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re: Where Does LSU Land? - National Seed Wise

Posted on 5/21/23 at 5:37 pm to
Posted by Adam4848
LA
Member since Apr 2006
19777 posts
Posted on 5/21/23 at 5:37 pm to
Something to think about is where will Tennessee land.

Will they host at 15 or 16 or be the 2 seed in those regionals? A dangerous team that could ruin the day for a top of the line super team.
Posted by Walker wild tiger
Member since Oct 2015
263 posts
Posted on 5/21/23 at 6:05 pm to
Hoover will still play a factor we will not dip any lower than 4 but could move to 2
Posted by Lige
Member since Nov 2015
2083 posts
Posted on 5/21/23 at 6:44 pm to
About right
Posted by BigTiger80
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2012
1192 posts
Posted on 5/21/23 at 6:55 pm to
If we get knocked out early of the SEC tourney then a 5 seed. If we win a game or two then we should be the 4th seed, maybe 3rd.
Posted by im4LSU
Hattiesburg, MS
Member since Aug 2004
34495 posts
Posted on 5/21/23 at 7:10 pm to
quote:

Doesn’t matter we lose out in Supers. Pitching injuries killed us. Period.


Your logic makes zero sense. We make it through a regional which takes 3 games to win, but lose in a super that only takes 2 to win because of lack of pitching depth?

Posted by Alt26
Member since Mar 2010
35564 posts
Posted on 5/21/23 at 7:53 pm to
quote:

But it’s premature to call it now before the SEC Tourney is over. So much can change.


Not at all.

Outside of the one-bid leagues, the conference tournaments in baseball (and basketball) are the most OVERRATED events in college sports. The selection committees have repeatedly shown they put no emphasis on them whatsoever.

Two years ago this board was apoplectic after LSU lost an “elimination” game to Georgia on the first day of the SECT. That loss didn’t matter at all. LSU made the NCAAT.

The same thing happened last year with Ole Miss. They were “on the bubble” and lost their opening game in the SECT. They have a National Championship banner to prove that loss didn’t matter.

The resumes of the multi-bid leagues are locked in. LSU could pitch their bullpen catcher on Wednesday and Mike the Tiger in Thursday, get run ruled in both games, and it would have zero impact.

Enjoy the SECT. But don’t sweat it
Posted by tarzana
TX Hwy 6-- the Brazos River Valley
Member since Sep 2015
32018 posts
Posted on 5/21/23 at 9:33 pm to
What happens if we go 2 and 'cue in the SEC Tourney? Particularly if the 2 losses are to Georgia and Aggy?

That could really turn off the selection committee and put LSU as low as 7 or 8.
Posted by extremelsu
Member since Aug 2013
5900 posts
Posted on 5/21/23 at 9:39 pm to
Scared of this wake forest team? The oregon state team LSU beat twice in ‘17 had a better team
Posted by TigerCub
Team Boxtard
Member since May 2006
22587 posts
Posted on 5/21/23 at 9:39 pm to
The committee will not base your seed off of two games as opposed to the other 56.
Posted by MikeTheTiger71
Member since Dec 2021
4488 posts
Posted on 5/21/23 at 10:35 pm to
quote:

The selection committees have repeatedly shown they put no emphasis on them whatsoever.


While this is generally true, making a deep run in the SEC tournament most definitely benefited Florida’s seeding last season. As close as the top SEC teams are in the RPI, I would not discount the impact the tourney might have on relative placement for the top 4.
Posted by Scoob
Near Exxon
Member since Jun 2009
23513 posts
Posted on 5/21/23 at 11:17 pm to
quote:


4 seed sets us up to face Wake with Floyd in marbles game of the CWS
unless...

You pitch Skenes 2nd.
He will in the regional.

Keep the pattern in Omaha, and you can get Floyd in a winnable matchup game 1, and then Skenes against Wake. You then are in the driver's seat; Wake burns their starters getting out of the loser's bracket and it becomes a bats matchup to make the final.
Posted by 3rdPart Tiger
Member since Oct 2007
6607 posts
Posted on 5/22/23 at 9:54 am to
Listening to D1 Baseball's Nerdcast at the moment.

Their projections before conference tourneys start:

Bracket 1 in Omaha (1 v 8; 4 v 5)

1 Wake Forest
16 Texas

8 Virginia
9 Kentucky

4 LSU
13 Oklahoma State

5 Stanford
12 Auburn

Bracket 2 in Omaha (2 v 7; 3 v 6)

2 Florida
15 Boston College

7 Vanderbilt
10 Coastal

3 Arkansas
14 Alabama

6 Clemson
11 Miami
This post was edited on 5/22/23 at 1:49 pm
Posted by Datsmoneydude
Member since Jun 2021
3390 posts
Posted on 5/22/23 at 10:10 am to
There is no chance in hell Kentucky is the #9 overall seed. Zero
Posted by Yeti_Chaser
Member since Nov 2017
12885 posts
Posted on 5/22/23 at 10:13 am to
quote:

There is no chance in hell Kentucky is the #9 overall seed. Zero

They are #2 in RPI and we dont know how much the committee cares about that so I wouldn't say zero chance
Posted by TigerCub
Team Boxtard
Member since May 2006
22587 posts
Posted on 5/22/23 at 10:13 am to
quote:

There is no chance in hell Kentucky is the #9 overall seed.


I kind of agree with that. They have good metrics but they also lost 6 out of 10 SEC series including 6 out of their last 7.
Posted by geauxtigers33
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2014
13735 posts
Posted on 5/22/23 at 10:19 am to
quote:

Keep the pattern in Omaha, and you can get Floyd in a winnable matchup game 1, and then Skenes against Wake. You then are in the driver's seat; Wake burns their starters getting out of the loser's bracket and it becomes a bats matchup to make the final.


Sooooooo what CPM did in the 2015 CWS?
Posted by MikeTheTiger71
Member since Dec 2021
4488 posts
Posted on 5/22/23 at 10:21 am to
quote:

They are #2 in RPI and we dont know how much the committee cares about that so I wouldn't say zero chance


I think the biggest issue for me is the disconnect between what they are projecting for Kentucky vs SC. Their metrics, RPI, and conference standing are comparable, but they have UK at #9 and SC shutout. I could see UK getting one of the last seeds and SC not getting one, but if they think that highly of Kentucky, then SC would earn a seed as well.
Posted by 3rdPart Tiger
Member since Oct 2007
6607 posts
Posted on 5/22/23 at 10:26 am to
quote:

Zero


I wouldn't say zero.

They have the #2 RPI, #1 SoS, #9 NC SoS, and #1 NC RPI.

Wouldn't be shocking if they're the first SEC National Seed outside of the top 8.

Let's also not forget UK swept USCe.
This post was edited on 5/22/23 at 10:29 am
Posted by UpToPar
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2008
22968 posts
Posted on 5/22/23 at 11:43 am to
quote:

LSU has better numbers but UF has the East and a share of the SEC.


The committee doesnt give two fricks about winning a regular season conference title, much less a regular season conference division title. That legitimately carries zero weight.
Posted by 3rdPart Tiger
Member since Oct 2007
6607 posts
Posted on 5/22/23 at 12:01 pm to
quote:

That legitimately carries zero weight.


I mean, Texas A&M had an RPI of 25 and Q1 (18-11) after the SEC Tourney last year and was the #5 National Seed.

You don't think winning the West maybe factored into it?
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