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re: Runner on 2nd, no outs, down by 1, top of the 6th, the only correct answer is.....
Posted on 3/29/21 at 7:38 am to mtntiger
Posted on 3/29/21 at 7:38 am to mtntiger
quote:
he correct answer is that late in the game when you have the tying run on 2B with 0 outs, you do whatever you have to do to get his arse over to 3B.
From there, he scores any number of ways - hit, SAC, FC, PB, WP, error.
Or he's a shitty bunter, he bunts and pops it up to the catcher, now he's out, your best bat is now on the bench.
The coaches see these guys in practice every day and know their tendencies.
1
Posted on 3/29/21 at 7:39 am to RemyLeBeau
quote:
Another consideration is once you've moved him to third, the corners will def play in, MIF will be at DP depth. So a hard hit ground ball has the best chance to get through the infield.
You have to have confidence that your next batter can hit the ball like that.
quote:
Arizona beat the Yankees because the runner on third forced the infield in, allowing a blooper to drop justpast where Jeter would normally have been playing.
LOL no one on this team is hitting like they are playing for AZ or NY
Posted on 3/29/21 at 8:10 am to coondaddy21
I called out his refusal to play small ball in order to advance runners to set up runs last year and got blasted on here
Posted on 3/29/21 at 8:27 am to MrWiseGuy
quote:
up-to-date baseball knowledge
Please explain how a runner on third with one out is a bad thing.
Posted on 3/29/21 at 8:30 am to coondaddy21
21 ways to score from third that you can’t from second. Yes percentages say you move the runner .
Posted on 3/29/21 at 8:31 am to LSUFanHouston
quote:
The coaches see these guys in practice every day and know their tendencies.
Yup. And we see them striking out on the reg in key situations. A SO gets us what we've been getting.
If you don't have guys who can reliably advance runners with a bunt, then you aren't doing your job as a coach.
In the situation we're discussing, you advocate for letting your best hitter swing away. Even if he's batting .333, that means he will fail 2 out of 3 times, and more than likely leave the runner exactly where he was.
The goal is to get that runner to 3B, where more pressure is brought to bear on the defense. A hit isn't needed to score him as I pointed out in a previous post.
Someone posted a stat to support your position that was worthless. In a hundred games, you a little more than half a run, but it doesn't say how often it leads to wins.
That stat simply shows more runs are scored (barely), which means it leads to big innings occasionally. It doesn't show which is more reliable.
We didn't need a big inning. We needed a run. It was a 7-inning game. We were in the 6th. In that situation, I'm getting the runner to 3B with a SAC bunt every time.
I know we still got the run in, but the SAC bunt is more reliable IMHO.
Posted on 3/29/21 at 8:32 am to Notnac
quote:
Please explain how a runner on third with one out is a bad thing.
Run expectancy is higher with a runner on second and no outs. So bunting would decrease run expectancy. And this don’t even take into account the hitters involved, which further makes swinging away the better call.
Posted on 3/29/21 at 8:38 am to mtntiger
quote:
We didn't need a big inning. We needed a run. It was a 7-inning game.
We needed one run to tie, we needed multiple runs to take the lead. And with our bullpen, playing to just tie the game would have been a weak, passive (and mathematically incorrect) play.
Posted on 3/29/21 at 8:42 am to MONROE
runner on second no out
if you can't hit him in from there odds are you aren't winning the game
if you can't hit him in from there odds are you aren't winning the game
Posted on 3/29/21 at 8:47 am to coondaddy21
quote:
Bunt!!! It’s almost like PM has never coached before. I don’t care who the frick is up to bat
Playing for the tie is no way to go through life.
Posted on 3/29/21 at 8:48 am to coondaddy21
quote:
Heck, drag bunt him and give him the opportunity to beat it out.
Lol. This is the level of collective baseball knowledge on the rant. Drag bunt Doughty to get a runner to third. Christ.
Posted on 3/29/21 at 8:52 am to UpToPar
quote:
Lol. This is the level of collective baseball knowledge on the rant. Drag bunt Doughty to get a runner to third. Christ.
This.
Our three hole hitter is up, our leading RBI guy, no out, down one and goofballs here want to bunt?
Yes, we have some smart people here. Not.
Posted on 3/29/21 at 9:04 am to doubleb
quote:
goofballs here want to bunt?
Not just bunt. Drag bunt.
Posted on 3/29/21 at 9:54 am to MrWiseGuy
quote:
No. You do not bunt.
Sorry. That is not the right answer. And anybody with any up-to-date baseball knowledge will tell you that.
hysterical that you're being downvoted. Bunting in that situation gives you a *very slight* increase in % chance of scoring at least 1, and a moderate *decrease* in expected runs.
The math is incredibly clear--the optimal decision is not to bunt. Bunting in that situation lowers your win expectancy. It's not even a debate; it's a fact.
This post was edited on 3/29/21 at 9:55 am
Posted on 3/29/21 at 10:23 am to MrWiseGuy
All y’all dumb fuks who say you don’t bunt in that situation obviously don’t know how baseball is played. Bunting in that situation is 100% the correct answer and it’s not up for debate.
Posted on 3/29/21 at 10:31 am to UpToPar
quote:
Not just bunt. Drag bunt.
And you know that Doughty is a good drag bunter?
Having your best rbi guy try and leg out a bunt single down 1 deep in the game on the road in a game where there’s been a lot of scoring is unorthodox.
You need 2 to win minimum and that’s if Tennessee fails to score more runs which they eventually did. In that situation you play for a big inning not for one run or to have your slugger try something he has not done yet.
Posted on 3/29/21 at 10:35 am to MrWiseGuy
Agreed. You don’t give up an out with no outs and Runner at 2nd. The op thinks you give up an out to move to 3rd from 2nd when your runner is already in scoring position?
I agree with you. This NOT a bunt situation.
I agree with you. This NOT a bunt situation.
Posted on 3/29/21 at 10:37 am to Double Oh
I suggest you read Smart Baseball by Keith Law
You will be enlightened. There has been a huge paradigm shift in baseball.
I'm an old school guy, but if you want to keep up with where the game is going, you will need to educate yourself
Granted, all of the statistics used for analysis come from every MLB game ever played, not the college or lower levels, but you will get the drift regardless
You will be enlightened. There has been a huge paradigm shift in baseball.
I'm an old school guy, but if you want to keep up with where the game is going, you will need to educate yourself
Granted, all of the statistics used for analysis come from every MLB game ever played, not the college or lower levels, but you will get the drift regardless
Posted on 3/29/21 at 10:40 am to The Seaward
quote:True, but you are failing to look into the analytics
Run expectancy is higher with a runner on second and no outs
Total run expectancy is higher swinging away, HOWEVER, bunting leads to scoring at least one run at a higher percentage than not bunting
Posted on 3/29/21 at 10:48 am to lsupride87
These percentages and expectancies that are used are based on MLB numbers
Granted, you may not be able to apply the defensive skills of college players to the pros, but there are few pro teams striking out at the rate this team is
Also, on the road especially, you can't play for the tie and give up your best batter in the 6th inning. Our relief pitchers can give up runs without giving up a hit.
Granted, you may not be able to apply the defensive skills of college players to the pros, but there are few pro teams striking out at the rate this team is
Also, on the road especially, you can't play for the tie and give up your best batter in the 6th inning. Our relief pitchers can give up runs without giving up a hit.
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