Why Nuss's lackluster completion% vs Ole Miss is misleading about his overall efficiency

Let me preface this by saying that I am NOT claiming that Nuss was outstanding or played anywhere near his best; he obviously missed plenty of throws and had some rough INT. What I AM claiming: Nuss's 43% completion rate paints his down-to-down, drive-to-drive performance in a much worse light than it should actually be painted. Or, in other words: Simply pointing to the 43% completion rate and saying "see, he was terrible!" is extremely misleading and lazy.


As a point of comparison, let's use Joe Burrow's 2019 performance against Auburn. Both were mid-season games, at home, against top-10 teams with elite defenses whose best unit was the DL. In that game, Burrow was 32/42 (76%!) for 321yds 1TD/1INT. Nuss, against Ole Miss, was 22/51 (43%) for 337yds 3TD/2INT. So burrow was much much better, right? Well...


The two things that completion% overlooks are 1) the length of the passes, and 2) other, worse results (sacks) that may have occurred on a pass play instead of a pass attempt.


The first needs no real explanation: Longer passes are both more valuable and harder to complete than short passes. As a general rule, you'd rather go 2/4 for 50yds than 4/4 for 25 yards; in the former case you're averaging 25yds per play, while in the latter case you're only averaging a shade over 6yds per play. As for the second: If your team ran 10 pass plays, would you rather have your QB go 6/8 for 75yds, or 6/10 for 70yds? The first guy has a higher comp%, more yards, more yards per completion, AND more yards per attempt - you'd rather have him, right? Well, not if the other 2 plays are sacks for a loss of 5yds each. Instead of taking 2 sacks and losing 10 yards, the other guy threw the ball away twice. His completion percentage went down, but overall he completed the same number of passes in the same number of plays, and his team is better off because he didn't lose yards on the plays where he didn't complete a pass.






Well, against Ole Miss, Nuss's average completion went for 15yds; Burrow's against Auburn only went 10 yards. And in the dropbacks when he wasn't actually completing a pass, Nuss was sacked 0 times (and scrambled once for 14yds). Burrow, on the other hand, was sacked three times for a total loss of 13.


When you add it all up, here's the result: Nuss produced 351yds (337+14) on 52 dropbacks, for a net average of 6.8yds per dropback. Burrow produced 308yds (321-13) on 45 dropbacks, for a net average of .... drumroll .... 6.8yds per dropback.






And THAT is why you should look beyond just completion percentage.