Why would a depth limited team like LSU start an ACE against a lower seeded team?

- We had arguably 1 dominant pitcher going into regional play last year. The depth was even shakier after State, Auburn and Hoover this time last year.

- Perfect scenario is Jump can give us 8 innings against Wofford. Jay has been pushing his pitch count every week. Holman does his normal outing

- If we go 2-0 then our Sunday guys would be going against whichever teams midweek guys

That's why you roll out Jump and Holman first two games

You play to go 2-0. If you go 2-0 the other teams bullpen will be more depleted than yours. The first 2 games matter most.

Other reasons that haven't been mentioned yet:
1. If you're fighting for your season in a winner take all game on Monday then whoever pitches Friday might come back in relief.

2. You want your top starters on schedule to start games 1 and 2 of the SR on full rest

Because LSU has been inconsistent all year.

Because 1 crooked inning can lose you the game.

The other side will pitch their best pitcher.

We do not have a 3rd starter who is dependable

We cannot afford to lose game 1. We have to stay in the winners bracket due to lack of consistent pitching.

There is a long list of reasons.

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Why would a depth limited team like LSU start an ACE against a lower seeded team?

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Because you aren't guaranteed 3 games.

Also, your pen only has to win one game. If you screw around and lose game 1 then your pen has to win 2 games.

We can’t act like we’re at home playing against a 4 seed. We’re away from home against a 3 seed that has a great offense which involves a lot of running (stolen bases). This scenario screams having a lefty ace like Jump on the mound to try to secure a 1-0 start.

First, "objectively inferior" is really your subjective opinion. Wofford and LSU haven't played this season. Yes, the level of competition Wofford has played is, on the whole, worse than that of LSU. But that doesn't mean in a one game setting Wofford is incapable of winning. LSU is a No.2 seed. 3 seeds winning game one of a regional is not an uncommon occurrence. All you have to do is look at the 2022 tournament where 3 seeds won 10 of the 16 2/3 matchups.

The obvious biggest issue is that you increase your risk of losing game one by starting your, at best, third best pitcher. In your scenario you start Ackenhausen and have Jump/Holman available if things get out of hand. If they do, now you've just wasted one of your starters and a top reliever to, at best, win game one and at worst, still lose. Which puts you in a situation where you have to play in the losers bracket to avoid the end of your season. Are you going to start another bullpen arm there because you still will have to beat (likely) UNC twice? If so, you increase your risk of losing once more and, worse, going 0-2 without having started a single game with your top to pitchers. I'm sure every manager would love to have to explain to his team and everyone else how their season is over, losing two games where you chose to no start your top 2 pitchers. Which means you are probably going to use your second starter.

In postseason play you don't take things for granted. You set yourself up in the best position to win game the game in front of you then prepare for the next one as it comes.

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UNC is the #4 national seed for a reason, they are REALLY good. I just can't see us beating them twice without both Jump and Holman pitching 6-7 quality innings per game. They also have the best home record in the country at 32-2, just to add more to their resume.

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First, this EXACT same statement was made ahead of the CWS last year. There was "no way" LSU could win if they didn't start 2-0 with Skenes/Floyd.

Second, if you start 2-0 in the regional, the next time you face UNC it would be their fourth game to LSU's third. Plus, weather permitting, it would be the second game of the DAY for UNC. That's advantage LSU from a pitching standpoint.

In the end though this is ALL academic. Jump has started every game one for over a month with his first game 1 start coming against Tennessee. Since that Tennessee series LSU has won every game Jump has started except for the Alabama game...which was the result of bullpen/fielding meltdown. Therefore, Johnson is not going to look at the situation and say "We've been playing well....let's change things up". Particularly considering he clearly was not confident LSU was even a NCAAT team just over a week ago (which is why he started Jump in the SECT on short rest).

Jump is starting on Friday.

Reason 1- How does using your day 3 pitching lineup on day 1 hurt your bullpen? You are still using the same arms, maybe less arms since you are banking on the ability of your bullpen to beat an objectively worse team in fewer pitches than would be needed to close out a team like UNC.

Reason 2- This is the big one, losing is bad. Having to play an extra game is terrible for a team like LSU. But that's why I mentioned prepare your ace to take over if it seems your bullpen is struggling. Don't get down 3 scores before putting in your ace. If your day 3 starter begins to struggle, pull him ASAP.

Reason 3- I actually get this one. But assuming we stay in the winners bracket, do you think our game 3 pitching is better than UNC's game 4 pitching? If things would work out using our day 3 pitching for game 1 we would be using our day 1 on game 2 against UNC, and our day 2 on game 3 vs UNC.

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Reason 1- you run a much higher risk of depleting your bullpen depth in game 1. You are worried about starting pitching depth, but the bullpen arms will be even more important. Reason 2- you are risking losing game 1.. Wofford has good hitting numbers. Lose game 1 then you are also risking having to play more games, and even a possibility exiting the tournament without one of your two aces pitching. Reason 3- if we can win with both Jump and Holman then we force UNC to have to play more games. Sure, we will be slightly depleted pitching in game 3 and 4, but UNC (or whoever) would have to beat us with pitching in their 4th and 5th games.

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Counter 1: It’s better to deplete the pen on Friday than on Sunday.

Counter 2: UNC is an even better hitting team that scored 11.2 R/G against “Sunday” pitching going 9-1 in conference in Game 3s and losing only 2 home games all year.

Counter 3: UNC’s pitching depth isn’t much better, but they are hard to outhit, especially at home. Again, 9-1 in Game 3s.

It’s undoubtedly a huge risk to throw Ack or Hurd against Wofford. UNC is just such a good hitting team that it’s an even bigger risk to expend an ace against anyone else. More than likely LSU needs to go 3-0 to win the regional. The question is whether Ack/Hurd give you a better chance against Wofford and their #1 or UNC and their #3 or #4. UNC’s record on Sundays and offensive production in those games makes me think the chances are better against Wofford even with their #1 pitcher. Unfortunately LSU has no clear path without taking risks.

The biggest reason we are seeded so high is Jump and Holiman. If you remove them from the equation, the team we play improves their chances of beating us. They have their one and we have Johnny Wholestaff.

We must win games 1 and 2 in order to use our Johnny Wholestaff agsinst our opponents 4th pitcher in our third game where we should have an advantage.