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Message
re: The full cost of a coaching reset:
Posted on 10/23/25 at 12:28 pm to Lakeboy7
Posted on 10/23/25 at 12:28 pm to Lakeboy7
quote:
If he gets fired those terms will be null.
Kelly’s contract spells out how he gets paid if we fired him… it’s not due all at once. He gets paid $8.7 per year til 2031 (monthly payments)
Kelly’s buyout has no big lump sum payments or immediate payments.
Buying out Kelly isn’t as hard as it may initially seem. Certainly it’s not ideal to have to piss away $9m a year that could absolutely be used on other things, but it’s actually fairly do-able on an annual basis. We’re already doing it (paying him). The only annual increase would be the new coach annual salary
This post was edited on 10/23/25 at 12:57 pm
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Posted on 10/23/25 at 12:28 pm to Lakeboy7
quote:
Assistants get the full amount owed on the contract at termination.
Yeah I accounted for that. As for the 12.5 day one thing, i hadn't heard of that being in the contract, but if they were serious about firing him they could probably do that
I'm not sure if it happens this year, but I really do think it'll be on the table
Posted on 10/23/25 at 12:34 pm to lsufan0582
LSU will pay assistant coach salaries and NIL anyway. Those don’t factor in at all in the point you’re trying to make.
When football is really good donations to the school go way up. Merchandise sales go way up. More people want to go to LSU. I’ve heard Woodward talk plenty times about how having gameday come to campus or being in playoff games is the equivalent of spending 10 of millions in advertising.
In the grand scheme of things Kelly’s buyout isn’t all that much.
When football is really good donations to the school go way up. Merchandise sales go way up. More people want to go to LSU. I’ve heard Woodward talk plenty times about how having gameday come to campus or being in playoff games is the equivalent of spending 10 of millions in advertising.
In the grand scheme of things Kelly’s buyout isn’t all that much.
This post was edited on 10/23/25 at 12:43 pm
Posted on 10/23/25 at 12:37 pm to lsufan0582
quote:
I'm not sure if it happens this year, but I really do think it'll be on the table
The priority is the roster, and that is the right answer.
LSU was way too late to understand NIL and its impact but in the last year we have gotten better.
PSU and UF are about to hire a new coach under the old model (BKs contract a great example of the old model). As painful as it may be it may be better to wait a year and see if coaching contracts start to reset (some) given the NIL reality.
Posted on 10/23/25 at 12:38 pm to SteveLSU35
Every year we DON’T fire this clown just makes the total cost to the program higher. Saving a few bucks by waiting on the buyout is stupid. If he’s the problem, and I think that’s clear at this point, then you have to take your medicine and move on.
Posted on 10/23/25 at 12:41 pm to lsufan0582
The assistant salaries dont move the needle here. We would owe them 90% of their remaining salary paid over the course of contract term provided that they seek employment at a fair market value. Once they get hired (and they will), their salary offsets what we owe.
The assistant coaches contracts are 2 year contracts. All have an end date of Jan 15 2027 with the exception of the coaches who are in their first season. Those expire Jan 15, 2028. So we dont have long to carry these smaller amounts and some could get retained, some could get washed out with other jobs. So imo these are a non factor.
Another non factor is new roster. That is needed regardless. Just go look at what we lose for next year.
Here are the real numbers to consider:
Orgeron's payments finish in December of this year. We are paying him roughly $342k/month. So in 2 months we have about $4.1m/year that we have been spending freeing up.
Kelly's buyout is also 90% of his remaining salary paid over the course of the regular length of his contract. So for easy math lets just say he makes $10m/year. We would then be paying him $9m/year. You keep him around 1 year longer it doesnt matter. He's making his money regardless.
Take that $1m and add it to the $4.1m we wont be paying O anymore and you're at $5.1m/year less than we have been paying.
So now when you go to the boosters you're not asking for an additional $50m to fund the buyout. You're asking them to help fund the gap between that $5.1m/year and what the coach you're wanting to hire next is going to cost. That is where a fiscally responsible AD will come in to play. Which we don't currently have.
The assistant coaches contracts are 2 year contracts. All have an end date of Jan 15 2027 with the exception of the coaches who are in their first season. Those expire Jan 15, 2028. So we dont have long to carry these smaller amounts and some could get retained, some could get washed out with other jobs. So imo these are a non factor.
Another non factor is new roster. That is needed regardless. Just go look at what we lose for next year.
Here are the real numbers to consider:
Orgeron's payments finish in December of this year. We are paying him roughly $342k/month. So in 2 months we have about $4.1m/year that we have been spending freeing up.
Kelly's buyout is also 90% of his remaining salary paid over the course of the regular length of his contract. So for easy math lets just say he makes $10m/year. We would then be paying him $9m/year. You keep him around 1 year longer it doesnt matter. He's making his money regardless.
Take that $1m and add it to the $4.1m we wont be paying O anymore and you're at $5.1m/year less than we have been paying.
So now when you go to the boosters you're not asking for an additional $50m to fund the buyout. You're asking them to help fund the gap between that $5.1m/year and what the coach you're wanting to hire next is going to cost. That is where a fiscally responsible AD will come in to play. Which we don't currently have.
This post was edited on 10/23/25 at 12:43 pm
Posted on 10/23/25 at 12:44 pm to lsufan0582
quote:
I'm not sure if it happens this year, but I really do think it'll be on the table
I don't know why people dismiss this.
I think dude is gone once he loses game 4 of this year.
$10m a year to a lot of these donors isn't nothing, but it's not the miraculous sum of money that regular folk marvel at to them.
Posted on 10/23/25 at 12:47 pm to Lakeboy7
quote:
Assistants get the full amount owed on the contract at termination.
This is not what the contracts state.
Posted on 10/23/25 at 12:56 pm to SteveLSU35
quote:
Unless Baker becomes the HC..................?
Or the new coach keeps him. O kept Aranda over from the Miles tenure.
Posted on 10/23/25 at 12:58 pm to lsufan0582
I figured out how to do this...
get Kelly to agree to a back-loaded buyout...
Like $1M the next few years, then up it to $5M, $10M, $20M.... until the final year when we have a large $$$ amount due.
Then let inflation take care of the amounts.
Like we're doing with all debt in this country that seems overwhelming until you realize it's just pushed off on your descendants.
get Kelly to agree to a back-loaded buyout...
Like $1M the next few years, then up it to $5M, $10M, $20M.... until the final year when we have a large $$$ amount due.
Then let inflation take care of the amounts.
Like we're doing with all debt in this country that seems overwhelming until you realize it's just pushed off on your descendants.
Posted on 10/23/25 at 1:01 pm to lsufan0582
As they say, it’s cheaper to keep her.
Posted on 10/23/25 at 1:06 pm to TigerAttorney
quote:
Money is better spent on buying talent the next 3-5 years
Is it really? Didn't we just spend a shite ton for a team that will likely lose 3 more games and end up 7-5? Weedeater Bowl here we come!
The best thing would be to save as much money as possible until we can truly afford to dump Kelly, then spend the money when a coach with some fire in his belly comes in here gets LSU back to where it should be.
Posted on 10/23/25 at 1:07 pm to lsufan0582
quote:
New Roster (portal) - Probably around 12 million
This is a wash. LSU is paying these players anyway. LSU would not be adding more players to the ones already being paid.
quote:
This is a 41.3 million dollar project. I don't know if it can be done, but if it's possible it needs to be.
You’re looking at it as if LSU is only paying $8.7M a year, but that’s not how this works. Brian Kelly still has a $43.5million buyout or whatever it is. Spreading it across years doesn’t reduce the cost, it just hides it on paper. LSU still has to come up with that money, and that’s $52M or $8.7M til for 5 years (assuming he’s fired in the offseason) that could have gone toward players, assistants, or facilities instead.
Whether boosters pay it now or over time doesn’t matter—it’s still a $52M commitment. That’s why he isn’t going anywhere as long as he keeps putting up 8–4 type seasons. He could probably even survive a 6–6 year. The buyout protects him
This post was edited on 10/23/25 at 1:15 pm
Posted on 10/23/25 at 1:10 pm to burdman
quote:
Is LSU still paying buyouts for Kelly’s other failed hires? Or have those already been settled?
You think we’re in a. payment plan for the 3 assistant coaches we’ve fired?
Posted on 10/23/25 at 1:12 pm to lsufan0582
quote:
8.7 million a year until 2031.
which in some cases is settled for a smaller lump sum amount like they do for lottery winners. pretty sure O settled for a lump sum
Posted on 10/23/25 at 1:14 pm to lsufan0582
quote:
I can absolutely see a reality where boosters pull the plug on transfers until kelly is gone. 18 million dollars a year on the portal adds up and seeing it wasted like it is, you may as well just try and buy him out. They'd make the money back quickly, having a good football program works wonders for your financials
NIL has changed. It’s no longer a bidding war. All NIL has to go through a clearing house to determine if the $$ amount matches what the “donor” gets out of it.
In other words, don’t look for Mr. Oracle to be ponying up $10M for a single player. He has to show how that QB signing autographs/posing for pictures gets him $10M in business OR said QB can get more than that somewhere else AND show worth.
This post was edited on 10/23/25 at 1:16 pm
Posted on 10/23/25 at 1:16 pm to LSUGent
quote:
In regards to Kelly's buyout, does he not also have the Franklin clause where he has to look for a new job?
Kelly does have a mitigation clause, which means if he gets a coaching or analyst job or commentator on TV, we can subtract that from the contract amount we have to pay out.
Posted on 10/23/25 at 1:17 pm to lsufan0582
Just let Frank Wilson run the O
Posted on 10/23/25 at 1:19 pm to TN Tygah
quote:
The buyout protects him
It doesn't protect the program. Watch revenue and donations drop like a rock and we'll see what the true cost of keeping him actually is.
Posted on 10/23/25 at 1:30 pm to Topwater Trout
quote:
pretty sure O settled for a lump sum
He did not. Our payments to him end this December. That coupled with the LA supreme court ruling in favor of his wife is why you see him telling various media outlets now that he's ready to coach again.
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