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Started By
Message
re: Why FL isn't moving. Per current track, effects to Gainesville are minimal
Posted on 10/6/16 at 12:34 pm to RobbBobb
Posted on 10/6/16 at 12:34 pm to RobbBobb
how wide is the storm?
we don't need an eye for major league wash out
this is a disaster of a situation
UF better offer a solution
if the game is cancelled...I will not forgive UF for this ...
because it could be avoided...
hate it for the players that work hard for these games
we don't need an eye for major league wash out
this is a disaster of a situation
UF better offer a solution
if the game is cancelled...I will not forgive UF for this ...
because it could be avoided...
hate it for the players that work hard for these games
2
Posted on 10/6/16 at 12:34 pm to RobbBobb
If Matthew takes the green dot path, UF will have chosen.....poorly.
Posted on 10/6/16 at 12:35 pm to RobbBobb
quote:
You are assuming that the eyewall will be on the coastline. As of now, it will not. So if the storm is 75 miles off the coast + the 75 miles Gainesville is from the coast = 150 miles from the eye.
And you are assuming that the model is the forecast. NHC will tell you it is not. This is why they use a cone. And the latest cone (10 am central time) still covers almost half the state of Florida.
Posted on 10/6/16 at 12:38 pm to rattlebucket
The storm's eye doesn't have to pass directly over Gainesville and it's not necessarily the storm itself we're worried about. It's the damage afterwards that's worrying everyone.
Posted on 10/6/16 at 12:39 pm to ApexTiger
quote:
I will not forgive UF for this ...
I'm sure this is very concerning for Florida
Posted on 10/6/16 at 12:40 pm to BeachDude022
I get that. Just making them look so bad if Matthew drops it in the bullseye on Gainesville. They shouldve moved the game yesterday.
Posted on 10/6/16 at 12:40 pm to ApexTiger
The storm has only a 10mile band of the strongest winds and those will remain offshore.
Posted on 10/6/16 at 12:43 pm to Mudminnow
quote:You realize the cone says it could be otherwise?
The storm has only a 10mile band of the strongest winds and those will remain offshore.
Posted on 10/6/16 at 12:44 pm to Mudminnow
And that is going on.....now. Tell me, within one mile and within one hour, where this hurricane will be Friday afternoon.
Go for it
Go for it
Posted on 10/6/16 at 12:46 pm to Mudminnow
quote:
storm has only a 10mile band of the strongest winds
so its not different than other hurricanes? whew
people don't realize that 40+ mph winds topples oak trees when the ground is wet.
Posted on 10/6/16 at 12:47 pm to RobbBobb
quote:
You are assuming that the eyewall will be on the coastline. As of now, it will not. So if the storm is 75 miles off the coast + the 75 miles Gainesville is from the coast = 150 miles from the eye. Not much impact at this point
The possibility that this hurricane will be 75 miles off shore is about the same as if it will be 20 miles inland. Regardless of which projection is more accurate, there is a reasonable likelihood this storm could affect Gainesville in a big way.
There is, of course, no certainty that Gainesville will experience flooding, major loss of property, water shortages and power outages, but it is much more than just a remote possibility. We all agree football is not as important as personal safety, but this football game is big business and it needs to be played ---- somewhere. If it gets cancelled that will fall squarely on the University of Florida, not mother nature. This situation was preventable.
This post was edited on 10/6/16 at 12:48 pm
Posted on 10/6/16 at 12:47 pm to shel311
You realize the cone is very very dumbed down graphical depiction of probability?
At a given point, while it is possible to veer to an edge, it is no where near as likely as near the modeled path.
I can't say exact numbers, and I don't even know if it is an standardized depiction, but the outer edges are probably <5-10%
At a given point, while it is possible to veer to an edge, it is no where near as likely as near the modeled path.
I can't say exact numbers, and I don't even know if it is an standardized depiction, but the outer edges are probably <5-10%
Posted on 10/6/16 at 12:52 pm to Topwater Trout
I suppose sometime around 2200 hrs. Sunday some UF fan will sit sweating in the dark and wonder "Why is this happening?"
Posted on 10/6/16 at 12:53 pm to Mudminnow
There is Tropical Storm Warning for the East coast of Florida. The chances that Gainesville sees Tropical Storm force winds are very high.
Infrastructure damage is unknown. Sure the weather at game time is forecasted to be fine but there are too many unknowns with too many variables with less than 48 hours until scheduled game time.
Is there a contingency plan for power if the stadium has none?
Is there a plan for EMS, Security, and Fire personnel if those typically available for a game are needed somewhere else?
Is there a plan for teams safety if the forecasted path shifts West in the next 24 hours?
Is there a plan if the forecasted speed slows down and this monster is sitting 60 miles from UF at game time?
And another thing that hasn't been discussed much is that Hurricanes spawn Tornadoes which can do massive damage.
These questions may have answers. BUT say something. Instead UF is keeping quiet and acting like nothing is wrong.
Infrastructure damage is unknown. Sure the weather at game time is forecasted to be fine but there are too many unknowns with too many variables with less than 48 hours until scheduled game time.
Is there a contingency plan for power if the stadium has none?
Is there a plan for EMS, Security, and Fire personnel if those typically available for a game are needed somewhere else?
Is there a plan for teams safety if the forecasted path shifts West in the next 24 hours?
Is there a plan if the forecasted speed slows down and this monster is sitting 60 miles from UF at game time?
And another thing that hasn't been discussed much is that Hurricanes spawn Tornadoes which can do massive damage.
These questions may have answers. BUT say something. Instead UF is keeping quiet and acting like nothing is wrong.
Posted on 10/6/16 at 12:54 pm to shel311
The issued state of emergency for Gainesville, they are cancelling classes at 3 pm and closing campus at 5 pm and u realized they are in evacuation route right. This may be a cat 5 storm, and I hope u realize the higher the cat rating more difficulty the models have with them.
I took dozens of expert depos in Katrina litigation and to say we have great ability to predict hurricanes is a complete lie. I could post you depo After depo where they All admit that we have big problem on predictions relating to the strength and models just can't get that right, and that hurricane prediction is most difficult task in modern weather production and all the major models have flaws etc. this was years ago but don't bet your life on flawed computer models. That is why they have the big cone now.
I took dozens of expert depos in Katrina litigation and to say we have great ability to predict hurricanes is a complete lie. I could post you depo After depo where they All admit that we have big problem on predictions relating to the strength and models just can't get that right, and that hurricane prediction is most difficult task in modern weather production and all the major models have flaws etc. this was years ago but don't bet your life on flawed computer models. That is why they have the big cone now.
Posted on 10/6/16 at 1:04 pm to TigerFred
These are the thoughts going through heads at UF
quote:Use batteries
Is there a contingency plan for power if the stadium has none?
quote:Tebow
Is there a plan for EMS, Security, and Fire personnel if those typically available for a game are needed somewhere else?
quote:Zika rhymes with Zima
Is there a plan for teams safety if the forecasted path shifts West in the next 24 hours?
quote:Bacon on jalapeños. My life is complete
Is there a plan if the forecasted speed slows down and this monster is sitting 60 miles from UF at game time?
Posted on 10/6/16 at 1:16 pm to bigberg2000
quote:
I thought the whole argument was that it doesn't matter what the weather is like in Gainesville but the resources needed to put on a college football game when everyone on the coast will need everything available.
This. Too many folks here and in FL. are not even considering this, it seems.
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