re: Why does everyone keep saying we aren’t competing for championships this year?

You either are not watching the games or you do not know what you are seeing.

I had years when I was working and had to listen to all the games on the radio

We are thin at spots, we have had some injuries and we are young on the o line

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Every time we step on the field we have a realistic chance to win.

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I tend to agree with this for the most part. The thing is that having a realistic chance to win each week does not mean you have a realistic chance to win all of them, which is what it takes to compete for championships.

You play 8 SEC games every year. If every game is a pick ‘em (50% chance to win), the probability of winning at least 6 games is only about 14%. And a 6-2 conference record probably doesn’t get you to the SECCG. Let’s say you need to go at least 7-1 in conference to win the division. That’s now a 3.5% chance with the same weekly odds.

So even though you have a “realistic chance” in each game, you really don’t have a realistic chance to win the division. You’re a long shot.

Even if you have a 70% chance to win each game (corresponding to a ~7 point favorite every week) you only have about a 26% chance to go 7-1 or better.

LSU is already 2-0 in conference play so it’s a little easier - need to win 5 out of 6 games to get into that conversation. Still only 11% probability at 50% win probability each week. And the reality is that we are dogs right now in many of our remaining matchups.

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People keep repeating that, but I think special teams have improved.

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They’ve definitely improved since week 1, but there really wasn’t anywhere to go but up.

We are in the bottom half of the SEC in:
- Punt return avg (#9)
- Kickoff return avg (#10)
- Opponent punt return avg (#9)
- Opponent kick return avg (#10)
- Kickoff touchback % (#13)
- FG % (#13)*
- PAT % (#11)*

*Largely because of the FSU game.

OTOH, we are in the top half of the SEC in net punting (#3).

It seems to be getting better, but there’s a long way to go. Our biggest problem to my eyes is that we don’t have a guy who can consistently kick off to the endzone. We are a little spoiled by having Atkins all those years, but it’s a problem and there’s probably no solution this year. We just have to hope it doesn’t burn us at a key moment.

Great point . One game at a time !!

Have you watched a game? What about this team makes you think we could compete for a shot at Atlanta?

If Ole Miss and Alabama forfeit the rest of the season we might, MIGHT, make it to Atlanta.