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re: Is it possible for a 3-loss team Playoffs?

Posted on 9/30/26 at 12:17 pm to
Posted by WaterLink
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2015
21018 posts
Posted on 9/30/26 at 12:17 pm to
quote:

Bama got in with a SEC championship game loss that wasn't close


Correct. They had a 10-2 regular season and they were ranked 9th in the CFP going into that game. The CFP made it a point to not punish CCG losers to protect the integrity of CCGs. If you were in the CFP before your CCG, then losing it is not going to drop you out. So Bama was going to remain in no matter what at that point. Whether or not people agree with that sentiment is another thing but that's how it's going to operate, otherwise conferences may do away with CCGs altogether if it ends up costing their teams spots. Networks would stand to lose money if CCGs went away, and conferences stand to lose money if losing the CCG results in having fewer teams making the playoffs, so this was the compromise that was made.

That isn't the same as going 9-3 in the regular season which is the conversation we're having.
Posted by GeauxTigers1410
Member since Sep 2020
2102 posts
Posted on 9/30/26 at 12:19 pm to
I don’t see it.
Maybe Ohio St this year if their losses are to Texas, Indiana, and Oregon with all 3 making the playoffs
Posted by DeathValley85
Member since May 2011
19498 posts
Posted on 9/30/26 at 12:20 pm to
Depends on how long the committee keeps valuing wins over Centenary vs close losses to top teams
Posted by Tiger Ugly
Baton Rouge
Member since Jul 2008
19328 posts
Posted on 9/30/26 at 12:22 pm to
Absolutely, they seem to move the goal posts every year, I expect SOS to become increasingly important and that it will reward tough scheduling more and more each year, as it should have all along.

Whatever happened last year with two outliers getting in did not help in that regard and steps need to be put in if they already have not for that never to happen again. One is bad enough can't have another year with both a Tulane and a JMU in there. That was idiotic.
Posted by FireGoodell
Member since Mar 2019
9319 posts
Posted on 9/30/26 at 12:23 pm to
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They already announced this last week. They are considering strength of conference in its selection process.

So yes it’s possible to get in at 9-3 in the SEC.
Posted by 818 Tiger
Member since May 2026
159 posts
Posted on 9/30/26 at 12:27 pm to
Definitely possible, but there will be tons of teams nationally with 3 losses, and there are already going to be probably 5 SEC teams in the playoffs. LSU probably doesn’t get there with 3 losses.

Also, it turns out Ole Miss is bad, A&M is worse, and Clemson is a high school team. It wouldn’t surprise me if we lost 3 or 4 more games at all.
Posted by Hot Carl
Prayers up for 3
Member since Dec 2005
63295 posts
Posted on 9/30/26 at 12:43 pm to
quote:

It’s inevitable at some point. A 9-3 team with all good losses and enough good wins will eventually make a strong enough case.


That’s gonna be our issue if we finish 9-3. If we have good wins, that means we’ll have to have some “bad losses” to finish 9-3. Beating Bama and Texas back to back weeks would be incredible resume builders (even if both were at home). But that means we lose 2 out of 4 to Kentucky, Auburn, or Tennessee on the road or State at home. Now, none of those losses individually is necessarily “bad.” But 2 of them, combined with the Ole Miss loss, is going to look “bad.” Even if those teams are good, all their records won’t be.

Mathematically impossible. We already cannibalized ourselves BEFORE adding the dumb fricking 9th game. Everybody in that scenario we lose to could be really good football teams—better than 15 of the B1G’s 18 teams—and still finish 8-4 or 7-5. Sankey fricked us. We need every team we play to win every game they play against teams we don’t play. Ole Miss already fricked us against Florida.

I’ve been following college football religiously for 40 years. And every iteration of naming a champion or choosing playoff teams (AP/Coaches Poll, BCS—which heavily factored in polls—4 team playoff, 12 team playoff) has always used number of losses as the 1st factor to eliminate teams. Losses have mattered much more than wins.

I don’t think injuries should be a factor at all. You did what you did. Florida State could have lost their entire starting 22 a couple of years ago, and STILL should have made the 4-team playoff at 13-0. They got royally fricked. HOWEVER, since they did set that precedent of accounting for injuries to hurt a team, they should be willing to do the reverse and consider it to help a team.

That’s why Lane keeps bringing up our injuries and the 9-game schedule every chance he gets lately. He’s not trying to temper fan expectations, he’s talking to the CFBP committee. He wants them to take all our injuries into account, but logically, if they’re trying to get the “best” teams in the playoffs at the time of the selection, it really only matters how good we are at the end of the season. So if we are to lose 2 more games, it would probably be better to lose them in October. And on the road. So that means losing to Kentucky and Auburn, and then finishing the season on a 4-game heater with wins over Bama, Texas, and at Tennessee and Arkansas and WITH the addition of Trey’Dez Green. The only problem with that, though, is it’s highly unlikely a team that loses to both Kentucky and Auburn could win those last 4. Even with Trey. Anything can happen, I guess, and we’ll have to wait to see how it plays out, but I think we have to go 10-2 this year to make it. A 9-3 team might eventually make the 12-team playoff, but I just don’t see a realistic path for it being 2026 LSU.
Posted by Tiger Ugly
Baton Rouge
Member since Jul 2008
19328 posts
Posted on 9/30/26 at 12:46 pm to
quote:

Also, it turns out Ole Miss is bad, A&M is worse, and Clemson is a high school team. It wouldn’t surprise me if we lost 3 or 4 more games at all.


I would not say Ole Miss is bad, but I would say their defense is, which is why that first quarter and a half was so disappointing. I see Ole Miss finishing 8-4 and that only because of their QB.

I do think Clemson and Aggies ARE bad. Clemson might finish 8-4 because their schedule is so very weak...but make no mistake they are bad.
Posted by Alt26
Member since Mar 2010
36619 posts
Posted on 9/30/26 at 12:51 pm to
quote:

But they took Bama at 9-3


Incorrect. Alabama was 10-2 in the regular season. The committee just did not penalize Alabama for losing to Georgia in the SECCG as opposed to what it did with Virginia losing to Duke in the ACCCG

Also, I think the injury concerns are a bit overblown at this point (assuming Leavitt won't miss any SEC games). Once the switch was made to put Thomas at FS and Benefield at star the defense really didn't lose a beat. In fact, it could be better with Benefield being a better "star".

Green is definitely a loss. But in the first game without him LSU did not miss his production. In fact, Leavitt had his best passing day of the year...it's just that the passes went to a different receiver (Harris).

The loss of Weeks remains TBD. But unlike in prior years you have another high quality LB still in the lineup (Dottery) and the backup (Keys) now has nearly 30 games of experience. He's not as impactful as Weeks, but the dropoff likely won't be as severe as it would be if LSU had to throw out an inexperienced player.

That is NOT to say the injuries will have no effect. They will. But it's a bit premature to start assuming another 2 losses are coming simply because of injuries to 3 players.
Posted by GeorgeWest
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2013
15172 posts
Posted on 9/30/26 at 12:52 pm to
It ALL depends on what records other contending teams have in other conferences.

Pull for teams like Oregon, Penn State, Iowa, Nebraska, BYU, Utah, Texas Tech, Houston to lose at least 2 games and preferably three.

LSU, IMO, has too many crucial injuries to end up in the CFP this season. I think we'll have trouble even ending up 9-3 (which was my preseason pick for our team.)
Posted by goatmilker
Castle Anthrax
Member since Feb 2009
77756 posts
Posted on 9/30/26 at 12:57 pm to
Why clutch pearls over games we haven't lost yet.
Posted by TheWalrus
Land of the Hogs
Member since Dec 2012
48538 posts
Posted on 9/30/26 at 1:07 pm to
It depends on what other teams do.
Posted by Tiger Ugly
Baton Rouge
Member since Jul 2008
19328 posts
Posted on 9/30/26 at 1:09 pm to
quote:

LSU, IMO, has too many crucial injuries to end up in the CFP this season. I think we'll have trouble even ending up 9-3 (which was my preseason pick for our team.)


I think other teams will get injuries too. A&M had several we just ignored it cause it's not us. I still think 9-3 a very reasonable expectation.
Posted by Hold That Tiger 10
Member since Oct 2013
26033 posts
Posted on 9/30/26 at 1:17 pm to
quote:

Also, it turns out Ole Miss is bad, A&M is worse, and Clemson is a high school team. It wouldn’t surprise me if we lost 3 or 4 more games at all.


What an absolutely terrible take.
Posted by Jabontik
Houston
Member since Dec 2016
4899 posts
Posted on 9/30/26 at 1:53 pm to
quote:

They are considering strength of conference in its selection process.


It only took how many years? Disgusting those idiots keep valuing destroying teams like Rutgers as the same as playing a tough game at Auburn
Posted by Madking
Member since Apr 2016
74700 posts
Posted on 9/30/26 at 1:57 pm to
Mostly it depends on other playoff contenders records. If you have something like a 2007 top 5 situation, a 3 loss team can get in.
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