- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: The one thing about this game that concerns me: Vegas
Posted on 11/2/18 at 12:07 pm to Canwoodtiger
Posted on 11/2/18 at 12:07 pm to Canwoodtiger
quote:
Did you do any research on how bad the opposing D's were?
Of course I have. That’s all anyone has been talking about for 2 weeks.
Do you know what all those teams have in common? They have played Alabama. Those defensive numbers are sqewed because they have played Alabama. I’m not saying their schedule has been good, but the offensive efficiency for Alabama is unparalleled.
0
Posted on 11/2/18 at 12:08 pm to loopback
quote:
Does Vegas know something we don't?
I love when people say shite like this.
Posted on 11/2/18 at 12:10 pm to loopback
quote:
This LSU team has MUCH better QB play
6 TD's and 3 interceptions and around 50% completion. Etling's numbers were better. Burrows makes some timely throws, but let's not get crazy here.
Posted on 11/2/18 at 12:11 pm to S
quote:
Does Vegas know something we don't?
I love when people say shite like this.
UH, do you know your profession better than me? Especially if it involves a shite ton of money??!??!?
Posted on 11/2/18 at 12:13 pm to loopback
Well considering they are in Vegas making shite loads of jack and we are in bayou pulling our yank, maybe the do know something we don’t.
Posted on 11/2/18 at 12:14 pm to loopback
Vegas is good at what they do....that's why there are really big hotels built around the Sports Betting/Gambling industry; however, there are multiple days every month when a casino loses money. Sometimes the math doesn't work in their favor over a short period of time.
There are also multiple times every year when they just get a line completely wrong. It happens. Is this one of those times? I guess we'll find out Saturday.
There are also multiple times every year when they just get a line completely wrong. It happens. Is this one of those times? I guess we'll find out Saturday.
Posted on 11/2/18 at 12:18 pm to H-Town Tiger
Aggressive books sometimes try to pick winners. Consevative books make a killing with the vigorish alone. 50/50 split is ideal for the time-tested books. The "smart money" comes in with big bets in the last minutes before the kickoff.
Books are like banks. Some do higher risk deals, some stick with the middle of the pack, and some want no risk exposure whatsoever - just want the vig.
Books are like banks. Some do higher risk deals, some stick with the middle of the pack, and some want no risk exposure whatsoever - just want the vig.
quote:Hard for them to get a line "wrong". They just slide it one way or another til the bets even out. And Vegas has a damn good idea which way the "smart money" will go at the vert last minute. Nearly all the action right now is public money.
There are also multiple times every year when they just get a line completely wrong.
This post was edited on 11/2/18 at 12:25 pm
Posted on 11/2/18 at 12:19 pm to loopback
Vegas bases its models on all games. Doesn't mean the model is going to call a specific game correctly.
Posted on 11/2/18 at 12:19 pm to Tigersonfire
quote:
Vegas's line has absolutely nothing to do.with who they think will win. It has everything to do with trying to get people to bet one way or the other to make their books even.
Therefore, the Vegas line is a reflection of how the betting pubic views this game, and thus a “prediction” by the betting public. It’s not necessarily Vegas’ prediction, but it can be looked at as a prediction of sorts. Why do wise guys like yourself always feel the need to educate people on how Vegas betting lines work?
The betting public has consistently under valued LSU over the last 2 years (11-1 ATS) because of the public perception of Coach O. The betting public does not think he is as good of a coach as he actually is.
This post was edited on 11/2/18 at 12:20 pm
Posted on 11/2/18 at 12:21 pm to TigerBlood17
quote:
the public perception of Coach O. The betting public does not think he is as good of a coach as he actually is.
They must read the rant!
Posted on 11/2/18 at 12:25 pm to JBuffett
quote:
6 TD's and 3 interceptions and around 50% completion. Etling's numbers were better. Burrows makes some timely throws, but let's not get crazy here.
Well there's something about our performance this year that's not being captured by the tradtional stats, and that's why Vegas has been wrong.
We take the name of the teams off the stats, put them next to each other and no sane person would say that we should be able to hang with this team. The whole has been greater than the sum of the parts for us.
This post was edited on 11/2/18 at 12:26 pm
Posted on 11/2/18 at 12:28 pm to Canwoodtiger
quote:
FIFY.. you could have left out the first sentence and the rest would have been Ok but had to adjust after the NO...case closed and have a nice life Boss!
The only case closed is you don’t know what you are talking about and simply repeating an age old cliche which sounds like it makes sense but it doesn’t work that way. Read something from a sports book manager, they wouldn’t make money if all they did was collect juice. Just look at the link the guy I quoted provided. Almost nothing is under 60-40. Check Vegas Insiders, it shows the % bet on each team. Vegas roots, they have to. Read this article from last year and tell me how they are losing money if they get 50-50 and take Juice?
LINK
Posted on 11/2/18 at 12:36 pm to GumboPot
quote:
You are getting down voted and I don’t understand why. Mathematically this is the way it has to work
He’s getting dv’ed because that’s not how it works. He’s repeat age old cliche The information on which side has more money bet is readily availabe
Posted on 11/2/18 at 12:44 pm to loopback
quote:
It's not Tua It's not our offense It's not Little Nicky It's not our O line or D line
What in the frick are you talking about? Tua's season is running circles around Joes. His offense is ranked second in the nation and Joe's is ranked 86. As far as the little Nicky foolishness, our HC is not yet a pimple on little Nicky's butt.
As for as the line is concerned, I am surprised its not higher.
But that will not stop me from cheering the guys on from start to finish.
Posted on 11/2/18 at 12:46 pm to loopback
It has nothing to do with what they actually think. It is all based on what people will bet, and where they will make the most money.
Posted on 11/2/18 at 12:50 pm to eyepooted
quote:
Vegas has one job to do... get you to bet money. They're succeeding at that.
At 14.5 pts most money comes in on LSU. LSU should keep it within that. Hence Vegas loses a lot of money. That’s not a success on their part. Curious too why they feel comfortable keeping spread so high with all the money coming in on LSU
Posted on 11/2/18 at 1:00 pm to loopback
Vegas cares more about what the public will bet than what the final score will be. That's all there is to it.
Posted on 11/2/18 at 1:04 pm to noonan
The initial 14 pt spread was crazy but I kept waiting for that to tighten as people who know these teams would take the under. But it hasn't moved.
I would take the points and run and it is obvious to anyone that knows these teams and have watched them.
So evidently the public thinks the #3 team in the country can't touch this Bama team.
I would take the points and run and it is obvious to anyone that knows these teams and have watched them.
So evidently the public thinks the #3 team in the country can't touch this Bama team.
Posted on 11/2/18 at 1:06 pm to BMoney
Miami. Auburn. UGA.
Vegas.
Vegas.
Page 4 of 5
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News