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Started By
Message
30-year Treasury yield tops 5.33%, new 19-year high on inflation, spending concerns
Posted on 8/18/26 at 8:46 am
Posted on 8/18/26 at 8:46 am
Posted on 8/18/26 at 9:11 am to lynxcat
quote:
Spending, debt, and inflation starting to really show up.
Nowhere to hide. Seems too early to lock in on bonds.
Posted on 8/18/26 at 9:57 am to Dozen_Charred1026
What are the reasons behind japans economic situation? Seems like a race as disciplined and hard working as them wouldn't have problems.
Posted on 8/18/26 at 10:04 am to lynxcat
Massive tech borrowing has large ripple effects. Their borrowing rates have gone up significantly. This can't continue at the current rate
Posted on 8/18/26 at 10:04 am to Civildawg
They print and buy their own bonds. Yen devalues, they come to papa to print over the default. Dollar holders lose purchasing power.
Posted on 8/18/26 at 11:24 am to Civildawg
quote:
What are the reasons behind japans economic situation? Seems like a race as disciplined and hard working as them wouldn't have problems.
LINK
Read that^ book. The cliffnotes are the BOJ issued what was known as "window guidance" for decades after WW2. It was secret but it was responsible for their outstanding real economy growth rates. The BOJ basically issued quotas on bank lending towards industry they wanted to experience growth. It all went towards productive growth, real economy shite like cars, consumer electronics, appliances etc... until the '80s when they changed course and began to pressure banks to lend to speculative investments, primarily R/E and equities.
This fueled two of the biggest bubbles in history, both of which grenaded in spectacular fashion between '89 and '92. The BOJ then, paraphrasing Dr. Lacy Hunt here, tried one intervention after another which prolonged economic suffering for 30 years. If they had done nothing they would have fully recovered decades sooner.
Now their debt/gdp is over 250%, the BOJ owns over 50% of all JGBs, their demographics are fricked, and they import all their energy which, since Ukraine/Iran has them bent over a barrel. The yen is collapsing and their bond market is blowing up. Bessent is diligently applying duct tape and super glue to the seams but it will eventually bust and impact the dollar and treasuries since global sovereign debt markets are an interconnected and tangled Gordian Knot.
Posted on 8/19/26 at 7:06 am to lynxcat
20 years were above 5 as well. Tempted to move some of my fixed income investments into these.
Posted on 8/19/26 at 7:14 am to lynxcat
quote:
inflation starting to really show up.
quote:
On the inflation side, recent readings have shown low levels of overall price increases in June and July, but the annual rate remains well above the Fed’s 2% target.
This article is just massive fear porn
Posted on 8/19/26 at 8:48 am to lynxcat
Treasury buy back plan is lowering yeilds this morning.
And bonus link: Cramer says buy the market
Uh... now I don't know what to do
And bonus link: Cramer says buy the market
Uh... now I don't know what to do
Posted on 8/19/26 at 10:14 am to BestBanker
quote:
Treasury buy back plan is lowering yeilds this morning.
Band-aid on a gunshot wound. Also...
lol
Posted on 8/19/26 at 3:09 pm to BestBanker
quote:
Treasury buy back plan is lowering yeilds this morning.
And bonus link: Cramer says buy the market
Uh... now I don't know what to do
The 20yr tail was a soft .5, but the 20yr is down ~.1 today, so it's debatable on how much Bessent's gamble paid off. I guess in this environment it's a win?
Posted on 8/20/26 at 11:18 am to lynxcat
We are going to “grow our way out of it.” Biden left a mess.
So ssys Bessent
30 Trillion since 2008.
Inflating our way into NKCY.
Too big too fail is 10-50xs larger with trillions in derivative bets
So ssys Bessent
30 Trillion since 2008.
Inflating our way into NKCY.
Too big too fail is 10-50xs larger with trillions in derivative bets
This post was edited on 8/20/26 at 11:21 am
Posted on 8/20/26 at 1:31 pm to PUB
Yields were back above pre intervention announcement this morning, lol. Scotty said ok, maybe it'll be bigger than 40B.

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