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Started By
Message
The one thing about this game that concerns me: Vegas
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:29 am
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:29 am
After two weeks of hype and analysis by everyone with any interest in these two teams, I'm left with only one thing that still concerns me about the Tigers chances Saturday night.
It's not Tua
It's not our offense
It's not Little Nicky
It's not our O line or D line
It's Vegas and this insane 14.5 point spread. I cannot figure out why this spread is so big.
-It's a home game
-It's at night
-This LSU team has MUCH better QB play
-This LSU team is MUCH better coached
-This LSU team is battle tested and finds ways to win
-This LSU team has a all-world place kicker
-Dave Aranda
-Bama hasn't been tested
-Bama 1st team hasn't had to play a full game yet (soft)
-Bama will be overconfident
-Bama has not faced a Defense even close to what we are
-Bama D is not as good as previous years
-LSU has lost 7 straight (Law of Averages)
-LSU is angry
-LSU is hungry
-Officials will have to hold back (they are in the spotlight after this Bama Bias talk)
-#FREEDEVINWHITE
Does Vegas know something we don't? Betting against Bama to cover seems like EASY money to me.
I think Vegas (like everyone in the country, is giving the Gumps more than they deserve here based simply on history and this Juggernaut perception. I think they are mistaken.
Here's to punching those imbred, toothless Grumps right in the gums Saturday night.
LSU will win, it will never be in doubt, and the Gump tears will be a beautiful thing to behold.
It's not Tua
It's not our offense
It's not Little Nicky
It's not our O line or D line
It's Vegas and this insane 14.5 point spread. I cannot figure out why this spread is so big.
-It's a home game
-It's at night
-This LSU team has MUCH better QB play
-This LSU team is MUCH better coached
-This LSU team is battle tested and finds ways to win
-This LSU team has a all-world place kicker
-Dave Aranda
-Bama hasn't been tested
-Bama 1st team hasn't had to play a full game yet (soft)
-Bama will be overconfident
-Bama has not faced a Defense even close to what we are
-Bama D is not as good as previous years
-LSU has lost 7 straight (Law of Averages)
-LSU is angry
-LSU is hungry
-Officials will have to hold back (they are in the spotlight after this Bama Bias talk)
-#FREEDEVINWHITE
Does Vegas know something we don't? Betting against Bama to cover seems like EASY money to me.
I think Vegas (like everyone in the country, is giving the Gumps more than they deserve here based simply on history and this Juggernaut perception. I think they are mistaken.
Here's to punching those imbred, toothless Grumps right in the gums Saturday night.
LSU will win, it will never be in doubt, and the Gump tears will be a beautiful thing to behold.
This post was edited on 11/2/18 at 11:33 am
47
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:31 am to loopback
This is the same Vegas that had LSU's season win total at 7, right?
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:31 am to BMoney
quote:
This is the same Vegas that had LSU's season win total at 7, right?
Same one that had us as dogs vs Auburn and UGA too.
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:32 am to BMoney
quote:
This is the same Vegas that had LSU's season win total at 7, right?
Sure but they've got a lot more information to work with now
They're not going to be right about everything
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:32 am to loopback
Joe Public bets on Alabama every week. While they should be the favorite, that line is inflated.
Also, how has Vegas done this year handicapping LSU?
Also, how has Vegas done this year handicapping LSU?
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:32 am to loopback
I definitely did not read your entire post, but wouldn't you have thought just two weeks ago that Ohio State at -12 @ Purdue would have been easy money?
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:32 am to loopback
Vegas is smarter than you are
Even moreso as the season goes along and they acquire more information
Even moreso as the season goes along and they acquire more information
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:33 am to Powerman
Vegas has one job to do... get you to bet money. They're succeeding at that.
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:34 am to Guava Jelly
They were 30 points off on Georgia line. FWIW
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:34 am to loopback
I think Devin white is worth a TD. Without his suspension, this would be more like a TD spread.
Also this is probably Bama's best team under Saban because they finally have a legit QB and can put up points.
Also this is probably Bama's best team under Saban because they finally have a legit QB and can put up points.
This post was edited on 11/2/18 at 11:37 am
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:35 am to loopback
All the money is coming in on bama, when we win/cover Vegas will clean up. It’s the right line to get action on both sides.
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:35 am to loopback
“Vegas” picks a spread that they believe will put 50% of the betters on one side and 50% on the other.
The line is a reflection of opinion on a feedback loop between Vegas and the betting public. That is all.
The line is a reflection of opinion on a feedback loop between Vegas and the betting public. That is all.
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:36 am to loopback
quote:
It's Vegas and this insane 14.5 point spread. I cannot figure out why this spread is so big.
If it means anything, Vegas has not had a handle on LSU all year. They had LSU a 3 pt dog against miami, a 7 point dog vs UGA, a favorite vs UF, bug dog at Auburn.
If there is 1 thing I am confident of is that it wont be Bama by 12-17 points. I think it's either close, and LSU win or Bama BIG!!
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:37 am to loopback
FYI home dogs are one of the most lucrative propositions in sports betting. The public likes to overbet favorites.
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:37 am to ChaseMac
That's a very good point.
I just hope it's not something about the Xs and Os of this game that Vegas sees and everyone else doesn't.
I just hope it's not something about the Xs and Os of this game that Vegas sees and everyone else doesn't.
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:39 am to loopback
quote:
Does Vegas know something we don't?
They are objective, you are not.
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:39 am to loopback
It concerns me that there really isn't one matchup in which we have the advantage. The 3 things we are leaning on to win this games is.
1. Crowd factor being an advantage
2. Playing with a ton of emotion (Potential to be a disadvantage if we get down early)
3. We HAVE to out Coach and Out scheme them.
#3 will be tough to do on the offensive side of the ball.
Overall we will have to play our best game, and the coaches will have to coach their best game for us to pull this out. It is definitely possible though. Bigger underdogs have won before.
1. Crowd factor being an advantage
2. Playing with a ton of emotion (Potential to be a disadvantage if we get down early)
3. We HAVE to out Coach and Out scheme them.
#3 will be tough to do on the offensive side of the ball.
Overall we will have to play our best game, and the coaches will have to coach their best game for us to pull this out. It is definitely possible though. Bigger underdogs have won before.
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:39 am to ChaseMac
quote:
All the money is coming in on bama, when we win/cover Vegas will clean up. It’s the right line to get action on both sides.
How do you know this?
I bet the money is evenly split on both sides. If not Vegas goes out of business.
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:40 am to H-Town Tiger
quote:
Does Vegas know something we don't?
I disagree. I have been very objective about this game. It's everyone else that is giving Bama more credit than what they've done thusfar.
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:41 am to loopback
quote:
-This LSU team has MUCH better QB play
-This LSU team is MUCH better coached
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