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re: Anyone else sitting in cash waiting for the drop?
Posted on 8/3/22 at 3:55 pm to Guntoter1
Posted on 8/3/22 at 3:55 pm to Guntoter1
Powell (a Republican) was nominated to Fed chair by Trump. And more recently, even the once dovish voting Fed members have become more hawkish (in relative terms). In my view, Powell and the Fed has remained fairly independent of influences by either party - which I’m very glad of. Although I’m not and have never been a fan of the Federal Reserve system (or central banks in general), I prefer their strategies and policies over those of any power hungry political party.
BTW, whenever you use the term “everyone”, I can almost guarantee that you’re missing some folks. There are always contrarians.
As for your other points, could be. We’ll see. But as I said in another post, I don’t now, and have never changed my core investment philosophy based on politics - and let’s just say that it’s worked pretty well for a few decades. As for my trading (primarily options), bullish or bearish, I simply ride the probability waves and try to be as mechanical as possible. I don’t get emotional about the numbers on my screens or fall into confirmation bias.
Best of luck to you on whichever road you choose though.
BTW, whenever you use the term “everyone”, I can almost guarantee that you’re missing some folks. There are always contrarians.
As for your other points, could be. We’ll see. But as I said in another post, I don’t now, and have never changed my core investment philosophy based on politics - and let’s just say that it’s worked pretty well for a few decades. As for my trading (primarily options), bullish or bearish, I simply ride the probability waves and try to be as mechanical as possible. I don’t get emotional about the numbers on my screens or fall into confirmation bias.
Best of luck to you on whichever road you choose though.
1
Posted on 8/3/22 at 4:01 pm to Guntoter1
It's about time i start setting up some stops on some of the stocks i bought in early july 2022. Some of them up big 
Lock in those profits before the upcoming reset.
Lock in those profits before the upcoming reset.
This post was edited on 8/4/22 at 3:05 am
Posted on 8/3/22 at 4:03 pm to Bard
quote:
They could
Operative word being “could”. As I’ve mentioned, my trading strategies (and also what I’ve done for a living for years) has been largely based on probabilities. And as you mentioned the need for cooperation from Sinema and Manchin, I’d rate those as pretty well OTM trades.
Posted on 8/3/22 at 4:25 pm to Jag_Warrior
quote:
owell (a Republican) was nominated to Fed chair by Trump.
Yes and i believe, unlike you, that they are influenced by the party in power, whoever that may be. And to some extent i think they should do the bidding of the party that was elected by the people, within reason of course.
quote:
I simply ride the probability waves and try to be as mechanical as possible. I don’t get emotional about the numbers on my screens or fall into confirmation bias.
Why do you assume i am emotional?
You asked me how my opinion would "play out".
I have told you.
But you are kidding yourself if you think your world view and beliefs (emotions) about the future dont influence your investing decisions.
Posted on 8/3/22 at 4:34 pm to Jag_Warrior
quote:
Considering the make up of Congress and the fact that they can only affect fiscal policy at best, not monetary, please explain how your belief plays out. Just curious. Thanks.
Inflation Reduction Act...
$369B for climate change
$300B for green new deal loans
$80B for IRS
$60B for environmental justice
$9B for electric cars
$2.6B for coastal conservation
$1.5B for trees
Posted on 8/3/22 at 5:00 pm to Kreg Jennings
I was around 25% cash in Q1 but am now down to 10%
Posted on 8/3/22 at 5:10 pm to Kreg Jennings
If you’re an investor vs trader, I’m not sure it matters what level we are at this point
I’d rather see us roll sideways for a bit
I’d rather see us roll sideways for a bit
Posted on 8/3/22 at 8:26 pm to Jag_Warrior
quote:
Considering the make up of Congress and the fact that they can only affect fiscal policy at best, not monetary, please explain how your belief plays out. Just curious. Thanks.
Please explain why you feel the fed is apolitical.
Posted on 8/3/22 at 10:31 pm to Kreg Jennings
Heavy cash, upped my 401k but still haven't but any cash in I pulled out 6 months ago besidessome Ibonds. I'm about 50% cash.
Posted on 8/4/22 at 6:48 am to Kreg Jennings
Yep, but I’m old. Different rules apply
Posted on 8/4/22 at 7:20 am to Kreg Jennings
Just dumped my catch up funds in for the year.
Posted on 8/4/22 at 7:32 am to Kreg Jennings
I am 50/50 bc I changed jobs didn't seem right to drop it all back in
Jury is out how I am doing with timing - getting close to 0% return lol
Jury is out how I am doing with timing - getting close to 0% return lol
Posted on 8/4/22 at 10:05 am to Kreg Jennings
Read this book and educate yourself.
Cliffs- Even if you know the top and the bottom, you will still be better off continually buying vs waiting for the perfect time to enter the market.
Posted on 8/4/22 at 10:46 am to Guntoter1
quote:
Why do you assume i am emotional?
But you are kidding yourself if you think your world view and beliefs (emotions) about the future dont influence your investing decisions.
I have no idea why you thought that I was referencing you or your emotions. I know nothing about you. I don’t know if you’re trading, investing, doing a mix of both or aren’t sure. No assumptions have been made.
This is what I actually posted:
quote:
As for my trading (primarily options), bullish or bearish, I simply ride the probability waves and try to be as mechanical as possible. I don’t get emotional about the numbers on my screens or fall into confirmation bias.
I was referencing my options trading system. And no, it is absolutely NOT based on emotions, politics or my world view. As I said, other than me having to execute options trades manually at present (and I’m even getting away from that with a bot system), it is a mechanical system largely based on IV, IV rank and deltas - there’s much more to it than that, but that’s the simple explanation. So between entering trades and closing trades, I do 30-40 a week. It’s how I’ve made a good portion of my income for years. So no, my trading is not based at all on anything but following that system, which is purely data driven.
Hope that clears it up. And as I said before, be well in whatever strategy that you choose for your trading or investing.
Posted on 8/4/22 at 10:56 am to GrizzlyAlloy
quote:
Please explain why you feel the fed is apolitical.
Words matter. Did I say that they were apolitical or did I say that the Fed has remained fairly independent of influences by either party?
And to reference another of your points, I wholly disagree that the Fed should change monetary policy based on the whims of whichever party is in power. I’d rather give a $100 bill to a 5 year old and depend on him to effectively do my grocery shopping. The Fed sometimes struggles with being data driven. Congress, no matter which party is in control, has been failing at fiscal policy for the entirety of my life. Lord help us all if those campaign donation chasing morons were ever given the switch to monetary policy!
Posted on 8/4/22 at 7:54 pm to Jag_Warrior
I'll give you one example and let you rethink your last post.
quote:
Janet Louise Yellen (born August 13, 1946) is an American economist serving as the 78th United States secretary of the treasury since January 26, 2021. A member of the Democratic Party, she previously served as the 15th chair of the Federal Reserve from 2014 to 2018. Yellen is the first woman to hold each of those posts and the first person to have led the White House Council of Economic Advisers, the Federal Reserve, and the Treasury Department.[1][2]
Posted on 8/4/22 at 9:47 pm to Kreg Jennings
Over the last 3 weeks I went from 100% cash down to 25% now
Posted on 8/5/22 at 5:25 pm to Guntoter1
50% cash right now. I will start buying when Dow hits 28k.
Posted on 8/5/22 at 10:34 pm to Kreg Jennings
I’m of the Burton Malkiel Random Walk school of investing. Been buying VOO steady on the red days. 0% loss over the past year by way of DCA. When the market turns I’m confident that my efforts will be rewarded.
Posted on 8/6/22 at 6:38 am to Kreg Jennings
I’m selling cash secured puts.
Looking at INTC.
I know it is loathed widely.
Sometimes that can be a good time to buy.
MO is paying a big dividend. It is not loved either.
I’ve been buying some SCHD.
None of this is exciting.
All of it could be wrong.
Looking at INTC.
I know it is loathed widely.
Sometimes that can be a good time to buy.
MO is paying a big dividend. It is not loved either.
I’ve been buying some SCHD.
None of this is exciting.
All of it could be wrong.
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