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re: Jay Johnson on the pitching plan
Posted on 6/14/23 at 8:36 am to deathvalleytiger10
Posted on 6/14/23 at 8:36 am to deathvalleytiger10
You’re a loss away after you lose ANY game. Not sure why you’re so fixated on the first one.
3
Posted on 6/14/23 at 8:55 am to ell_13
Very Simple. Champions win game 1 just about every time.
This post was edited on 6/14/23 at 10:19 am
Posted on 6/14/23 at 8:58 am to Templars
quote:
the goal isn't to beat Tennessee - it's to win the CWS. Winning the first 2 games is everything.
I mean you are trying to be deep and all, but you can't win the first two without winning the 1st one.
Skenes will pitch GM1.
The 'committee' pitching model happens when you don't have the pitching to win traditionally. They may need to go this route eventually (esp if they end up in the losers bracket) but this is not how they want to win games.
With the way the bullpen is pitching (and Hurd's ability to start games and pitch well recently) they ideally want to set it up in a way where the starter pitches deeper into the game and the guys pitching well in the bullpen take over.
Posted on 6/14/23 at 9:21 am to ell_13
The guys that think they are 100% sure are too sure of themselves. Maybe Jay waits to decide.
Wake plays before we do. What if Wake holds Lowder for game2? Does that cause Jay to change his mind? This is tricky because the starter usually knows they are starting sooner than a few hours before the game, but maybe Jay waits to have all input into the call.
Floyd struggled with his grip against Tenn. in regular season. What if we see same weather conditions as then?
My guess is he more than likely that sticks to the rotation we just saw. Wake looks stronger than Tenn. but Tenn is certainly good enough to beat us.
Wake plays before we do. What if Wake holds Lowder for game2? Does that cause Jay to change his mind? This is tricky because the starter usually knows they are starting sooner than a few hours before the game, but maybe Jay waits to have all input into the call.
Floyd struggled with his grip against Tenn. in regular season. What if we see same weather conditions as then?
My guess is he more than likely that sticks to the rotation we just saw. Wake looks stronger than Tenn. but Tenn is certainly good enough to beat us.
Posted on 6/14/23 at 11:49 am to Honkus
quote:
We are holding skenes back for WF. Heard it here first!
Couldn't Skenes pitch on 4 days rest? Pitch the first game, then pitch on the back end of bracket play if they get there and then pitch in game 2 or 3 in the finals?
Posted on 6/14/23 at 11:54 am to deathvalleytiger10
quote:They win the first two nearly every time.
Champions win game 1 just about every time.
Posted on 6/14/23 at 12:45 pm to ell_13
quote:
Champions win game 1 just about every time.They win the first two nearly every time.
It’s mind blowing how many people aren’t getting that game 1 and 2 are equal in terms of importance.
Posted on 6/14/23 at 12:54 pm to ell_13
Did the math on CWS since the move to Charles Schwab:
11 years (no CWS in 2020)
44 teams started 1-0
22 teams started 2-0
16 of those 22 teams made the finals
9 of 11 Champs started 2-0
Outliers are 2016 when both Coastal and Arizona started 1-1 and made the finals and 2018 when Oregon St. started 0-1.
So one champ has started 0-1. One champ has started 1-1. The takeaway here is that 1-0 isn’t important on its own. The key is starting 2-0. Losing EITHER game one or two in any order equally lessons your chance of winning it all.
11 years (no CWS in 2020)
44 teams started 1-0
22 teams started 2-0
16 of those 22 teams made the finals
9 of 11 Champs started 2-0
Outliers are 2016 when both Coastal and Arizona started 1-1 and made the finals and 2018 when Oregon St. started 0-1.
So one champ has started 0-1. One champ has started 1-1. The takeaway here is that 1-0 isn’t important on its own. The key is starting 2-0. Losing EITHER game one or two in any order equally lessons your chance of winning it all.
Posted on 6/14/23 at 12:56 pm to ell_13
Psychologically, winning game one staves off both the desperation in your team and playing against a desperate team on the other side for a few days.
I don't know how to quantify the impact of that, but I'm guessing the impact is more than zero.
I don't know how to quantify the impact of that, but I'm guessing the impact is more than zero.
Posted on 6/14/23 at 12:57 pm to ell_13
quote:
You’re a loss away after you lose ANY game. Not sure why you’re so fixated on the first one.
Also, if we lose, we will face an easier game game 2 while TN will probably throw whatever it has against Wake and vice versa. So the 2nd game vs TN or Wake may be easier vs if you win game 1 and lose to Wake.
I think I’d take the risk and save Skenes for game 2. Keep in mind, I think this makes us an underdog vs. TN.
Posted on 6/14/23 at 12:59 pm to ell_13
LSU fans have gone from we don’t have anyone that can pitch but Skenes to LSU can 100 percent beat Tennessee without Skenes in like two weeks. What a turnaround.
Posted on 6/14/23 at 1:01 pm to ProjectP2294
There are a couple notes I could add NC state started 2-0 in 2021 and got fricked because of a Covid outbreak. They never got another chance vs Vandy. 4 of the other five 1-1 teams to make the finals did start 1-0. So there’s a difference there for sure but we can probably account that to the generality that “worse” teams typically start 0-1.
Posted on 6/14/23 at 1:01 pm to moneyg
Legit question for the rant. If Jay Johnson decides to not pitch Skenes what percentage of people that are currently saying that is what they want would turn on him if LSU were to lose the game?
Posted on 6/14/23 at 1:02 pm to geauxtigers33
quote:Literally no one is making this argument.
LSU can 100 percent beat Tennessee without Skenes
Posted on 6/14/23 at 1:02 pm to geauxtigers33
It is pretty funny, but it also shows how much a lot of the fan base is afraid of Wake yet will argue why LSU is the far superior team
Posted on 6/14/23 at 1:03 pm to geauxtigers33
I still stand behind Paul starting Poche in game 1 in 2015.
Posted on 6/14/23 at 1:03 pm to Weekend Warrior79
quote:Also something no one has argued.
the fan base is afraid of Wake yet will argue why LSU is the far superior team
Posted on 6/14/23 at 1:05 pm to Weekend Warrior79
My main argument against trying to play around with the pitching staff is that every team we will play is really fricking good. That leaves no choice but to give yourself the best chance to win that day and not worry as much about maximizing your chances of winning tomorrow with your pre-game decisions today.
Posted on 6/14/23 at 1:07 pm to ell_13
I get the arguments for holding Skenes I truly do. I just don’t agree with them. I’m throwing my best guy in game one and throwing whoever I have to to win that game then worrying about game 2 after that.
Is LSU not in a similar situation in 2017? They had Florida State in game one then the consensus number one team in the country. They pitched Lange and Poche in game one to get that win. Florida State was a host that season but I would say Tennessee’s talent is very similar to that team.
Is LSU not in a similar situation in 2017? They had Florida State in game one then the consensus number one team in the country. They pitched Lange and Poche in game one to get that win. Florida State was a host that season but I would say Tennessee’s talent is very similar to that team.
Posted on 6/14/23 at 1:08 pm to ell_13
quote:
The takeaway here is that 1-0 isn’t important on its own. The key is starting 2-0.
I might be going out on a limb here, but we can't go 2-0 without going 1-0. That means that going 1-0 is even more important because it's required to reach 2-0. Therefore, you do what you can to ensure 1-0.
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