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30-year Treasury yield tops 5.33%, new 19-year high on inflation, spending concerns

Posted on 8/18/26 at 8:46 am
Posted by lynxcat
Member since Jan 2008
25383 posts
Posted on 8/18/26 at 8:46 am
LINK

Spending, debt, and inflation starting to really show up.
Posted by ynlvr
Rocket City
Member since Feb 2009
5689 posts
Posted on 8/18/26 at 9:11 am to
quote:

Spending, debt, and inflation starting to really show up.

Nowhere to hide. Seems too early to lock in on bonds.
Posted by Dozen_Charred1026
Member since Jun 2026
9 posts
Posted on 8/18/26 at 9:14 am to
Japan is about to crack
Posted by Civildawg
Member since May 2012
10665 posts
Posted on 8/18/26 at 9:57 am to
What are the reasons behind japans economic situation? Seems like a race as disciplined and hard working as them wouldn't have problems.
Posted by UltimaParadox
North Carolina
Member since Nov 2008
53849 posts
Posted on 8/18/26 at 10:04 am to
Massive tech borrowing has large ripple effects. Their borrowing rates have gone up significantly. This can't continue at the current rate
Posted by XanderCrews
Member since Mar 2009
818 posts
Posted on 8/18/26 at 10:04 am to
They print and buy their own bonds. Yen devalues, they come to papa to print over the default. Dollar holders lose purchasing power.
Posted by Art Blakey
Member since Aug 2023
348 posts
Posted on 8/18/26 at 11:24 am to
quote:

What are the reasons behind japans economic situation? Seems like a race as disciplined and hard working as them wouldn't have problems.


LINK

Read that^ book. The cliffnotes are the BOJ issued what was known as "window guidance" for decades after WW2. It was secret but it was responsible for their outstanding real economy growth rates. The BOJ basically issued quotas on bank lending towards industry they wanted to experience growth. It all went towards productive growth, real economy shite like cars, consumer electronics, appliances etc... until the '80s when they changed course and began to pressure banks to lend to speculative investments, primarily R/E and equities.

This fueled two of the biggest bubbles in history, both of which grenaded in spectacular fashion between '89 and '92. The BOJ then, paraphrasing Dr. Lacy Hunt here, tried one intervention after another which prolonged economic suffering for 30 years. If they had done nothing they would have fully recovered decades sooner.

Now their debt/gdp is over 250%, the BOJ owns over 50% of all JGBs, their demographics are fricked, and they import all their energy which, since Ukraine/Iran has them bent over a barrel. The yen is collapsing and their bond market is blowing up. Bessent is diligently applying duct tape and super glue to the seams but it will eventually bust and impact the dollar and treasuries since global sovereign debt markets are an interconnected and tangled Gordian Knot.
Posted by T1gerNate
Member since Feb 2020
4648 posts
Posted on 8/18/26 at 10:29 pm to
Appreciate the post
Posted by Free888
Member since Oct 2019
3537 posts
Posted on 8/19/26 at 7:06 am to
20 years were above 5 as well. Tempted to move some of my fixed income investments into these.
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
101105 posts
Posted on 8/19/26 at 7:14 am to
quote:

inflation starting to really show up.


quote:

On the inflation side, recent readings have shown low levels of overall price increases in June and July, but the annual rate remains well above the Fed’s 2% target.


This article is just massive fear porn
Posted by BestBanker
Member since Nov 2011
19876 posts
Posted on 8/19/26 at 8:48 am to
Treasury buy back plan is lowering yeilds this morning.

And bonus link: Cramer says buy the market
Uh... now I don't know what to do
Posted by Art Blakey
Member since Aug 2023
348 posts
Posted on 8/19/26 at 10:14 am to
quote:


Treasury buy back plan is lowering yeilds this morning.


Band-aid on a gunshot wound. Also...

lol
Posted by Bard
Definitely NOT an admin
Member since Oct 2008
60690 posts
Posted on 8/19/26 at 3:09 pm to
quote:

Treasury buy back plan is lowering yeilds this morning.

And bonus link: Cramer says buy the market
Uh... now I don't know what to do


The 20yr tail was a soft .5, but the 20yr is down ~.1 today, so it's debatable on how much Bessent's gamble paid off. I guess in this environment it's a win?
Posted by PUB
New Orleans
Member since Sep 2017
21657 posts
Posted on 8/20/26 at 11:18 am to
We are going to “grow our way out of it.” Biden left a mess.
So ssys Bessent

30 Trillion since 2008.

Inflating our way into NKCY.

Too big too fail is 10-50xs larger with trillions in derivative bets

This post was edited on 8/20/26 at 11:21 am
Posted by Art Blakey
Member since Aug 2023
348 posts
Posted on 8/20/26 at 1:31 pm to
Yields were back above pre intervention announcement this morning, lol. Scotty said ok, maybe it'll be bigger than 40B.
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