value of the dollar is going down.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 12:40 pm to fallguy_1978
If you got a stimulus check in 2020 that you didn't need to use immediately pay bills or buy necessities, your options were to stick it in a "high interest" savings account earning less than 1% interest or to put it in the stock market to see what could happen. Even a fairly conservative mutual fund could have given you a 40% return from April to now. If you used that $600 to buy 4 shares of TSLA in April, it would now be worth $3,400.
The interest rates near 0% turn everyone into a gambler.
The interest rates near 0% turn everyone into a gambler.
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