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If there had been a 12-team playoff system in 03,07,11,19, how many does LSU win?
Posted on 10/19/26 at 9:59 am
Posted on 10/19/26 at 9:59 am
*long post alert*
I used chat gpt to calculate the likely 12 teams for each year and asked it to give me the likely winners, the results were pretty interesting, can't say I disagree with it.
2003 (Final BCS Standings - Dec. 7, 2003)
Oklahoma
LSU
USC
Michigan
Ohio State
Texas
Florida State
Tennessee
Miami (FL)
Kansas State
Miami (OH)
Georgia
Likely First Round
#5 Ohio State vs #12 Georgia
#6 Texas vs #11 Miami (OH)
#7 Florida State vs #10 Kansas State
#8 Tennessee vs #9 Miami (FL)
2007 (Final BCS Standings - Dec. 2, 2007)
Ohio State
LSU
Virginia Tech
Oklahoma
Georgia
Missouri
USC
Kansas
West Virginia
Hawaii
Arizona State
Florida
Likely First Round
#5 Georgia vs #12 Florida
#6 Missouri vs #11 Arizona State
#7 USC vs #10 Hawaii
#8 Kansas vs #9 West Virginia
This would have been an absolutely loaded playoff, especially with Georgia, USC, Florida, and West Virginia all capable of winning it.
2011 (Final BCS Standings - Dec. 4, 2011)
LSU
Alabama
Oklahoma State
Stanford
Oregon
Arkansas
Boise State
Kansas State
South Carolina
Wisconsin
Virginia Tech
Baylor
Likely First Round
#5 Oregon vs #12 Baylor
#6 Arkansas vs #11 Virginia Tech
#7 Boise State vs #10 Wisconsin
#8 Kansas State vs #9 South Carolina
Many fans still argue this would have settled the LSU-Alabama-Oklahoma State controversy much better than the actual BCS title game.
2019 (Final CFP Rankings - Dec. 8, 2019)
LSU
Ohio State
Clemson
Oklahoma
Georgia
Oregon
Baylor
Wisconsin
Florida
Penn State
Utah
Auburn
Likely First Round
#5 Georgia vs #12 Auburn
#6 Oregon vs #11 Utah
#7 Baylor vs #10 Penn State
#8 Wisconsin vs #9 Florida
2003 12-Team Playoff
First Round
#5 Ohio State over #12 Georgia
#6 Texas over #11 Miami (OH)
#7 Florida State over #10 Kansas State
#8 Tennessee over #9 Miami (FL)
Quarterfinals
#1 Oklahoma over Tennessee
#2 LSU over Florida State
#3 USC over Texas
#4 Michigan over Ohio State (Michigan had already beaten OSU that season)
Semifinals
LSU over Michigan
USC over Oklahoma
National Championship
?? USC over LSU
Why: USC finished #1 in the AP Poll and destroyed Michigan 28-14 in the Rose Bowl. Pete Carroll's defense with Leinart and Bush/White emerging was peaking at the perfect time.
2007 12-Team Playoff
The greatest chaos season ever.
First Round
Georgia over Florida
Missouri over Arizona State
USC over Hawaii
Kansas over West Virginia
Quarterfinals
Ohio State over Kansas
LSU over USC
Oklahoma over Missouri
Georgia over Virginia Tech
Semifinals
LSU over Georgia
Oklahoma over Ohio State
National Championship
?? LSU over Oklahoma
Why: LSU had beaten seven ranked teams and had NFL talent everywhere. They already handled Virginia Tech badly and later crushed Ohio State in the actual title game.
Dark horse: Georgia. Many people believed Georgia was the best team in the country by season's end.
2011 12-Team Playoff
This one is fascinating because Oklahoma State finally gets its chance.
First Round
Oregon over Baylor
Arkansas over Virginia Tech
Wisconsin over Boise State
Kansas State over South Carolina
Quarterfinals
LSU over Kansas State
Alabama over Wisconsin
Oklahoma State over Arkansas
Stanford over Oregon
Semifinals
LSU over Stanford
Alabama over Oklahoma State
National Championship
?? LSU over Alabama
Big Difference from Reality: Alabama would have had to survive Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, and LSU.
LSU's regular-season résumé was ridiculous:
beat Oregon
beat West Virginia
beat Arkansas
beat Georgia
beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa
A playoff likely helps LSU more than anybody because they were clearly the nation's most complete team before the rematch fatigue set in.
2019 12-Team Playoff
First Round
Georgia over Auburn
Oregon over Utah
Penn State over Baylor
Florida over Wisconsin
Quarterfinals
LSU over Florida
Ohio State over Penn State
Clemson over Oregon
Oklahoma over Georgia
Semifinals
LSU over Oklahoma
Clemson over Ohio State
(Exactly what happened in the actual CFP.)
National Championship
?? LSU over Clemson
(Again, exactly what happened.)
Joe Burrow was operating at perhaps the highest level we've ever seen from a college QB.
My Projected Champions
Year Champion2003 USC
2007 LSU
2011 LSU
2019 LSU
Most Likely Alternate Champions
2003: LSU
2007: Georgia
2011: Alabama or Oklahoma State
2019: Ohio State
Of the four seasons, 2011 is the one I'd most want to replay. A 12-team playoff with LSU, Alabama, Oklahoma State, Stanford (Luck), Oregon, Arkansas, and Boise State could have produced one of the strongest playoff fields in college football history.
I used chat gpt to calculate the likely 12 teams for each year and asked it to give me the likely winners, the results were pretty interesting, can't say I disagree with it.
2003 (Final BCS Standings - Dec. 7, 2003)
Oklahoma
LSU
USC
Michigan
Ohio State
Texas
Florida State
Tennessee
Miami (FL)
Kansas State
Miami (OH)
Georgia
Likely First Round
#5 Ohio State vs #12 Georgia
#6 Texas vs #11 Miami (OH)
#7 Florida State vs #10 Kansas State
#8 Tennessee vs #9 Miami (FL)
2007 (Final BCS Standings - Dec. 2, 2007)
Ohio State
LSU
Virginia Tech
Oklahoma
Georgia
Missouri
USC
Kansas
West Virginia
Hawaii
Arizona State
Florida
Likely First Round
#5 Georgia vs #12 Florida
#6 Missouri vs #11 Arizona State
#7 USC vs #10 Hawaii
#8 Kansas vs #9 West Virginia
This would have been an absolutely loaded playoff, especially with Georgia, USC, Florida, and West Virginia all capable of winning it.
2011 (Final BCS Standings - Dec. 4, 2011)
LSU
Alabama
Oklahoma State
Stanford
Oregon
Arkansas
Boise State
Kansas State
South Carolina
Wisconsin
Virginia Tech
Baylor
Likely First Round
#5 Oregon vs #12 Baylor
#6 Arkansas vs #11 Virginia Tech
#7 Boise State vs #10 Wisconsin
#8 Kansas State vs #9 South Carolina
Many fans still argue this would have settled the LSU-Alabama-Oklahoma State controversy much better than the actual BCS title game.
2019 (Final CFP Rankings - Dec. 8, 2019)
LSU
Ohio State
Clemson
Oklahoma
Georgia
Oregon
Baylor
Wisconsin
Florida
Penn State
Utah
Auburn
Likely First Round
#5 Georgia vs #12 Auburn
#6 Oregon vs #11 Utah
#7 Baylor vs #10 Penn State
#8 Wisconsin vs #9 Florida
2003 12-Team Playoff
First Round
#5 Ohio State over #12 Georgia
#6 Texas over #11 Miami (OH)
#7 Florida State over #10 Kansas State
#8 Tennessee over #9 Miami (FL)
Quarterfinals
#1 Oklahoma over Tennessee
#2 LSU over Florida State
#3 USC over Texas
#4 Michigan over Ohio State (Michigan had already beaten OSU that season)
Semifinals
LSU over Michigan
USC over Oklahoma
National Championship
?? USC over LSU
Why: USC finished #1 in the AP Poll and destroyed Michigan 28-14 in the Rose Bowl. Pete Carroll's defense with Leinart and Bush/White emerging was peaking at the perfect time.
2007 12-Team Playoff
The greatest chaos season ever.
First Round
Georgia over Florida
Missouri over Arizona State
USC over Hawaii
Kansas over West Virginia
Quarterfinals
Ohio State over Kansas
LSU over USC
Oklahoma over Missouri
Georgia over Virginia Tech
Semifinals
LSU over Georgia
Oklahoma over Ohio State
National Championship
?? LSU over Oklahoma
Why: LSU had beaten seven ranked teams and had NFL talent everywhere. They already handled Virginia Tech badly and later crushed Ohio State in the actual title game.
Dark horse: Georgia. Many people believed Georgia was the best team in the country by season's end.
2011 12-Team Playoff
This one is fascinating because Oklahoma State finally gets its chance.
First Round
Oregon over Baylor
Arkansas over Virginia Tech
Wisconsin over Boise State
Kansas State over South Carolina
Quarterfinals
LSU over Kansas State
Alabama over Wisconsin
Oklahoma State over Arkansas
Stanford over Oregon
Semifinals
LSU over Stanford
Alabama over Oklahoma State
National Championship
?? LSU over Alabama
Big Difference from Reality: Alabama would have had to survive Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, and LSU.
LSU's regular-season résumé was ridiculous:
beat Oregon
beat West Virginia
beat Arkansas
beat Georgia
beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa
A playoff likely helps LSU more than anybody because they were clearly the nation's most complete team before the rematch fatigue set in.
2019 12-Team Playoff
First Round
Georgia over Auburn
Oregon over Utah
Penn State over Baylor
Florida over Wisconsin
Quarterfinals
LSU over Florida
Ohio State over Penn State
Clemson over Oregon
Oklahoma over Georgia
Semifinals
LSU over Oklahoma
Clemson over Ohio State
(Exactly what happened in the actual CFP.)
National Championship
?? LSU over Clemson
(Again, exactly what happened.)
Joe Burrow was operating at perhaps the highest level we've ever seen from a college QB.
My Projected Champions
Year Champion2003 USC
2007 LSU
2011 LSU
2019 LSU
Most Likely Alternate Champions
2003: LSU
2007: Georgia
2011: Alabama or Oklahoma State
2019: Ohio State
Of the four seasons, 2011 is the one I'd most want to replay. A 12-team playoff with LSU, Alabama, Oklahoma State, Stanford (Luck), Oregon, Arkansas, and Boise State could have produced one of the strongest playoff fields in college football history.
Posted on 10/19/26 at 10:00 am to EPORE
3 we were absolutely the best team in the country in 2003, 2007 and 2019
Maybe 2011. Never know if Alabama gets upset or something and I think they’re the only team beating us that year.
Maybe 2011. Never know if Alabama gets upset or something and I think they’re the only team beating us that year.
Posted on 10/19/26 at 10:02 am to EPORE
It wouldn’t have changed our existing titles but we might’ve taken 2006 too
Posted on 10/19/26 at 10:03 am to EPORE
LSU also would’ve been in the playoffs 2005, 2006, 2010, 2012, & 2018
This post was edited on 10/19/26 at 10:04 am
Posted on 10/19/26 at 10:07 am to JimTiger72
no doubt we would have like made it to another Natty in other years, I was just comparing it to the years we actually did play in them. Man I wish I could have seen an LSU/USC Natty in 03, that would have been a game!
Posted on 10/19/26 at 10:10 am to Walnut
I think we were the best team in the country at the end of 2006 season, would have been hard to beat in a playoff.
Posted on 10/19/26 at 10:21 am to SammyTiger
quote:
2011. Never know if Alabama gets upset or something and I think they’re the only team beating us that year.
Bama was the ONLY team that could beat us that season. Iowa State thank you for that.
Posted on 10/19/26 at 10:26 am to IM_4_LSU
I don't think we win any others under these strictures.
I think the 2001 team may have had a better shot than any of the ones after 2003, though. That team was rolling at the end of the year and through the SECCG when they stomped No 1 Tennessee.
I think the 2001 team may have had a better shot than any of the ones after 2003, though. That team was rolling at the end of the year and through the SECCG when they stomped No 1 Tennessee.
Posted on 10/19/26 at 10:35 am to JimTiger72
This is a great question - 2012 is likely our best shot at an additional title with the possibility of loosing 2007.
We win 2007 and 2019
We have a great shot at 2003 and 2012
We have a small shot at 2006 and 2010
We don’t win 2005, 2011 or 2018
2003 - USC would be a tough one 50%
2005 - Wouldn’t beat USC or Texas
2006 - UF and OSU ~10%
2010 - Auburn and Oregon ~15%
2012 - ND / UGA / Bama - 50%
2018 - Bama and Clemson - %1
We lost to
Florida in 2006
Auburn in 2010
Bama in 2012
Bama in 2018
quote:
LSU also would’ve been in the playoffs 2005, 2006, 2010, 2012, & 2018
We win 2007 and 2019
We have a great shot at 2003 and 2012
We have a small shot at 2006 and 2010
We don’t win 2005, 2011 or 2018
2003 - USC would be a tough one 50%
2005 - Wouldn’t beat USC or Texas
2006 - UF and OSU ~10%
2010 - Auburn and Oregon ~15%
2012 - ND / UGA / Bama - 50%
2018 - Bama and Clemson - %1
We lost to
Florida in 2006
Auburn in 2010
Bama in 2012
Bama in 2018
Posted on 10/19/26 at 10:35 am to EPORE
We win the national championship in 2006 if there's a playoff.
2003, 2006, 2019 are the years I think we win.
2007 would be a coin flip. Georgia would have been tough.
2003, 2006, 2019 are the years I think we win.
2007 would be a coin flip. Georgia would have been tough.
Posted on 10/19/26 at 10:37 am to TheDeathValley
quote:
Auburn in 2010
2010 is an interesting one.
We got a lot better during the bowl practices that year. I would have liked the chance to get Cam Newton on a neutral field.
Posted on 10/19/26 at 10:38 am to EPORE
The BCS was great because it broke the conference tie ins to allow a championship game, maintained the importance of bowls, but was slightly too limited in scope in some seasons.
A final four playoff was a great idea, but the elimination of the BCS formula for a selection committee was a disastrous switch imo. Had they simply moved the BCS to a final four it would have been nearly perfect.
But the yearly controversy over the committee’s decisions led to the inevitable cries for expansion, which was likely the reason they did it.
A final six (top 2 byes) would have been perfection, but the top 12 should have been the absolute ceiling (everyone respects and acknowledges what a top 10 ranking means with two at larges getting a chance for mid majors to compete as well) with an objective formula similar to the BCS model would have been an incredible way to maintain the tradition of conference championships and bowl integrity while still allowing wide access to the playoff and a true search for the best and most deserving teams to compete for the title.
So frustrating that it always boils down to money with no one willing to stand up and do what is actually best for the sport.
A final four playoff was a great idea, but the elimination of the BCS formula for a selection committee was a disastrous switch imo. Had they simply moved the BCS to a final four it would have been nearly perfect.
But the yearly controversy over the committee’s decisions led to the inevitable cries for expansion, which was likely the reason they did it.
A final six (top 2 byes) would have been perfection, but the top 12 should have been the absolute ceiling (everyone respects and acknowledges what a top 10 ranking means with two at larges getting a chance for mid majors to compete as well) with an objective formula similar to the BCS model would have been an incredible way to maintain the tradition of conference championships and bowl integrity while still allowing wide access to the playoff and a true search for the best and most deserving teams to compete for the title.
So frustrating that it always boils down to money with no one willing to stand up and do what is actually best for the sport.
Posted on 10/19/26 at 10:39 am to EPORE
Just state that a 12 team playoff starts in 2000 and see then. We would have made it more times like 2010, also 2005 and 2006.
Posted on 10/19/26 at 10:45 am to EPORE
I’ll forever believe we’d win it all in 2006.
Posted on 10/19/26 at 10:49 am to EPORE
I’d like to see 2001 too. LSU could’ve beat any team in the country at the end of that year. We had become a much better team in the second half of the year.
This post was edited on 10/19/26 at 10:50 am
Posted on 10/19/26 at 10:50 am to Lsuray70443
Assuming a 12-team playoff beginning in 2000 and using the final BCS rankings (2000-2013) and CFP rankings (2014-present), LSU would have made the field 11 times through the 2019 season.
Here's my estimate of LSU's championship chances entering each hypothetical playoff. These are not betting-market numbers, but a blend of ranking position, power ratings, roster strength, and postseason performance.
Season LSU Seed (Approx.) Chance to Win Title
2001 #13 (missed field) 0%
2002 Outside Top 12 0%
2003 #2 30%
2004 Outside Top 12 0%
2005 #5 12%
2006 #4 15%
2007 #2 22%
2008 Outside Top 12 0%
2009 #11 2%
2010 Outside Top 12 0%
2011 #1 35%
2012 #8 5%
2013 #14 0%
2014 Outside Top 12 0%
2015 #20 0%
2016 #13 0%
2017 #17 0%
2018 #11 4%
2019 #1 45%
LSU's 11 Playoff Appearances
2003
2005
2006
2007
2009
2011
2012
2018
2019
Actually, under a strict 12-team cutoff, LSU would make it 9 times through 2019, not 11. The years above with seeds shown are the actual playoff years.
Here's my estimate of LSU's championship chances entering each hypothetical playoff. These are not betting-market numbers, but a blend of ranking position, power ratings, roster strength, and postseason performance.
Season LSU Seed (Approx.) Chance to Win Title
2001 #13 (missed field) 0%
2002 Outside Top 12 0%
2003 #2 30%
2004 Outside Top 12 0%
2005 #5 12%
2006 #4 15%
2007 #2 22%
2008 Outside Top 12 0%
2009 #11 2%
2010 Outside Top 12 0%
2011 #1 35%
2012 #8 5%
2013 #14 0%
2014 Outside Top 12 0%
2015 #20 0%
2016 #13 0%
2017 #17 0%
2018 #11 4%
2019 #1 45%
LSU's 11 Playoff Appearances
2003
2005
2006
2007
2009
2011
2012
2018
2019
Actually, under a strict 12-team cutoff, LSU would make it 9 times through 2019, not 11. The years above with seeds shown are the actual playoff years.
Posted on 10/19/26 at 11:04 am to JimTiger72
quote:
LSU also would’ve been in the playoffs 2005, 2006, 2010, 2012, & 2018
LSU in late 2018 would’ve been very interesting. Burrow was really starting to find his stride even though we were still running the old-school offense.
Posted on 10/19/26 at 11:14 am to EPORE
LSU wins in 03 and 06. Auburn wins in 04. Texas wins in 05. LSU loses to Georgia in 07, and Alabama in 11. LSU wins shockingly in 2012. LSU loses to Georgia in 2018, barely misses the playoffs in 2022 and 2023.
04 gives LSU a favorable draw against Cal and then Utah in the second round despite being the last team in. LSU’s cinderella story runs out in the semi-finals against USC, who goes on to lose to Auburn (who eliminated Iowa and Boise State along the way).
In 2005, LSU wins the first round game against Oregon, but loses in the second round to Texas.
In 2006, LSU just blows everyone away. Demolishing Notre Dame
in the first round, L’ville in the second round, Boise St in the semis, and Florida in the championship game.
In 2007, LSU gets a first round bye and demolishes Hawaii in round 2 and Mizzou in the Semis, but loses to Georgia in the championship game.
In 2009, LSU is the last team in and loses to Florida in the first round.
In 2010, the Heart Attack tigers get a surprise upset win against Ohio State in the first round before losing to TCU in the second round.
In 2011, LSU gets a first round bye, then demolishes South Carolina, but loses to Alabama in the semifinals who goes on to beat Iowa St in the title game.
In 2012, LSU blasts A&M in the first round to get a rematch with Bama in the second round. They win the rematch, dominate Notre Dame in the semis, and then win a difficult rematch against Florida in the championship game.
2018 is interesting. I think the 2018 team was playing its best football at the end of the year. 2018 LSU unfortunately gets a bad first round matchup against Georgia as they’re the second to last team in. They lose to Georgia.
ETA: LSU nets one extra natty by winning in 06 and 12, but losing in 07.
04 gives LSU a favorable draw against Cal and then Utah in the second round despite being the last team in. LSU’s cinderella story runs out in the semi-finals against USC, who goes on to lose to Auburn (who eliminated Iowa and Boise State along the way).
In 2005, LSU wins the first round game against Oregon, but loses in the second round to Texas.
In 2006, LSU just blows everyone away. Demolishing Notre Dame
in the first round, L’ville in the second round, Boise St in the semis, and Florida in the championship game.
In 2007, LSU gets a first round bye and demolishes Hawaii in round 2 and Mizzou in the Semis, but loses to Georgia in the championship game.
In 2009, LSU is the last team in and loses to Florida in the first round.
In 2010, the Heart Attack tigers get a surprise upset win against Ohio State in the first round before losing to TCU in the second round.
In 2011, LSU gets a first round bye, then demolishes South Carolina, but loses to Alabama in the semifinals who goes on to beat Iowa St in the title game.
In 2012, LSU blasts A&M in the first round to get a rematch with Bama in the second round. They win the rematch, dominate Notre Dame in the semis, and then win a difficult rematch against Florida in the championship game.
2018 is interesting. I think the 2018 team was playing its best football at the end of the year. 2018 LSU unfortunately gets a bad first round matchup against Georgia as they’re the second to last team in. They lose to Georgia.
ETA: LSU nets one extra natty by winning in 06 and 12, but losing in 07.
This post was edited on 10/19/26 at 11:16 am
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