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Started By
Message
Anyone else sitting in cash waiting for the drop?
Posted on 8/3/22 at 6:11 am
Posted on 8/3/22 at 6:11 am
I’m cash heavy in a smaller account that I use to trade speculatively. But, haven’t moved anything around in my 401K allocation.
Don’t want to risk timing the market wrong or not participating in the upside in an inflationary period.
Don’t want to risk timing the market wrong or not participating in the upside in an inflationary period.
21
Posted on 8/3/22 at 6:46 am to Kreg Jennings
No. Timing the market is a fool's errand.
If it's a good buy, it's a good buy. If the price drops in the short term, buy more.
If it's a good buy, it's a good buy. If the price drops in the short term, buy more.
Posted on 8/3/22 at 6:57 am to Kreg Jennings
I'm a glorified construction worker. I'm barely smart enough to walk and talk at the same time. No way I'm smart enough to time the market. DCA is the way for me.
Posted on 8/3/22 at 6:59 am to Kreg Jennings
Sure, they show up every time there is a down trend to tell us how they got out just in time. This place would make Peter Lynch jealous, but unfortunately they’re only good at telling us after the fact. 
Posted on 8/3/22 at 7:01 am to Kreg Jennings
Me. I am 65% cash right now. Sold almost all my rental portfolio. (have a duplex airbnb and 3 SFH left).
Sold all my stocks when they started raising rates.
Only huge bath I have taken this year was in Bitcoin as I was certain it would switch to an inflation hedge this year. Down multiple six figures....
I believe there will be a great time to get back into real estate in the next 2 years and I want to be ready.
The stock market who fricking knows.
Those of you that were not around in 2008, let me tell you the biggest regret everyone had was not having cash. There were opportunities like you can't imagine.
Of course, my conviction is we have a large correction. If I am wrong, I will have missed out.
If I am right...
Sold all my stocks when they started raising rates.
Only huge bath I have taken this year was in Bitcoin as I was certain it would switch to an inflation hedge this year. Down multiple six figures....
I believe there will be a great time to get back into real estate in the next 2 years and I want to be ready.
The stock market who fricking knows.
Those of you that were not around in 2008, let me tell you the biggest regret everyone had was not having cash. There were opportunities like you can't imagine.
Of course, my conviction is we have a large correction. If I am wrong, I will have missed out.
If I am right...
Posted on 8/3/22 at 7:06 am to Kreg Jennings
Hand raised. Been hoarding since March. Hate to benefit off others misfortunes but most people aren't prepared for what is coming our way. I already max 401k/Roth/HSA which is enough so I am looking towards veblen goods which are already starting to move downwards and will eventually crash instead of stocks.
This post was edited on 8/3/22 at 7:08 am
Posted on 8/3/22 at 7:10 am to ronricks
quote:
but most people aren't prepared for what is coming our way
Agreed. I actually don't even think the USA is the one that breaks first but the shite will slap us in the face.
With what is going on in Europe and China, things are going to get messy.
Posted on 8/3/22 at 7:12 am to Kreg Jennings
I solely trade options outside of my IRA. About 60% cash right now. Yes I am waiting to pounce on certain stocks. Waiting for a larger sell off.
Posted on 8/3/22 at 7:30 am to Kreg Jennings
If you want to play the “timing game” without going “all in” on it I would recommend doing something like keeping half your account in cash and half in equities and rebalance every 30 days or so. Deploy cash when the market drops, sell when there is an upswing.
This post was edited on 8/3/22 at 7:32 am
Posted on 8/3/22 at 7:39 am to Kreg Jennings
quote:
Waiting for the drop
We already had a nice size drop a few months ago did you buy anything ? up like 10% since then so now you waiting again for "The Drop". If your not at least adding on major drops your going to be majorly disappointed waiting especially if fuel cost continue to drop, employment numbers stay strong and earnings continue to hold up well. I expect another drop in Sept so keeping 20% cash to add but if your just sitting there you have already missed an opportunity.
This post was edited on 8/3/22 at 7:45 am
Posted on 8/3/22 at 9:10 am to Kreg Jennings
(no message)
This post was edited on 2/20/24 at 11:20 pm
Posted on 8/3/22 at 10:33 am to Kreg Jennings
I've been keeping my investment cash installments liquid for a few months now. It's impossible to time the bottom perfectly but I don't think we're close to it yet.
Vehicle repossessions and home foreclosures are both up pretty strikingly. With ongoing inflation (looking at PPI we can expect at least another month or two of CPI being at or above 9%) and rate hikes, there's absolutely no reason to think we're anywhere close to the bottom right now.
What I'm looking for is for at least 2 consecutive months of PPI dropping. From there I'll be looking at CPI, unemployment, fuel prices, energy prices, etc. If they're all beginning to move positively, that's when I'll start buying again (I don't care if I miss the absolute bottom, I just don't want to miss the upswing).
Vehicle repossessions and home foreclosures are both up pretty strikingly. With ongoing inflation (looking at PPI we can expect at least another month or two of CPI being at or above 9%) and rate hikes, there's absolutely no reason to think we're anywhere close to the bottom right now.
What I'm looking for is for at least 2 consecutive months of PPI dropping. From there I'll be looking at CPI, unemployment, fuel prices, energy prices, etc. If they're all beginning to move positively, that's when I'll start buying again (I don't care if I miss the absolute bottom, I just don't want to miss the upswing).
This post was edited on 8/3/22 at 10:35 am
Posted on 8/3/22 at 11:06 am to Kreg Jennings
Been sitting in mostly cash for a while now. We have yet to see capitulation in this market. I’m looking for a VIX over 50 and I haven’t seen it yet. There’s no way the Fed gets us to a soft landing.
Posted on 8/3/22 at 11:32 am to I Love Bama
quote:
Those of you that were not around in 2008, let me tell you the biggest regret everyone had was not having cash. There were opportunities like you can't imagine.
Yeah, I went to cash for the 2000 tech bubble, thanks to Bob Brinker's advice. And I went to cash for the 2008 crash; Brinker did not give a sell signal for that one but there were too many alarm bells going off and I bailed (and stopped paying any attention to Brinker). This board was pretty awesome during the 2008 crash (wherever Jersey Tiger is I owe him big for one of his calls then). I went to cash this February and expect this year to be interesting. A lot of young investors don't have any experience with this sort of thing but I can remember my father going through a tough market at the end of 1972 and maybe it taught me to be a bit more cynical about being fully in the market for life.
Posted on 8/3/22 at 11:44 am to Aubie Spr96
quote:
Been sitting in mostly cash for a while now. We have yet to see capitulation in this market. I’m looking for a VIX over 50 and I haven’t seen it yet. There’s no way the Fed gets us to a soft landing.
The thing we are all forgetting is: The Dems will do everything possible to not lose the midterms.
This means they will stimulate the economy even if it dooms the country to record longterm inflation.
They care nothing for the people of this country. all they care about is power,
The market will do well until november.
Posted on 8/3/22 at 2:59 pm to Guntoter1
quote:
This means they will stimulate the economy even if it dooms the country to record longterm inflation.
Considering the make up of Congress and the fact that they can only affect fiscal policy at best, not monetary, please explain how your belief plays out. Just curious. Thanks.
Posted on 8/3/22 at 3:12 pm to frogtown
quote:
I solely trade options outside of my IRA. About 60% cash right now. Yes I am waiting to pounce on certain stocks. Waiting for a larger sell off.
Similar strategy with my accounts. The stocks that wind up in my options trading account I consider “inventory” that eventually needs to be sold off. In my tax advantaged accounts I keep a smallish amount of cash that I also use for cash secured puts and spread trading. And I then use the excess cash from that trading to buy stocks that I consider attractively priced for the long term.
I don’t watch my core equity positions like a tea pot on the stove (unless there’s some sort of fundamental breakdown). People do what they do. But what continues to amaze me about many (most) people is they don’t know if they’re investing or trading. They say they’re doing one, but when something unexpected happens, they act like they’re doing the other. Just an observation that plays out all the time. Oh well…
Posted on 8/3/22 at 3:19 pm to Guntoter1
My trading account is now 40% cash. I was 50+% cash after many stop loss orders filled on big oil (XOM, BP and SHEL) and a few stop loss orders filled on midstream (ET, EPD and SHLX). The big run up in energy had to back off some. I just don't believe crude is going to stay at $90 to $100+ per barrel for a long time and I had to protect my profit.
I used a little of that money to pick up some tech after the recent sell off (SPYG, INTC, and MU). As of today, I think I should probably have bought a little more but, I am being cautious because I am afraid that we haven't hit the bottom.
I used a little of that money to pick up some tech after the recent sell off (SPYG, INTC, and MU). As of today, I think I should probably have bought a little more but, I am being cautious because I am afraid that we haven't hit the bottom.
Posted on 8/3/22 at 3:25 pm to Jag_Warrior
quote:
Considering the make up of Congress and the fact that they can only affect fiscal policy at best, not monetary, please explain how your belief plays out. Just curious. Thanks.
They could well be desperate enough to push another round of stimmy checks "to help the poor get through these tough economic times" (or somesuch) in order to buy votes in November. Another trillion would send inflation into the stratosphere.
Or... they could see the increasing jobless claims (have been going up consistently since mid-March) and push for more welfare benefits "because inflation has made being poor much more difficult" (or some other drivel) in order to buy votes in November. Paying people to sit out of the labor market even more will artificially drive wages (and thus, eventually, prices) upward.
Or... they could make another attempt at increasing the national Minimum Wage in time for November, "because of inflation".
There's lots of economic and/or fiscal mischief they can pull. Biden would likely sign these things if they make it to him (the key is getting by Manchin and maybe Sinema in the Senate).
This post was edited on 8/3/22 at 3:27 pm
Posted on 8/3/22 at 3:27 pm to Jag_Warrior
quote:
Considering the make up of Congress and the fact that they can only affect fiscal policy at best, not monetary, please explain how your belief plays out. Just curious. Thanks.
1. Well, so far EVERYONE has agreed that the fed, (controlled by the party in power) has not been aggressive enough raising interest rates and has signaled that he may back off even more. (reason for current rally).
2. They are still trying to pass a student loan forgiveness bill. which is stimulus.
3. Mark my words "more is on the way" now that the primaries are over the big push will be coming any day now for economic help from the Biden administration.
4. The current tax bill being debated in the news gives 80 BILLION to the IRS.
This post was edited on 8/3/22 at 4:09 pm
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