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Started By
Message
re: The one thing about this game that concerns me: Vegas
Posted on 11/2/18 at 1:57 pm to LSU Groupee
Posted on 11/2/18 at 1:57 pm to LSU Groupee
quote:
Tua's season is running circles around Joes
quote:
our HC is not yet a pimple on little Nicky's butt.
quote:
As for as the line is concerned, I am surprised its not higher.
quote:
But that will not stop me from cheering the guys on from start to finish.
You are the exact type of "fan" I despise. You rag on your team and talk shite about them leading up to the game, then when they win, you don your Walmart LSU shirt and join the crowd for a bit..everything about your mentality makes me sick. If I knew who you were, I'd check you at Sonic in a heartbeat.
Please. Go be a "fan" of another team, we sure as frick don't need you around here.
1
Posted on 11/2/18 at 2:05 pm to loopback
I’ve been cleaning up off of Vegas making us underdogs all year, and I intend to do so again this weekend. Anytime LSU is getting points in Death Valley I jump on that shite. Easy money all day long. Oh and Buck Fama for good measure.
Posted on 11/2/18 at 2:09 pm to loopback
Vegas puts the line in the middle of where people will bet. not the predicted outcome of the game. people stupid
Posted on 11/2/18 at 2:10 pm to loopback
quote:The preponderance of the evidence - including LSU's track record over the past 7 years.
What are you basing this on?
quote:Yes, to both.
Bama's body of work? No.
LSU's body of work No.
quote:Not many. In fact, the magnitude of the point spread appears to be without precedent for a #4 rated team or better.
How many times have you ever said that the #3 team in the country was "unlikely to win" over #1?
quote:No, it's based on Bama's history, coach and performance on the field in 2018. Just because they haven't played as difficult of a schedule doesn't mean we've received zero information.
You're still basing that statement on the Bama media perception and not on actual insight and facts.
Posted on 11/2/18 at 3:18 pm to loopback
quote:
It's Vegas and this insane 14.5 point spread. I cannot figure out why this spread is so big.
Vegas is usually really close on most games. This game has so much Bama hype going into it can you imagine the money flow on Bama if Vegas posted a "pickem" line. They have to take into account what the market will bear. They move the line based on money wagered on one side or the other and try to keep it balanced. Even Bama -3 would have 90% of the money on Bama.
Posted on 11/2/18 at 3:22 pm to H-Town Tiger
You are so dense you actually did not understand what I was trying to say. Tired of wasting time... you may need some natural herbs to help oxygen flow to your brains cells and enable alertness.
This post was edited on 11/2/18 at 3:26 pm
Posted on 11/2/18 at 3:26 pm to GetmorewithLes
Correct. And at worst they get the 10% if it is too even. But they adjust based on what the betting public is doing. Bottom line Vegas will always win one way or the other.
This post was edited on 11/2/18 at 3:29 pm
Posted on 11/2/18 at 3:46 pm to Buckeye Jeaux
quote:
Consevative books make a killing with the vigorish alone. 50/50 split is ideal for the time-tested books. The "smart money" comes in with big bets in the last minutes before the kickoff. Books are like banks. Some do higher risk deals, some stick with the middle of the pack, and some want no risk exposure whatsoever - just want the vig.
All of this wrong
Obviously they prefer not to be too exposed but they don’t live off just the vig, they couldn’t book managers will tell you that
Posted on 11/2/18 at 4:05 pm to Canwoodtiger
quote:
And at worst they get the 10% if it is too even
Clemson’s huge win was a massive loss for Las Vegas bookmakers
Las Vegas sportsbooks suffer ‘colossal’ losses from NFL weekend action
quote:
Bottom line Vegas will always win one way or the other.I’m
Over the long haul sure, but not from just collecting vig
Posted on 11/2/18 at 4:18 pm to H-Town Tiger
Vegas linesetters are not so much experts on the best football team but they are experts on where the public is most likely to place their bets. They could care less on who wins the game. Their interest is establishing a line that is the most likely to split the betting public right down the middle. If they think the public is mos likely to consider Alabama the overwhelming favorite and most likely to attract the most bets and money, the will establish a very high line for Alabama therefore incouraging more bets and money the other way. If all the money flows toward LSU, They will awing the line the in the opposite direction. Very simple! Nothing to do with the best Team or who is likely to win. All based on how the public will place their bets!
Posted on 11/2/18 at 4:56 pm to kew48
quote:
All based on how the public will place their bets!
I'm sure they run some numbers for a starting point, but they adjust it for the public.
This won't make anyone happy, including myself, but I always start putting together spreadsheets in anticipation of big games, mostly to make myself feel better about the matchup, though I have not done it in a while. Bear in mind, we are talking sports and this is just straight numbers.
I took all of Alabama's opponents and took away their game with bama and compared their avg points for and against with what they did vs bama and average it out over all bama's opponents to see how much different bama did compared to their opponent's season average. I did the same for LSU. Below are the results.
LSU scored, on average, 10.51 ppg more than their opponents allow on average. And allowed 21.56 less than what their opponent's average on offense.
Bama scored, on average, 25.46 ppg more than their opponent's allow on average. And allowed 16.44 less than what their opponent's average on offense.
So bama did better offensively and LSU did better defensively. Though bama has the edge overall.
LSU 10.51 and -21.56
ALA 25.46 and -16.44
If you use those number in relation to what each team averages offensively and defensively, as in LSU scores 10.51 points more than what bama averages giving up and LSU allows 21.56 points less than what bama averages on offense then do the same with bama and take the average of the two you get a final score of
LSU 20.66
ALA 36.07
Which is pretty close to the spread and the over for this game.
I don't think there's going to be as much scoring as those numbers suggest and think it's going to be a closer game. But it shows how math can give an idea of how some spreads are determined.
This post was edited on 11/2/18 at 5:03 pm
Posted on 11/2/18 at 5:09 pm to loopback
quote:It's not big.
I cannot figure out why this spread is so big.
Posted on 11/2/18 at 5:10 pm to lsufan_26
Yeah I made some good money off that game
Posted on 11/2/18 at 5:17 pm to noonan
quote:
noonan
Did you factor road games vs home games? This is about 3 points (maybe 4-5 in Death Valley), and then factor a half without Devin White (Not sure how to calculate that, but may be able to look at the Florida game without Jacob Phillips). The loss of White could neutralize the home field advantage as far as points go, but the inability to predict how good Queen will play is the x-factor on defense.
Posted on 11/2/18 at 5:22 pm to Cracking
No, I did not. My post wasn't really picking a score, just showing that there can be a logical way of using numbers to get the spread.
I might do that though. Only problem is we will have more cupcakes at home than bama would have played on the road, so that sample might not work. But I'll go ahead and do it. I'm not sure what to do about White missing half the game.
I might do that though. Only problem is we will have more cupcakes at home than bama would have played on the road, so that sample might not work. But I'll go ahead and do it. I'm not sure what to do about White missing half the game.
Posted on 11/2/18 at 5:35 pm to loopback
This says it all about Alabana.
This post was edited on 10/28/19 at 9:25 am
Posted on 11/2/18 at 5:41 pm to noonan
Just did the numbers based on home games for us and away games for bama. Bama only had 3 away games; ole miss, ark, tenn. We had 5 true home games; SELA, LA tech, ole miss, UGA, miss state.
We stayed about the same, offensively and about 3 points better defensively. Bama did about 4 points worse defensively but almost 8 points better offensively.
LSU 10.63 and -24.88
ALA 32.99 and -12.07
Final score
LSU 26.01
Ala 40.49
I need to look at my other post to make sure I worded all that correctly
We stayed about the same, offensively and about 3 points better defensively. Bama did about 4 points worse defensively but almost 8 points better offensively.
LSU 10.63 and -24.88
ALA 32.99 and -12.07
Final score
LSU 26.01
Ala 40.49
I need to look at my other post to make sure I worded all that correctly
Posted on 11/2/18 at 5:49 pm to loopback
Our QB and offense as a whole is not very good.
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