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re: Jay Johnson always pitches his ace in game 1 of a regional

Posted on 5/29/24 at 11:45 am to
Posted by jmaclsu
Amite, Louisiana
Member since Dec 2007
923 posts
Posted on 5/29/24 at 11:45 am to
Exactly.

You win game 1 & 2 and then you are guaranteed of your 3 vs their 4.
Posted by tigerpawl
Can't get there from here.
Member since Dec 2003
22628 posts
Posted on 5/29/24 at 11:46 am to
You don’t want to play the rest of the tournament with a lump of coal in your equipment bag…
Posted by lostinbr
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Oct 2017
12587 posts
Posted on 5/29/24 at 11:47 am to
quote:

If you lose, you obviously pitch off vs. the #4 and then go to war needing to win 3 in a row still having your top 2 aces.

Do you, though? I realize it’s a 4-seed but can you imagine the melt if we got eliminated throwing our midweek staff without even putting Jump or Holman on the mound?
Posted by Game2620
Canada
Member since Dec 2013
1457 posts
Posted on 5/29/24 at 11:51 am to
quote:

, I would save Jump and Holman and pitch Hurd.


If Hurd had lived up to pre season hype absolutely this is the way.

He didn’t. Gotta get the W in game 1. It’ll be Jump
Posted by moneyg
Member since Jun 2006
61780 posts
Posted on 5/29/24 at 12:09 pm to
quote:

you’re 0-1 after a bullpen game, you aren’t going to hold Jump/Holman back again in the 2 losers’ bracket games. Which means you’ll need to beat UNC twice with a depleted bullpen.. at a pitching disadvantage.


You’d definitely hold those guys against the 4 seed. You don’t pitch off in game time without the intent of saving those guys.
Posted by moneyg
Member since Jun 2006
61780 posts
Posted on 5/29/24 at 12:13 pm to
quote:

You win game 1 & 2 and then you are guaranteed of your 3 vs their 4.


Not if they pitch off vs. the #4
Posted by Lucado
Member since Nov 2023
3497 posts
Posted on 5/29/24 at 12:15 pm to
quote:

I would save Jump and Holman and pitch Hurd.


Posted by moneyg
Member since Jun 2006
61780 posts
Posted on 5/29/24 at 12:16 pm to
quote:

Do you, though?


Yes

quote:

I realize it’s a 4-seed but can you imagine the melt if we got eliminated throwing our midweek staff without even putting Jump or Holman on the mound?


That’s emotional thinking. Of course there will be a ton of criticism. We’ve got a ton of idiots in our fan base. But the logical people will recognize that if the rest of the staff couldn’t beat the 3 or the 4, you weren’t going to beat UNC with that staff.
Posted by chalmetteowl
Chalmette
Member since Jan 2008
53528 posts
Posted on 5/29/24 at 12:16 pm to
quote:

In the 5 years that he made it to the NCAA tournament at Arizona and LSU, he has always pitched his ace in game 1.


Just wait till we host again and it’s a SWAC team anyone on the staff can beat
Posted by SoloTiger
Member since Aug 2016
10647 posts
Posted on 5/29/24 at 12:20 pm to
To me the decision is whether to start Jump or Holman. I will be surprised if anyone else starts vs Wofford.

I could see Holman and Jump being slotted based on which pitcher matches up best with each batting line up (Wofford vs UNC).
Posted by purplepylon
NOLA & Laffy
Member since Nov 2005
8237 posts
Posted on 5/29/24 at 12:36 pm to
I hope we'd have been the 3 seed and Wofford the 2 so we'd be at bat first. We score 10 runs in the Top of the 1st and then tell Jump you get today off. Then throw the midweek guys out there to get through Friday.
But that's my perfect albeit unrealistic scenario.

In reality, throw either Jump or Holman. Whoever fits UNC's lineup better you save for UNS and pitch the other vs Wofford
Posted by Alt26
Member since Mar 2010
33943 posts
Posted on 5/29/24 at 12:39 pm to
This is largely a ridiculous debate mostly because we are looking for something to discuss before Friday. All you need to know is this:

Jump has started every game 1, including in the SEC Tournament, starting with the Tennessee series

Johnson, and everyone else, will tell you they feel LSU has played their best ball since that UT sweep.

But for the fielding/bullpen meltdown vs. Alabama, LSU would have won every game Jump started since the Tenn. series.

Now, as LSU enters the playoffs, Johnson is not going to suddenly change what has been working...even though the Rant has crunched the numbers and is certain this LSU behemoth (who wasn't even sure they were going to make the NCAA Tournament a week ago) can sleepwalk through Wofford.

The only way Jump doesn't pitch Friday (barring injury) is if Johnson decides Holman is a MUCH better matchup vs. Wofford. And even that seems like a very remote possibility. At this point, 61 games into the season, the lineups are set with the one exception being center field that might be subject to change
Posted by moneyg
Member since Jun 2006
61780 posts
Posted on 5/29/24 at 12:45 pm to
I agree that’s what Johnson will do.

I don’t agree that it’s the best strategy.
Posted by DrEdgeLSU
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Dec 2006
8623 posts
Posted on 5/29/24 at 12:49 pm to
quote:

I'm also not scared of being 1-1 if we still have Jump or Holman


There is a major difference between needing to win 3 of 4 games and having to win 4 of 5 games to advance.

In the first scenario you need to go 1-1 on Sunday and Monday without your top 2 starters.

In the second scenario you need to go 2-1 on Sunday and Monday. That's a lot to ask across 2 days.
Posted by Pelican fan99
Lafayette, Louisiana
Member since Jun 2013
38841 posts
Posted on 5/29/24 at 12:53 pm to
Really dumb if you’re a top level team but this year LSU doesn’t have any room to be taking anyone lightly
Posted by Alt26
Member since Mar 2010
33943 posts
Posted on 5/29/24 at 1:07 pm to
quote:

That’s emotional thinking. Of course there will be a ton of criticism. We’ve got a ton of idiots in our fan base. But the logical people will recognize that if the rest of the staff couldn’t beat the 3 or the 4, you weren’t going to beat UNC with that staff.


Forget the fans.

Justify to your team whose season just ended why they are going home with you, as the manager, choosing to forego throwing the two best pitchers on the team.

This whole argument is premised on the assumption LSU can easily roll over Wofford despite the fact that: (1) It's not uncommon for 3 seeds to beat 2 seeds. In fact, 10 of the 16 3 seeds WON the matchup in the 2022 tournament; (2) over the course of 56 games it was still very much up in the air if LSU was even good enough to make the NCAA Tournament.

Now they are suddenly good enough to a reasonable degree of certainty to beat a solid team solely with an, at best, inconsistent bullpen?

Posted by TigerCub
Team Boxtard
Member since May 2006
22226 posts
Posted on 5/29/24 at 1:11 pm to
quote:

But is that better or worse than being 1-1 and having burned them both?


If we're being honest, if we lose either of their starts we're probably not going to win the regional anyway.
Posted by TigerCub
Team Boxtard
Member since May 2006
22226 posts
Posted on 5/29/24 at 1:14 pm to
quote:

You’d definitely hold those guys against the 4 seed. You don’t pitch off in game time without the intent of saving those guys.


So you take a chance of neither Jump or Holman pitching in the regional? If Jay did that (and he won't) he'd deserve every bit of criticism he got.
Posted by alwaysknow
baton rouge
Member since May 2007
351 posts
Posted on 5/29/24 at 1:20 pm to
quote:

Yeah we're not good enough to frick around game 1 of the regional.


Even if we were, JJ would pitch his ace. He continues to win that way.
Posted by DRock88
Member since Aug 2015
10246 posts
Posted on 5/29/24 at 1:23 pm to
quote:

if we lose either of their starts we're probably not going to win the regional anyway.


Agreed.
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