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Started By
Message
Bloody few days, especially for me.
Posted on 6/30/15 at 3:57 pm
Posted on 6/30/15 at 3:57 pm
I'm down 18% from last weeks highs. Moving into energy was not a good move. Second time I have absolutely failed moving into energy. I've lost my touch in that space. I may just give it up.
I post this because in another thread people called BS on the returns I claimed and I said that my vol was really high and I was often wrong on bets. This is one of those times. I'm basically flat this year in a pretty decent market. i was blowing it up with my outer wall trades all year long and in less than a week it is all gone.
Please feel free to comisserate here.
I post this because in another thread people called BS on the returns I claimed and I said that my vol was really high and I was often wrong on bets. This is one of those times. I'm basically flat this year in a pretty decent market. i was blowing it up with my outer wall trades all year long and in less than a week it is all gone.
Please feel free to comisserate here.
10
Posted on 6/30/15 at 4:03 pm to TheHiddenFlask
Do you care to elaborate on moving into energy?
Posted on 6/30/15 at 4:24 pm to bayoubengals88
I think we have found a good floor on oil prices and I like what I'm seeing out of the LNG exportation business (I knownits a drop in the bucket, but I like where it as an indicator).
Trading energy is always an upside vs downside trade for me. I think the realistic short term ceiling is somewhere in the mid 70's and I think the floor is in the mid 50's. I don't expect to hit home runs here, but a nice double or triple would do me well here.
Trading energy is always an upside vs downside trade for me. I think the realistic short term ceiling is somewhere in the mid 70's and I think the floor is in the mid 50's. I don't expect to hit home runs here, but a nice double or triple would do me well here.
Posted on 6/30/15 at 4:39 pm to TheHiddenFlask
My tale of woe for the year is as follows...I'm down in the 18% to 20% range this for the year. I screwed up and got too greedy with Nasdaq futures early this year and felt the pain. Then the chop fest from February to now hit me another 7 to 10%. This is the life of a futures trader, though The last month or so have been good for me. I was long MIB futures so got hammered on Monday, but I was in early enough that I still got out of that trade with some profit.
I'm still not an energy fan because of the USD. If I had to pick a single sector I like financials going forward.
I'm still not an energy fan because of the USD. If I had to pick a single sector I like financials going forward.
This post was edited on 6/30/15 at 4:41 pm
Posted on 6/30/15 at 4:54 pm to LSU0358
Personally I'm not down or up until I sell. The inbetween stuff is just filler, and I've tried my best to not get really emotional about it either direction.
I made a lot of money in natural gas. I ended up giving a large portion back. It's the way it goes.
So the way I see it, is that if you haven't sold, there is really nothing to get worked up about. Same as I don't get why playing the stick fantasy game is entertaining. It's the way I am, I don't get the point.
I made a lot of money in natural gas. I ended up giving a large portion back. It's the way it goes.
So the way I see it, is that if you haven't sold, there is really nothing to get worked up about. Same as I don't get why playing the stick fantasy game is entertaining. It's the way I am, I don't get the point.
Posted on 6/30/15 at 9:34 pm to TheHiddenFlask
I'm curious to those who are in the buy individual stocks camp vs just buying equity index funds. Are you doing this with your entire retirement portfolio? Is all your money in the market at the same time? What's the max percentage of your portfolio that you would put towards 1 stock?
Also, I wonder how big your portfolios are. Once your portfolio is well into 6 or 7 figures; I just can't imagine buying individual stocks at those amounts. I wouldn't be able to sleep at night.
Also, I wonder how big your portfolios are. Once your portfolio is well into 6 or 7 figures; I just can't imagine buying individual stocks at those amounts. I wouldn't be able to sleep at night.
Posted on 6/30/15 at 11:01 pm to TheHiddenFlask
It certainly has been a rough few days. I probably shaved off a few %, but nothing to freak out about.
I'm curious as to why you felt we found a floor on oil prices, especially with the Iranian deal time-frame coming to an end? The "smart money" is on a deal that allows Iran to re-enter the oil market which would increase the global supply. That situation (in my ignorant position) seems to trump any possible short term domestic findings.
I'm curious your thoughts, as I would like to better understand the energy market.
I'm curious as to why you felt we found a floor on oil prices, especially with the Iranian deal time-frame coming to an end? The "smart money" is on a deal that allows Iran to re-enter the oil market which would increase the global supply. That situation (in my ignorant position) seems to trump any possible short term domestic findings.
I'm curious your thoughts, as I would like to better understand the energy market.
Posted on 7/1/15 at 8:56 am to TheHiddenFlask
I'm only down 2% this month, and feeling good about it.
Posted on 7/1/15 at 9:02 am to TheHiddenFlask
Holding 1050 shares of EXXI with a cost basis of $4.51 share. Went back in late last week around $3.20 with my impeccable timing. 
Cannot decide if I want to make another purchase down here or just let it ride.
Not really freaking out, but damn it hurts. Especially when I could move some of that into other stocks that are beaten up, WMT, XOM, etc.
Cannot decide if I want to make another purchase down here or just let it ride. Not really freaking out, but damn it hurts. Especially when I could move some of that into other stocks that are beaten up, WMT, XOM, etc.
Posted on 7/1/15 at 9:15 am to TheHiddenFlask
Anytime I start thinking about getting cute, I come on this board and read about people who know far more than I do getting their asses handed to them. Then I just keep plugging away at my nice, big index funds 
Posted on 7/1/15 at 9:30 am to OnTheBrink
quote:
WMT, XOM, etc.
I've got about 5k that I want to use for a short term play, was thinking about WMT. Surely, it's not going to fall much more
ETA: I didn't even realize XOM was down. Might be better.
This post was edited on 7/1/15 at 9:32 am
Posted on 7/1/15 at 9:36 am to Joshjrn
flask is just ignoring the advice of old walt morales and sticking to index funds
Posted on 7/1/15 at 12:40 pm to BilJ
quote:It's appropriate for Morales to give that advice if you keep in mind that many of his students don't have an interest in the stock market, and it can keep some naïve students from making stupid trades because they lack sufficient knowledge to maintain long-term success. It didn't stop me, and I lost a couple grand as a result, but I also learned from it. That lesson has paid off quite well.
flask is just ignoring the advice of old walt morales and sticking to index funds
Trading individual securities can pay off handsomely if you know what you are doing, but you are going to take losses at times. This thread is HiddenFlask proving that. Personally, I'm up ~35% so far in a market that has been flat since the year started. I was up A LOT more until I took a few hits. But if you don't know what you're doing, you will lose money in the long run, and that's why Morales gives the general advice of index funds.
Posted on 7/1/15 at 1:12 pm to Omada
my response wasn't serious
Posted on 7/1/15 at 1:16 pm to BilJ
Ah, my bad. Apologies. 
Posted on 7/1/15 at 2:29 pm to TheHiddenFlask
Same here
I bought Oil and gas in (CHK) and Gold ETF (NUGT)
Terrible move I'm down about 10G on both stocks
The bad thing is Oil will go much much lower IMO
I bought Oil and gas in (CHK) and Gold ETF (NUGT)
Terrible move I'm down about 10G on both stocks
The bad thing is Oil will go much much lower IMO
Posted on 7/1/15 at 3:32 pm to gpburdell
quote:
I'm curious to those who are in the buy individual stocks camp vs just buying equity index funds. Are you doing this with your entire retirement portfolio? Is all your money in the market at the same time? What's the max percentage of your portfolio that you would put towards 1 stock?
Also, I wonder how big your portfolios are. Once your portfolio is well into 6 or 7 figures; I just can't imagine buying individual stocks at those amounts. I wouldn't be able to sleep at night.
I can't speak for everyone else but my portfolio runs the gauntlet. I have ETFs, MFs, commodities, futures, individual stocks, bonds, CDs, etc.
Posted on 7/1/15 at 11:40 pm to Iowa Golfer
quote:
Personally I'm not down or up until I sell. The inbetween stuff is just filler, and I've tried my best to not get really emotional about it either direction.
If many people were a bit more patient they would have many fewer losses realized. Not directed at the OP in any way.
Posted on 7/2/15 at 8:49 am to TheHiddenFlask
I'm one of those who called BS on your reported returns.
I didn't know when I did that you weren't really investing as I define it, but sort of speculating/trading on high risk/return stocks.
You have my sympathy and heart felt regrets
I'm taking on the chin a bit right now as well having bought a coal stock (AHGP) and industrial rental (URI) recently, so I'd appreciate some sympathy as well
I think both will come back in next few months though as they are fundamentally very sound.
I can't complain too much though as I'm still kicking arse vs S&P YTD, 1 yr, 5 yr and 10 yrs....
I didn't know when I did that you weren't really investing as I define it, but sort of speculating/trading on high risk/return stocks.
You have my sympathy and heart felt regrets
I'm taking on the chin a bit right now as well having bought a coal stock (AHGP) and industrial rental (URI) recently, so I'd appreciate some sympathy as well
I think both will come back in next few months though as they are fundamentally very sound.
I can't complain too much though as I'm still kicking arse vs S&P YTD, 1 yr, 5 yr and 10 yrs....
Posted on 7/2/15 at 4:19 pm to Ole War Skule
I have my 401k invested in index funds. That should be enough to let me retire very comfortably.
When I quote returns, I am talking about what I call my "trading account". I scraped together a little cash when I was in undergrad and started trading. I caught the bull market run from 2009 until now and have always had a bunch of riskier trades in it. A significant portion of my success was due to the market nearly tripling since I opened the account, but I have made several really great trades that got my returns to where they are today.
I would never be so risky with my money if it was something that I was needing for retirement.
When I quote returns, I am talking about what I call my "trading account". I scraped together a little cash when I was in undergrad and started trading. I caught the bull market run from 2009 until now and have always had a bunch of riskier trades in it. A significant portion of my success was due to the market nearly tripling since I opened the account, but I have made several really great trades that got my returns to where they are today.
I would never be so risky with my money if it was something that I was needing for retirement.
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