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Pending home sales fall to the lowest level in 26 years
Posted on 10/22/26 at 8:26 am
Posted on 10/22/26 at 8:26 am
Also, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported a purchase index of 129.2. Near the lowest ever
No one is buying but sellers have not accepted that perhaps their house is worth less since interest rates are no longer in the 2s and 3s.
A completely frozen market.
Posted on 10/22/26 at 8:28 am to stout
The fact prices aren't falling more is insane
I know a lot of this market was propped up by the psychology that rates being increased was only temporary, but it's been like 3 years and they still haven't accepted the fact that they're not coming down anytime soon
I know a lot of this market was propped up by the psychology that rates being increased was only temporary, but it's been like 3 years and they still haven't accepted the fact that they're not coming down anytime soon
Posted on 10/22/26 at 8:33 am to SlowFlowPro
"Real estate always goes up" has been ingrained into our thinking for decades because, outside of a very few times in history, it has been true.
Posted on 10/22/26 at 8:36 am to stout
2% rates gets a lot of people to sit the frick down
Posted on 10/22/26 at 8:37 am to stout
Supply and demand will eventually cause a fall in prices. If people are selling a house for $400k and it sits on the market for 180 days, the seller will eventually lower their price.
Another factor that might also lower prices is the number of deportations. A million people leaving the US, even if they didn't own homes and lived in apartments, creates elasticity in the overall housing market. When rent prices drop, home prices usually follow.
Another factor that might also lower prices is the number of deportations. A million people leaving the US, even if they didn't own homes and lived in apartments, creates elasticity in the overall housing market. When rent prices drop, home prices usually follow.
Posted on 10/22/26 at 8:37 am to jmarto1
quote:
2% rates gets a lot of people to sit the frick down
Yes, but that is a simplistic take considering there are tons of homes for sale. Just no buyers
In fact, we have the largest gap of buyers vs sellers in history
Posted on 10/22/26 at 8:37 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:Sounds like buyers will eventually have to realize they don’t control the price. The sellers do. People will eventually get tired of waiting and either keep renting or bite the bullet and buy. Had a few friends who let their houses sit for 3+ months in the last year. Each buyer tried to get them to drop the price 20-30k each time and they said no. Each instance an old buyer came back later and decided to pay what they were asking after shopping more.
I know a lot of this market was propped up by the psychology that rates being increased was only temporary, but it's been like 3 years and they still haven't accepted the fact that they're not coming down anytime soon
Unless you’re in a pinch and need to sell your house ASAP, if it sits long enough someone will buy
This post was edited on 10/22/26 at 8:40 am
Posted on 10/22/26 at 8:39 am to ClientNumber9
quote:
If people are selling a house for $400k and it sits on the market for 180 days, the seller will eventually lower their price.
Some will. Some can not because they don't have the equity to do so. The latter is the reason experts are predicting that foreclosure rates will fall back to 2014-15 levels.
Posted on 10/22/26 at 8:39 am to stout
quote:And "Boomers".
"Real estate always goes up" has been ingrained into our thinking for decades because, outside of a very few times in history, it has been true.
Yes, your home "was worth" $600k a couple of years ago.
But you built it for $60k in 1995.
A home is only worth what someone is willing to pay (and at a mortgage and interest rate they can afford).
Posted on 10/22/26 at 8:43 am to jmarto1
quote:You've gotta think this is severely hampering the US economy, too. How much of our human capital is tied down to a single geography because of a mortgage rate? In other words, would we have significantly more people doing significantly better/more fulfilling work if they were able to move freely?
2% rates gets a lot of people to sit the frick down
Posted on 10/22/26 at 8:45 am to stout
Under contract right now ….. but inspections aren’t looking good
Posted on 10/22/26 at 8:46 am to TideCPA
quote:
How much of our human capital is tied down to a single geography because of a mortgage rate? In other words, would we have significantly more people doing significantly better/more fulfilling work if they were able to move freely?
be a whole lot better if telework policies were re-instituted across the board
Posted on 10/22/26 at 8:47 am to stout
Developers continuing to build new neighborhoods with 1,500 homes and agreeing to buy down points isn't helping, either.
Sellers can't compete with that.
Sellers can't compete with that.
Posted on 10/22/26 at 8:48 am to stout
Another issue, is that people with 4-5% rates that bought homes in the teens, then put Helocs on their inflated equities during the Covid boom, are stuck with trying to sell their homes at those higher prices because if they did not they would be netting nearly zero or even paying out of pocket at closing.
Posted on 10/22/26 at 8:50 am to stout
quote:
2% rates gets a lot of people to sit the frick down
Yes, but that is a simplistic take considering there are tons of homes for sale. Just no buyers
In fact, we have the largest gap of buyers vs sellers in history
Because people don't want to sell their current homes with low rates and take on a much larger rate. I bet a vast majority of homes for sale don't have mortgage rates in the 3% range or lower than 4-5%.
It eliminates a big portion of a potential buyer pool.
ETA:
I fall squarely into this. We'd love to buy a different home with more land. Our house has appreciated a ton and we are in a better spot financially than when bought our current home (although it's just fine). We aren't even considering it now because we are at a 3% interest rate.
I'm not buying more home AND taking on a 7-7.5% rate. My mortgage would triple or more.
We are always looking at new houses and land online for fun, but it just doesn't make sense. Tons of things for sale, but it's financially stupid to move right now.
This post was edited on 10/22/26 at 9:02 am
Posted on 10/22/26 at 8:52 am to stout
Real estate value exploded several years ago and has only kept going up since. People’s wages haven’t kept up, and now interest rates are significantly higher. If you asked me a few years ago “would we have inflation back to the target of ~2% by end of ‘26” I’d have said almost certainly. A lot of sellers probably have thought the same thing - that rates would be coming back down by now. Moderately high inflation has pestered though, and because it has pestered, people expect it to continue to pester with no end in sight which supports further inflation.
If the math doesn’t work for either side, inventory won’t move. It’s not life or death though, just not ideal. Hopefully we eventually get that “soft landing” and things return to some sense of normal.
If the math doesn’t work for either side, inventory won’t move. It’s not life or death though, just not ideal. Hopefully we eventually get that “soft landing” and things return to some sense of normal.
Posted on 10/22/26 at 8:52 am to stout
So excited that I'll be selling my house this spring.
Perfect timing.
Perfect timing.
Posted on 10/22/26 at 8:53 am to Mahootney
I'm not looking to move thank god but if I were there's no way I'd ever be able to financially swing going from a 3% rate to a 7.5% rate. That alone would keep me in my current house no matter what.
Posted on 10/22/26 at 8:53 am to stout
Yeah the market is a bit of a mess right now, especially for people that bought around 2023 where rates jumped but prices hadn't fallen at the time. Any equity in their house is all but gone so it's hard for them to sell at a price that's much lower than what they paid.
I should know I'm one of those buyers, and I watch the value of my home and those around fairly closely. Based on my market, if I tried to sell right now, I'd basically break even. Now my housing market is really weird in Temple, TX. a fair percentage of home buyers are either military members stationed at Fort Hood or doctoral resident at Baylor Scott and White, meaning there is always a large rotation of people trying to sell homes. Meanwhile the local homebuilders are still popping up new neighborhoods and offering better rates than already built homes.
I should know I'm one of those buyers, and I watch the value of my home and those around fairly closely. Based on my market, if I tried to sell right now, I'd basically break even. Now my housing market is really weird in Temple, TX. a fair percentage of home buyers are either military members stationed at Fort Hood or doctoral resident at Baylor Scott and White, meaning there is always a large rotation of people trying to sell homes. Meanwhile the local homebuilders are still popping up new neighborhoods and offering better rates than already built homes.
Posted on 10/22/26 at 8:54 am to stout
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