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Started By
Message
Can someone explain to me how the stock market is at all time highs right now?
Posted on 2/5/21 at 10:24 am
Posted on 2/5/21 at 10:24 am
Is there a big correction on the horizon?
I can’t comprehend how we have reached such heights at a time when financial uncertainty is so high.
Yes, I recognize that the federal government has been dumping pallets of cash into the system, but to continue the rise like this?
Are there people out there sounding alarm bells?
I’ve tried to dip my toes into understanding our convoluted system, and so much of it seems over my head.
Anatomy, physiology, pharmacology, all are easier to understand.
I can’t comprehend how we have reached such heights at a time when financial uncertainty is so high.
Yes, I recognize that the federal government has been dumping pallets of cash into the system, but to continue the rise like this?
Are there people out there sounding alarm bells?
I’ve tried to dip my toes into understanding our convoluted system, and so much of it seems over my head.
Anatomy, physiology, pharmacology, all are easier to understand.
This post was edited on 2/5/21 at 10:27 am
27
Posted on 2/5/21 at 10:25 am to Scruffy
quote:
Can someone explain to me how the stock market is at all time highs right now?
quote:
the federal government had been dumping pallets of cash into the system
Posted on 2/5/21 at 10:27 am to Scruffy
BRRRRRRRRRRR...
Posted on 2/5/21 at 10:27 am to Scruffy
quote:
Is there a big correction on the horizon?
Bring it on. I got time and money to buy at lows
Posted on 2/5/21 at 10:28 am to Scruffy
stimulus payments are the cheat code
Posted on 2/5/21 at 10:28 am to Scruffy
quote:
Yes, I recognize that the federal government has been dumping pallets of cash into the system, but to continue the rise like this?
This and no where else to park money since rates are so low.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 10:29 am to Scruffy
quote:
Are there people out there sounding alarm bells?
Plenty of people, but they don't think it is about to happen...imminently.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 10:29 am to TDsngumbo
quote:Does no one fear a sustained crash?
Bring it on. I got time and money to buy at lows
Hell, the early Covid crash was only a blip on the radar.
It lasted, what, 6 months?
This post was edited on 2/5/21 at 10:31 am
Posted on 2/5/21 at 10:30 am to Scruffy
are you asking when the right time to sell is before the correction? Bc id like to know that too
Posted on 2/5/21 at 10:31 am to Scruffy
The piper will be paid eventually.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 10:32 am to Scruffy
The market loves when the federal government prints money for some reason. The weaker the USD gets the more the market likes it.
I don’t understand it either.
I don’t understand it either.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 10:32 am to Scruffy
quote:
Does no one fear a sustained crash?
If/when America completely crashes, which if continued on the current trajectory will be within 50 years, money won’t matter anyway. May as well enjoy it while it lasts. We have absolutely failed the next generation and my kids snd grandkids will either be fighting a revolution or standing in breadlines . That reality is too utterly depressing to focus on.
Best case scenario is we break up into smaller countries and the south that controls all of the agriculture and ports can remain a somewhat non destitute form of government and society.
This post was edited on 2/5/21 at 10:33 am
Posted on 2/5/21 at 10:37 am to Scruffy
quote:
the federal government has been dumping pallets of cash into the system
Posted on 2/5/21 at 10:38 am to Nguyener
quote:My biggest concern overall.
If/when America completely crashes, which if continued on the current trajectory will be within 50 years, money won’t matter anyway. May as well enjoy it while it lasts. We have absolutely failed the next generation and my kids snd grandkids will either be fighting a revolution or standing in breadlines . That reality is too utterly depressing to focus on.
I mean, I’m practically illiterate when it comes to the NASDAQ and Dow Jones, etc., but it can’t be good if I think there are issues here.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 10:40 am to Scruffy
No one knows. If you had a good year last year, it's natural to take some profits and hold in cash in case things go south so you can buy more. Rinse repeat.
Or buy some downside protection as insurance, but that's a bit sifistocates.
Otherwise, if you're looking to go cash heavy waiting for the dip to happen, it's most likely not going to end well for you. Lots of people have been waiting for that dip for years and are still hurting from it. And even when things dipped (March last year), still didn't get in because "it'll dip more."
Good luck
Or buy some downside protection as insurance, but that's a bit sifistocates.
Otherwise, if you're looking to go cash heavy waiting for the dip to happen, it's most likely not going to end well for you. Lots of people have been waiting for that dip for years and are still hurting from it. And even when things dipped (March last year), still didn't get in because "it'll dip more."
Good luck
Posted on 2/5/21 at 10:40 am to Scruffy
quote:
Does no one fear a sustained crash?
Hell, the early Covid crash was only a blip on the radar.
It lasted, what, 6 months?
Ultimately it’s about interest rates. The lower they are, the more you should be willing to pay for a future dollar.
Forward PE of the market is 21.3x as of 1/31 according to JPMorgan. That’s about 1.4 standard deviations from the 25 year average, but is more understandable given the 10yr treasury rate at 1.1%.
Market returns over the next decade are likely to be much lower than they were the previous one, but the alternatives are few and far between.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 10:45 am to slackster
New question for you savants.
If the general philosophy regarding the market magically changed overnight and switched to more of a “long term stability” view (best way I could think of putting that), is there any feasible way to “correct” the system without simply allowing it to self-correct?
Or is the “fall” simply an inevitability at this point?
Just a philosophical discussion.
If the general philosophy regarding the market magically changed overnight and switched to more of a “long term stability” view (best way I could think of putting that), is there any feasible way to “correct” the system without simply allowing it to self-correct?
Or is the “fall” simply an inevitability at this point?
Just a philosophical discussion.
This post was edited on 2/5/21 at 10:45 am
Posted on 2/5/21 at 10:54 am to Scruffy
quote:
If the general philosophy regarding the market magically changed overnight and switched to more of a “long term stability” view (best way I could think of putting that), is there any feasible way to “correct” the system without simply allowing it to self-correct?
Or is the “fall” simply an inevitability at this point?
I’m not sure I entirely understand your question, but I’ll give it a go.
For the most part, the market is trying to figure out how much we should pay for a future dollar given all the data available. Long term stability of those dollars and the risk of those cash flows are baked in as much as possible.
There are some irrational things that happen, sure, but by and large the market is basically the best guess on the net present value of future cash flows.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 10:54 am to Scruffy
its about to get an injection of 2 trillion dollars. the government is spending its way out of a recession. its a melt-up.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 10:55 am to Scruffy
I am glad you started this thread. This subject has been weighing heavily on my mind, and I'm looking forward to reading the discussion from a Money Talk perspective.
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