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Started By
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re: The one thing about this game that concerns me: Vegas
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:51 am to loopback
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:51 am to loopback
The line is high because Bama has consistently been beating the spread. It's going higher because bettors who have watched the trend of Bama beating the spread continue to ride that horse.
0
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:51 am to loopback
Greg McElroy said this morning on SXM he thinks Bama wins easily and he really hopes LSU makes it even a game. He sees a blowout.
More than anything I think it is just the Bama reputation and the proverbial eye test. But you still have to play the game.
Everyone picked against LSU vs Auburn and Georgia but the Tigers won. It will definitely be a battle but LSU has the talent and heart to win.
More than anything I think it is just the Bama reputation and the proverbial eye test. But you still have to play the game.
Everyone picked against LSU vs Auburn and Georgia but the Tigers won. It will definitely be a battle but LSU has the talent and heart to win.
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:53 am to TigerBlood17
Did you do any research on how bad the opposing D's were? Most folks have not. They just assume invincibility. That is what Vegas wants you to think to even out everything. As duly noted they make their money on their 10% and if more than 50% take the wrong bet. Even if not they still make their 10% at least. They never lose in the long run.
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:53 am to Big Scrub TX
quote:
it is unlikely that they win.
What are you basing this on?
Bama's body of work? No.
LSU's body of work No.
How many times have you ever said that the #3 team in the country was "unlikely to win" over #1? These types of games are always close.
You're still basing that statement on the Bama media perception and not on actual insight and facts.
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:54 am to loopback
quote:
It's Vegas and this insane 14.5 point spread. I cannot figure out why this spread is so big.
you do realize Vegas deals with betting, not predicting games when they give you a point spread?
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:54 am to Buckeye Jeaux
quote:
They try to predict the point spread that will yield ZERO risk to them. So the winners and losers bet exactly the same amount. Then Vegas makes their money from the 10% betting fee.
no that’s exactly not how it works. They will move lines if they have too much exposure in 1 side but rarely do they get close to 50-50. They do inflate lines for public teams, that might be the case here. They have been getting pounded on the NFL the last couple of weeks with favorites covering
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:54 am to LSUButt
quote:
They don’t really. They go with money. And if insane money was going on LSU it would drop. The media drives attention, and when the public hears over and over how unstoppable Alabama is they put money on Bama.
EXACTLY!!!
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:56 am to loopback
Vegas has been off about LSU all year.
Vegas is about metrics, and when you take the names off of the teams and just look at the stats, I think most of us would say this team should be a 14 point dog to Bama.
LSU has overachieved relative to their statistics.
Vegas is about metrics, and when you take the names off of the teams and just look at the stats, I think most of us would say this team should be a 14 point dog to Bama.
LSU has overachieved relative to their statistics.
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:57 am to loopback
For 1,999,999,999,999th time. Vegas's line has absolutely nothing to do.with who they think will win. It has everything to do with trying to get people to bet one way or the other to make their books even. Then they clean up on the a ount it cost to make a bet.
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:57 am to SuperFanDan
quote:
Me thinks you don't understand how Vegas works. They're not telling you what they actually think the final score will be. They're setting a line that they think will get 50% to bet LSU and 50% to bet Bama. Then they win because they take a cut of every bettors money. John Q Public is loading up on Bama because they're usually an easy cover so Vegas has to inflate the point spread.
If Vegas sets a point spread that has every bettor on one side and the bettors are right, then Vegas loses their shirt.....sooo, Vegas tries for the 50/50 split.
No more, no less.
Now you know why the line is what it is.
You are getting down voted and I don’t understand why. Mathematically this is the way it has to work. Now Vegas may miss every once in a while with an initial spread and are unable to move the line quick enough to mitigate risk but they have other methods to hedge especially by moving the lines of other games that day.
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:57 am to loopback
Because the same amount of money is being bet on Alabama as on LSU.
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:58 am to loopback
It's about all those arrogant cousin frickers putting their trailer mortgages on the line because they think their team is the second coming.
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:58 am to H-Town Tiger
quote:
YES that’s how it typically works. They will move lines if they have too much exposure in 1 side and they end up getting close to 50-50 if they adjust lines to their advantage and effectively can use the media and perception to their advantage. They do inflate lines for public teams, that might be the case here. They have been getting pounded on the NFL the last couple of weeks with favorites covering
FIFY.. you could have left out the first sentence and the rest would have been Ok but had to adjust after the NO...case closed and have a nice life Boss!
This post was edited on 11/2/18 at 11:59 am
Posted on 11/2/18 at 12:00 pm to GumboPot
yeah he is basically right. Down votes come from the ignorant or the folks with an agenda or who are just being stupid. But who really gives a chitte about down votes LOL!
Posted on 11/2/18 at 12:01 pm to loopback
Vegas only sets an initial line where they think they'll get equal money bet on both sides, and then moves it based on the actions of the betting public.
So it's actually the betting public that determines what the line is.
So it's actually the betting public that determines what the line is.
Posted on 11/2/18 at 12:02 pm to loopback
LSU is 5-0 ATS as a dog the last two seasons.
They are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 SEC games
They are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 SEC games
Posted on 11/2/18 at 12:02 pm to loopback
quote:Wrong. There is not a single offense in the nation that could be that efficient, even considering the competition. It is what it is. That doesn’t mean they can’t be slowed down and beaten though. 2003 Oklahoma was “unbeatable” and they lost 2 to end the season. 2005 USC was “unbeatable” and lost to Texas. There is no such thing as an unbeatable team. Any given Saturday.
They haven't played anyone with a pulse. There are other teams that could replicate that against the same competition.
Posted on 11/2/18 at 12:05 pm to BMoney
quote:
This is the same Vegas that had LSU's season win total at 7, right?
6.5
Posted on 11/2/18 at 12:06 pm to loopback
quote:
It's Vegas and this insane 14.5 point spread. I cannot figure out why this spread is so big.
The same reason Florida was a 16.5 point favorite against LSU in 1997. It’s the metrics
and stats going into the game. Speaking of, guy on TR posted some interesting numbers about thar Florida team yesterday. Lot of comparisons to that Florida offense and Bama offense including their QB Doug Johnsons numbers as a first year starter versus Tua.
This post was edited on 11/2/18 at 12:07 pm
Posted on 11/2/18 at 12:07 pm to loopback
Vegas makes the spread based primarily on the analytics of the offensive and defensive statistics with some consideration for previous competition, injuries/suspensions and location of the game. They set the line as they see accurate and then adjust as the money dictates. It starts with objectivity based solely on the facts and then moves based on the $$$.
Sharps come in late and pour money on the game still based on the facts but also the extrinsic factors and history of the game. Things like LSU has/hasn't covered at home vs Bama since Saban has been coach and look at the percentages. If the numbers show that the smart bet is for LSU +14.5, they will dump money based on % of confidence.
LSU is rightfully the underdog, but (as previously mentioned) home dogs are usually good bets to cover. This game has some serious considerations based outside of the facts, but Vegas doesn't care, and only wants 50/50 bets so they can take there money off the top and the rest is a wash. I would think the line moves closer to 10 by kickoff, but I'm no sharp.
I think this game can literally go in so many directions that I bet with my heart and not my head, but I think in this case LSU +14.5 in Tiger Stadium at night is a good value.
Sharps come in late and pour money on the game still based on the facts but also the extrinsic factors and history of the game. Things like LSU has/hasn't covered at home vs Bama since Saban has been coach and look at the percentages. If the numbers show that the smart bet is for LSU +14.5, they will dump money based on % of confidence.
LSU is rightfully the underdog, but (as previously mentioned) home dogs are usually good bets to cover. This game has some serious considerations based outside of the facts, but Vegas doesn't care, and only wants 50/50 bets so they can take there money off the top and the rest is a wash. I would think the line moves closer to 10 by kickoff, but I'm no sharp.
I think this game can literally go in so many directions that I bet with my heart and not my head, but I think in this case LSU +14.5 in Tiger Stadium at night is a good value.
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