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re: The Official BCS Thread for October 18th: LSU ranked No. 9
Posted on 10/18/09 at 5:31 pm to los angeles tiger
Posted on 10/18/09 at 5:31 pm to los angeles tiger
quote:
Since you already know this, please give your tickets away to the games.
Think he was making a joke.
0
Posted on 10/18/09 at 5:47 pm to lsumatt
quote:
Yes it is. Iowa would be ahead in the computers (in fact, they might be ahead of undefeated Texas in the computers). And the voters would NOT want to leave out an undefeated BCS school unless there is a compelling case. Cincinnati has the only realistic chance of being left out, and that will likely be because of their computer score.
1-loss LSU would be the only SEC team that could be "close" and even they easily get left out for Iowa.
But it would be an interesting case.
On the one hand, you'd have an undefeated champion of the much-maligned Big Ten. Easy to document that conference's shortcomings in challenging out of conference games in recent past.
On the other hand, you would have a one-loss champion of the currently powerful SEC, and having defeated the team that beat them in the CG rematch.
Naturally, we are all gonna say that LSU should get the nod, but I would be interested to see where the public and the pollsters would stand on this one.
Posted on 10/18/09 at 5:49 pm to lsumatt
quote:
Yes it is. Iowa would be ahead in the computers (in fact, they might be ahead of undefeated Texas in the computers). And the voters would NOT want to leave out an undefeated BCS school unless there is a compelling case.
I disagree. We'll probably never know because I think it's doubtful Iowa even goes undefeated, but the SEC champ would certainly have a compelling argument seeing as though the SEC has won 4 of the last 6 titles and in two of those games, a one or more loss-SEC team beat the Big10 champion in a blowout. Not to mention I disagree with your premise that an undefeated Iowa would be ahead of a one-loss SEC champion in the computers. The extra game against a Top5 opponent would push the SEC team ahead in the computers, without question, and it would all come down to the human polls IMO.
Posted on 10/18/09 at 5:53 pm to Tiger Phil
FWIW, here is the Colley Matrix Computer Poll at the end of the season if there are no upsets except that LSU and Miami make the CGs and win out.
Iowa statistically plays the third toughest schedule in the country.
1 Iowa (12-0) 1.01
2 Texas (13-0) 0.979
3 LSU (12-1) 0.962
4 Miami (12-1) 0.940
5 USC (11-1) 0.938
6 Cincy (12-0) 0.932
7 UF (12-1) 0.912
8 Bama (11-1) 0.906
*LSU isn't even close to Iowa (who is ahead of Texas) and 1-loss Bama/FL are behind even Cincy.
Iowa statistically plays the third toughest schedule in the country.
1 Iowa (12-0) 1.01
2 Texas (13-0) 0.979
3 LSU (12-1) 0.962
4 Miami (12-1) 0.940
5 USC (11-1) 0.938
6 Cincy (12-0) 0.932
7 UF (12-1) 0.912
8 Bama (11-1) 0.906
*LSU isn't even close to Iowa (who is ahead of Texas) and 1-loss Bama/FL are behind even Cincy.
Posted on 10/18/09 at 5:54 pm to JPLSU1981
quote:
Not to mention I disagree with your premise that an undefeated Iowa would be ahead of a one-loss SEC champion in the computers.
I just solved the Colley Matrix for the rest of the season and Iowa is significantly above LSU and waaaaaaaay above UF/Bama
quote:
The extra game against a Top5 opponent would push the SEC team ahead in the computers, without question,
I am sorry, but that is just incorrect. Even if Iowa's OOC opponents just tanked, Iowa should be ahead of all 1-loss SEC teams in the computers. And there is absolutely no precedent to suggest the voters would put a 1-loss BCS team over an undefeated team from a conference like the Big10
This post was edited on 10/18/09 at 5:57 pm
Posted on 10/18/09 at 6:00 pm to lsumatt
Boom goes Matt!
Posted on 10/18/09 at 6:04 pm to lsumatt
quote:
HARRIS POLL - LSU #9
Coaches- LSU #10
BCS standings - LSU #9
Composite computer rank - LSU #7
Posted on 10/18/09 at 6:16 pm to Doc Fenton
I certainly admit that you know way more than I regarding this subject. But there had also never been a precedent for poll voters moving a team down from #2 at the end of the season without them playing a game, such as they did with Michigan in 2006.
Posted on 10/18/09 at 6:20 pm to Tiger Phil
What do you want me to say? It is just bizarre to think an undefeated Big10 team would be ranked below a 1-loss SEC team. Maybe if they played a ridiculously easy schedule - but Iowa's is very tough. And EVEN if they were ranked by the humans below an SEC team, the computers WILL have Iowa higher, boosting them in the BCS.
Some really weird shite would have to happen. I put it at 99% that Iowa finishes above a 1-loss SEC team in the BCS
Some really weird shite would have to happen. I put it at 99% that Iowa finishes above a 1-loss SEC team in the BCS
Posted on 10/18/09 at 6:32 pm to lsumatt
Yeah. It's hard to see how they put a 1 loss team above an undefeated team from a BCS conference. Big 10 might be down but I think they're still considered one of the traditional major conferences.
Posted on 10/18/09 at 7:36 pm to lsumatt
lsumatt :bow: I just have to post "THANK YOU" every time YOU post the BCS info ... yet again, husband and I went to the 2007 NCG due to your insight ... thank you thank you thank you!!!
Posted on 10/18/09 at 7:40 pm to lsumatt
quote:
It is just bizarre to think an undefeated Big10 team would be ranked below a 1-loss SEC team.
I enjoy your BCS commentary LSUMatt, because you're one of the only people besides myself that actually understands and can explain thoroughly how the BCS actually works, but Brad Edwards himself just said that it will get very interesting if there is an undefeated Iowa team vs a 1-loss USC or 1-loss SEC champion. As it should be.
Again, it's not nearly as clear-cut as you're making it, and you know it.
This post was edited on 10/18/09 at 7:42 pm
Posted on 10/18/09 at 7:41 pm to tiger91
quote:
I just have to post "THANK YOU" every time YOU post the BCS info ... yet again, husband and I went to the 2007 NCG due to your insight ... thank you thank you thank you!!!
No problem!
Posted on 10/18/09 at 7:43 pm to JPLSU1981
quote:
but Brad Edwards himself just said that it will get very interesting if there is an undefeated Iowa team vs a 1-loss USC or 1-loss SEC champion. As it should be.
I already showed Iowa should be way ahead in the computers. LSU would be in the only team with any shot (if they avenged their loss against UF) and even then they would need lots of help from the voters. And I don't believe they will give it to them
In the end, Iowa's schedule is waaaay tougher than it looks. I expect the computers and voters to reward them
This post was edited on 10/18/09 at 7:46 pm
Posted on 10/18/09 at 8:07 pm to JPLSU1981
I can't see any 1-loss team jumping an undefeated BCS champion, especially Texas or Iowa. Iowa is already 3rd in the computers and if LSU beats Alabama and Florida they'll be first just like Matt said
Posted on 10/18/09 at 8:12 pm to lsumatt
the problem is that it's not just numbers. the big 10's rep is completely shot right now. it's not unreasonable to speculate that voters would do everything in their power to lock out the big 10. 1 loss texas or usc against the sec champ is so much more glamorous than iowa. it's an interesting discussion
Posted on 10/18/09 at 8:15 pm to lsumatt
First, thanks to LSU Matt for posting this--it's a righteous thread.
There are SO many games to be played, and I just can't envision more than one or even two teams going undefeated after Week 13. I don't know it, can't prove it and won't try.
Also, talk about teams "running the table," esp. for LSU, seems like an unlikely, daunting and even miraculous task. (Seven straight, incl. the SEC Championship?) But, if LSU can get well at home vs. Auburn & Tulane, getting Shepard & other play-makers game experience, JJ getting his confidence (and decision-making) back, the O-Line improves, etc. we're in a much better position than we are right now for the Alabama game.
There are SO many games to be played, and I just can't envision more than one or even two teams going undefeated after Week 13. I don't know it, can't prove it and won't try.
Also, talk about teams "running the table," esp. for LSU, seems like an unlikely, daunting and even miraculous task. (Seven straight, incl. the SEC Championship?) But, if LSU can get well at home vs. Auburn & Tulane, getting Shepard & other play-makers game experience, JJ getting his confidence (and decision-making) back, the O-Line improves, etc. we're in a much better position than we are right now for the Alabama game.
Posted on 10/18/09 at 8:39 pm to johnsec
quote:All good points.Here's to hoping for the best.
johnsec
Posted on 10/18/09 at 8:46 pm to tiger91
quote:
I just have to post "THANK YOU" every time YOU post the BCS info ... yet again, husband and I went to the 2007 NCG due to your insight ... thank you thank you thank you!!!
+1 we did too!
Posted on 10/18/09 at 9:59 pm to los angeles tiger
quote:
Since you already know this, please give your tickets away to the games.
C'mon man. You've been around long enough to know better.
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