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re: Runner on 2nd, no outs, down by 1, top of the 6th, the only correct answer is.....
Posted on 3/29/21 at 11:04 am to lsupride87
Posted on 3/29/21 at 11:04 am to lsupride87
quote:
Total run expectancy is higher swinging away, HOWEVER, bunting leads to scoring at least one run at a higher percentage than not buntin
Yes, scoring one run is slightly more likely assuming you execute the bunt and assuming average hitters. In this situation, the hitter at the plate has a 1.150 OPS and the on deck hitter has a .300 OPS. Plus to win the game, multiple runs were needed. It’s a clear swing away situation.
This post was edited on 3/29/21 at 11:08 am
0
Posted on 3/29/21 at 11:27 am to UpToPar
quote:
Lol. This is the level of collective baseball knowledge on the rant. Drag bunt Doughty to get a runner to third. Christ.
I played college baseball, was a 4 year starter, and whenever the situation called for me to bunt, I would always drag bunt because I could conceal the fact that I was bunting until the very last second and I had the opportunity to beat out the play and advance the runner. My argument with the drag bunt was when others were saying that you’re automatically giving them the out and a drag bunt is no different than attempting to swing the bat for a base hit. You’re attempting to place the ball in a position to leg out a base hit and you advance the runner at the same time. College hitters should all be able to bunt and drag bunt. If they can’t, it’s on the coaches to prepare every player to try to succeed when the opportunity arises.
This post was edited on 3/29/21 at 11:34 am
Posted on 3/29/21 at 11:30 am to wahoocs
What's funny is through 6 games, LSU actually leads the SEC in sacrifice hits with 5! Yet we've scored the 4th-fewest runs and are 6 runs behind league-average.
Though LSU hasn't had any sacrifice flies yet so maybe that's the issue. But Ole Miss and Tennessee have scored the most runs in league play and they have 5 sacrifice hits/flies combined.
I feel like a lot of people learned everything they know about baseball 30-40 years ago and have never once updated their thinking. Though it doesn't help when the announcers are the exact same way.
Though LSU hasn't had any sacrifice flies yet so maybe that's the issue. But Ole Miss and Tennessee have scored the most runs in league play and they have 5 sacrifice hits/flies combined.
I feel like a lot of people learned everything they know about baseball 30-40 years ago and have never once updated their thinking. Though it doesn't help when the announcers are the exact same way.
Posted on 3/29/21 at 5:24 pm to wahoocs
Don’t need to read Smart Baseball. You bunt in that situation every time.
Posted on 3/29/21 at 5:44 pm to Double Oh
You’re gonna lose more than you win that way
Good luck w ur flip phone and VCR
Good luck w ur flip phone and VCR
Posted on 3/29/21 at 5:54 pm to coondaddy21
quote:
Runner on 2nd, no outs, down by 1
quote:Wrong. A base hit scores a runner on second almost as often as it does if a runner is on third.
he only correct answer is.....
Bunt!!!
It's stupid to give up an out just to advance the runner to third from second with a bunt.
The only advantage of having the runner on third instead of second is if there is a sac fly, wild pitch or passed ball.
And if the runner is on second, a wild pitch or passed ball gets him to third base anyway without giving up an out.
Posted on 3/29/21 at 5:56 pm to LSURussian
quote:that’s three advantages. And you’re missing the fielders choice. Or bringing in the infield in which case it makes a groundball hit easier. So it’s not ONE advantage. Liar!!!!1!
The only advantage of having the runner on third instead of second is if there is a sac fly, wild pitch or passed ball.
ETA: but in all seriousness, you don’t bunt if you are playing for the most runs. But you do bunt if you are playing for one run. The metrics show the the odds of scoring at least one run with a runner on 3B with 1 out is greater than 2B with no outs. Although the run total for the inning is greater with the runner on second.
This post was edited on 3/29/21 at 5:58 pm
Posted on 3/29/21 at 6:02 pm to ell_13
66% vs 61.4%
This post was edited on 3/29/21 at 6:03 pm
Posted on 3/29/21 at 6:23 pm to ell_13
Yes, playing for the 1 run, bunting a runner over from 2nd w no outs, is the only time there is an advantage
But playing for a tie in the 6th inning w your best hitter up on this strikeout prone team that’s relief pitching walks and hits runs in is a losing proposition, especially on the road
Nobody should take issue with that decision from an analytical standpoint
Some people hit 16 at 3rd base, some don’t, and they will swear either way
But playing for a tie in the 6th inning w your best hitter up on this strikeout prone team that’s relief pitching walks and hits runs in is a losing proposition, especially on the road
Nobody should take issue with that decision from an analytical standpoint
Some people hit 16 at 3rd base, some don’t, and they will swear either way
Posted on 3/29/21 at 6:28 pm to wahoocs
quote:It was a 7 inning game. So in effect the 8th. I’m pretty sure we scored a run anyway. I’m just pointing out the analytics which says you should. And Doughty struck out. If he bunts, you scored on a sac fly from Safford. Then Beloso doesn’t get intensionally walked. Who knows what happens then.
But playing for a tie in the 6th inning w your best hitter up on this strikeout prone team that’s relief pitching walks and hits runs in is a losing proposition, especially on the road
This post was edited on 3/29/21 at 6:30 pm
Posted on 3/29/21 at 6:34 pm to ell_13
Good point on it being a 7 inning game, so I can see the argument there being a little more relevant
But over the course of a season, LSU isn’t winning more games bunting in those situations
But over the course of a season, LSU isn’t winning more games bunting in those situations
Posted on 3/29/21 at 6:37 pm to wahoocs
quote:Season is half over already. No it may not come up often and it depends on where you are in the lineup too. I let Doughty hit too because of who comes up behind him. But if this was the bottom of the lineup, you have to bunt. It’s situational and certainly not a bad thing to do at all times as Russian seems to believe.
But over the course of a season, LSU isn’t winning more games bunting in those situations
This post was edited on 3/29/21 at 6:38 pm
Posted on 3/29/21 at 6:45 pm to ell_13
No, you’re right that it is the only sac bunt worth it over time to score ONE run
Posted on 3/29/21 at 7:38 pm to wahoocs
strike three is the correct answer
Posted on 3/29/21 at 9:08 pm to LSUFanHouston
quote:
LOL no one on this team is hitting like they are playing for AZ or NY
I believe his point was with a runner in scoring position thee defensive adjustments allowed a rather routine out become a game winning blooper
Posted on 3/29/21 at 9:45 pm to coondaddy21
quote:
Bunt!!!
Would you ask KL to bunt???
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