re: We are all Georgia fans.

I'm clearly an FU fan on Saturday.

If Florida upsets UGA, their profile elevates and our forthcoming beatcown of the Gators Nov. 11 will be more prestigious. Furthermore, since Georgia will still be the East champion regardless, they will suffer a 2nd loss when we take them out in Atlanta Dec 2., thus effectively scrubbing them out of playoff contention.

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That, and also frick Florida

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They aren’t going to keep an SEC team out lmao.

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With the major media storyline being about how the SEC is down this year, they absolutely will keep the SEC out if they can. The folks on the committee from other conferences like the PAC12 especially would love nothing more than to leave the SEC out. Even if LSU wins out and wins the SEC, it would still be a long shot to get the votes to get to #4 without a couple of other teams absolutely imploding. The Ole Miss loss all but put us out of the playoff talk.

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Napier can be a dangerous man when his back's against the wall.

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Dawgs are gonna destroy the Gators like a chew toy. Let’s just hope we beat Bama and go from there.

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Dawgs are gonna destroy the Gators like a chew toy

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Statistical analyses of the two teams' performances this year seems to suggest that, but in this rivalry you can throw relative team talent out the window.

Florida sports a serious wildcard in QB Mertz, one of the highest-rated passers in Div I football. And Georgia has mysteriously looked quite vulnerable in games this year, notably Auburn and South Carolina. I'm taking Gators and the points, if not to win outright.

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This doesn't compute big fella. If they win out and we beat them, they're likely to stay ahead of us as 12-1 defending back-to-back champs. That takes a spot away from us getting in potentially. If they lose a game and we also beat them, we would both be 11-2 with LSU having the head-to-head (and likely the Heisman winner), so we would have to be ahead of them. Don't overthink it.

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First, LSU can't reach the SEC Championship game unless Ole Miss loses again. It's Ole Miss, so anything is possible, but on paper Georgia looks to be the most likely loss for them.

That aside, LSU's path as a 2 loss team is the same path Auburn (almost) took in 2017. On 10/31/17, Auburn was 6-2 with losses to Clemson and LSU. They were ranked #14 in the first CFP poll. They would go on to be #1 Georgia and #1 Alabama to end the season as 10-2 SEC West Champs. More importantly, they were ranked #2 in the final regular season CFP poll AHEAD of undefeated Wisconsin and 1 loss Oklahoma, Alabama, Georgia, and Miami.

Auburn went on to play Georgia in the SEC Championship game. Had they won, it seemed highly unlikely they were going to DROP from the #2 spot which meant they were going to get in over multiple one loss teams (namely Alabama and Wisconsin)

Right now LSU is ranked 15 behind several 0-1 loss teams. However, many of those teams still have games against one another. Washington and Oregon still have to play Utah and Oregon St.. Michigan still has to play Ohio State and Penn State. Ole Miss has to play Georgia. It seems likely Oklahoma and Texas will have to play again. Those teams are all currently ranked ahead of LSU. If LSU continues to win they are going to keep creeping up the rankings.

Personally, I don't see a one loss conf. championship game loser (Georgia in this discussion) getting in ahead of a 2 loss SEC championship winner (LSU in this discussion). When Georgia reached the playoffs in 2021 despite losing the SECCG it was because the only other 1 loss team in contention was Notre Dame...who wasn't in a conference and, thus, didn't have the argument over Georgia that they (ND) were a conf. champ while Georgia wasn't.

Last season TCU was undefeated and ranked #3 in the final reg season CFP poll. They lost the Big 12 championship game, yet still reached the playoffs. However, that was likely due, in large part because: (a) #4 USC lost in their conf. champ game and (b) teams #5 Ohio St. and #6 Alabama, didn't play in a conf. championship game. Thus, there was really no compelling argument for a 2 loss conf. champ to jump them because their was no 2 loss conf champ outside of Clemson in the ACC.

But here is maybe the most interesting thing people are forgetting. 9-2 LSU was ranked #5 in the CFP poll heading into their game vs. A&M last year behind UGA, Michigan, OSU, TCU. However, they were ranked AHEAD of 10-1 Pac 12 leader USC and 10-1 ACC leader Clemson. In that final regular season weekend #2 Ohio St. lost to Michigan. That dropped OSU from #2 to #5 and allowed #6 USC to move up to #4. The nauseating unknown is what would have happened if #5 LSU would have beaten A&M? Would the voters have put #6 USC ahead of #5 LSU regardless because USC beat #15 ND, while LSU beat 4-7 A&M? Maybe. But even in that scenario it's hard to imagine LSU would have dropped from #5. They may have stayed there. But not dropped. That would have opened the door for LSU to get in with a win over #1 UGA in the SECCG.

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The nauseating unknown is what would have happened if #5 LSU would have beaten A&M?

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That would have opened the door for LSU to get in with a win over #1 UGA in the SECCG.

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I hear what you're saying, but I don't see any way that last year's LSU team could have beaten that Georgia team, so the point is moot.

Yes, beating 4&7 would have been great, and would have put us in a better position after the SECCG for a better bowl. I just don't think we would have made it past Georgia either way to get a chance at the final four.

Just my opinion.

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I hear what you're saying, but I don't see any way that last year's LSU team could have beaten that Georgia team, so the point is moot.

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That's immaterial to the current discussion. What is being discussed is whether a 2 loss SEC champ could get into the playoffs? Prior to the A&M game LSU was on the precipice of possibly doing just that. They were ranked #5 in the CFP poll going into the last week of the season. A week where either #2 (Ohio St) or (#3 Michigan) was certain to lose. At that time all LSU had to do is move up one spot to be in the mix.

Again, 10-1 USC was #6, so it is ENTIRELY possible their victory over #15 ND would have vaulted them to #4 ahead of LSU even if LSU would have beaten A&M. The bigger question is would LSU have dropped from #5 to #6 even with a win vs. A&M?

That said, even if LSU would have dropped to #6 behind (presumably) 10-1 Ohio State, LSU could have very much been in position to grab a spot in the top 4. First, they had an opportunity to beat #1 UGA. No one else would have had a "better" win than that. Second, Ohio St. wasn't playing in a conf. championship game. Thus, they had no way to "improve" their resume. In that scenario LSU would have beaten #1 UGA, with #3 TCU and #4 USC losing their championship games.

That would have left the committee with a VERY interesting decision. Would they leave the SEC champ (LSU) out while putting THREE teams who DID NOT win their conference, Georgia, TCU and Ohio St, in?

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That's immaterial to the current discussion. What is being discussed is whether a 2 loss SEC champ could get into the playoffs? Prior to the A&M game LSU was on the precipice of possibly doing just that. They were ranked #5 in the CFP poll going into the last week of the season. A week where either #2 (Ohio St) or (#3 Michigan) was certain to lose. At that time all LSU had to do is move up one spot to be in the mix.

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Okay, I see your point and I agree. With LSU at #5 going into the aTm game, if we'd won and then beaten #1 Georgia in the SECCG I don't see how we could have gone anywhere but up into the final four - especially with how that final week played out for everyone else.