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re: AUPH - Aurinia Pharmaceuticals [CEO FIRED!]

Posted on 10/27/21 at 12:46 pm to
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
24534 posts
Posted on 10/27/21 at 12:46 pm to


Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
24534 posts
Posted on 10/27/21 at 3:02 pm to
quote:

If this is still pinned at $30 following no news tomorrow morning than we know it’s happening, we just don’t know when.
Well….
Posted by castorinho
13623 posts
Member since Nov 2010
87435 posts
Posted on 10/27/21 at 3:10 pm to
I'm pretty shocked tbh. I was expecting a trip back to the low 20s
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
24534 posts
Posted on 10/27/21 at 3:20 pm to
Perhaps BMY needs AUPH more than we need them…
Future looks grim unless they get a new revenue stream. Stock is a dog!
Posted by CorkRockingham
Member since Jun 2017
502 posts
Posted on 10/27/21 at 3:36 pm to
So should I double my shares again?
Posted by jamiegla1
Member since Aug 2016
7938 posts
Posted on 10/27/21 at 4:05 pm to
I’m late to this game and emotionally bought this thing at 30. Should I sell it tomorrow and pretend it didn’t happen?
Posted by jimjackandjose
Member since Jun 2011
6746 posts
Posted on 10/27/21 at 4:08 pm to
I cut my position in half earlier. Took small loss.
Will ride the rest a little longer unless SLI makes a big dip in next few days
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
24534 posts
Posted on 10/27/21 at 4:48 pm to
quote:

I’m late to this game and emotionally bought this thing at 30. Should I sell it tomorrow and pretend it didn’t happen?
If you were in it for the potential buyout that might have happened yesterday or this morning then you might want to exit.

It’s a tough decision. I’m confident in 50% from here. Just don’t know when.

If you look back early in the thread. I was confident we’d see $30 too. I just thought it would come 18 months ago…
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
24534 posts
Posted on 10/27/21 at 4:59 pm to
quote:

So should I double my shares again?
I wouldn’t do anything you’re not comfortable with.

Do you like your average?
Do you like what $45 gets you based on current position?
Posted by oklahogjr
Gold Membership
Member since Jan 2010
40237 posts
Posted on 10/27/21 at 5:01 pm to
This thing is worth $20 until buyout is announced at least that's been my motto. I don't know that it's based in any sort of rationality anymore. I haven't updated any sort of model of mine since approval though so take they with a grain of salt
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
24534 posts
Posted on 10/27/21 at 5:11 pm to
quote:

This thing is worth $20 until buyout is announced at least that's been my motto.


I absolutely agree. This has been my stance since August.

However, three things raise fair value in my mind:
1) A2 three year efficacy and safety data
2) Q3 earnings beat (shows better than expected sales ramp).
3) Benlysta lack of efficacy

Well, Benlysta officially sucks after recent data demonstrated that.
A2 data is due any week now
and
I’m expecting at least a 20% revenue beat.

Most of this will be known on next Wednesday. New fair value of $25-30 without buyout rumors.
Posted by oklahogjr
Gold Membership
Member since Jan 2010
40237 posts
Posted on 10/27/21 at 5:42 pm to
quote:

However, three things raise fair value in my mind:
1) A2 three year efficacy and safety data
2) Q3 earnings beat (shows better than expected sales ramp).
3) Benlysta lack of efficacy

I'd agree with these. The only thing I'm worried about at this point is how high we think the ramp goes. With the 2037 date you gotta think it's higher than the 3b estimated peak sales.
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
24534 posts
Posted on 10/27/21 at 8:50 pm to
Look at this shite!
Found on ST.
IMMU chart last fall:
Posted by jimjackandjose
Member since Jun 2011
6746 posts
Posted on 10/27/21 at 9:18 pm to
Love the zone of frickery
Posted by jmcwhrter
Member since Nov 2012
7959 posts
Posted on 10/28/21 at 7:54 am to
quote:

Love the zone of frickery


where "traders" lose all their shares to Blackrock and Vangard
This post was edited on 10/28/21 at 7:54 am
Posted by jimjackandjose
Member since Jun 2011
6746 posts
Posted on 10/28/21 at 8:01 am to
Pretty much. Just hold
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
24534 posts
Posted on 10/28/21 at 8:12 am to
Yeah guys. It's sit back and relax time.

Well, earnings should be exciting next week. I hope they precipitate things.
Posted by jmcwhrter
Member since Nov 2012
7959 posts
Posted on 10/28/21 at 8:29 am to
Oppenheimer "downgrades" from Outperform to Perform, while raising the target to $32
Posted by CorkRockingham
Member since Jun 2017
502 posts
Posted on 10/28/21 at 8:45 am to
I’m wondering how AUPH earnings call will go on Wednesday. I might wait until then but if she stays pinned around $30 through next week and earnings calls is positive.

I’m almost feel convicted to back the truck up because I don’t see how you don’t profit.
Posted by Turftoe
Denver
Member since Mar 2016
4389 posts
Posted on 10/28/21 at 9:13 am to
Someone is buying!
This post was edited on 10/28/21 at 9:14 am
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