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re: If I'm Jay, I'm saving Skenes...

Posted on 6/22/23 at 3:18 pm to
Posted by Penrod
Member since Jan 2011
39359 posts
Posted on 6/22/23 at 3:18 pm to
quote:

What happens if you lose and don't make the finals. Your season will end with the best college baseball pitcher in a decade sitting on the bench.

What happens if we pitch Skenes against Wake, then we lose to Florida with the best college pitcher in a decade sitting on the bench?

Think of it another way. If you did not know the order of the next four games, but only knew the days rest of each pitcher how would you use them?
Posted by JodyPlauche
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2009
8819 posts
Posted on 6/22/23 at 3:26 pm to
Saving him for the draft?

Posted by RoscoJelleauxShot
Shreveport, Louisiana
Member since Jun 2023
16 posts
Posted on 6/22/23 at 3:29 pm to
I actually couldn’t agree more with this. Worst case scenario Skenes has to come in for the save, pitches a little, and then he can come in against Florida. Very low downside. I’ve done it before with my ace on my travel ball team. He came in for the save and got rocked though and all the moms were so mad at me. But Skenes is a lot better than that.
Posted by TackySweater
Member since Dec 2020
11845 posts
Posted on 6/22/23 at 3:30 pm to
quote:

Who are you going to throw tonight?


Take a shot with someone that you feel capable. People said the same thing after we lost the first game to WF. They figured it out and it worked. If Skenes doesn’t start, he’s still there to come in.
Posted by TackySweater
Member since Dec 2020
11845 posts
Posted on 6/22/23 at 3:31 pm to
quote:

LOL, wut!?


What didn’t you understand?
Posted by redfish99
B.R.
Member since Aug 2007
16452 posts
Posted on 6/22/23 at 3:31 pm to
Roll with Christian Little. Win it all
Posted by TackySweater
Member since Dec 2020
11845 posts
Posted on 6/22/23 at 3:32 pm to
quote:

This is the fourth game in as many days, and there’s added swagger to this team with Skenes on the mound


I can guarantee this team has no problem with swagger right now.
Posted by DrEdgeLSU
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Dec 2006
8166 posts
Posted on 6/22/23 at 3:39 pm to
quote:

Wake is batting sub .200 and has zero HRs and has scored only 8 runs in the CWS.

Florida has 7 HRs and has scored 14 runs. They've looked like the better team and the more potent offense.


So in your mind there's no possibility for a regression to the mean for either of these teams?

Why not buy yourself some insurance against Wake by pitching a guy who is likely to keep the average around .200 and hold you to 1-2 runs?
Posted by ellessuuuu
Member since Sep 2004
8534 posts
Posted on 6/22/23 at 3:42 pm to
quote:

What happens if we pitch Skenes against Wake, then we lose to Florida with the best college pitcher in a decade sitting on the bench?

Think of it another way. If you did not know the order of the next four games, but only knew the days rest of each pitcher how would you use them?



He wouldn't be sitting on the bench because of the coach's decision not to play. He would be on the bench because he is physically not available. There is a huge difference.
Posted by tigerfoot
Alexandria
Member since Sep 2006
56329 posts
Posted on 6/22/23 at 3:44 pm to
quote:

There's no "wrong" answer except in hindsight.



The wrong answer is to get on the plane heading back to Baton Rouge and have the best pitcher in the history of the school to be nice and rested.
Posted by MrJimBeam
Member since Apr 2009
12306 posts
Posted on 6/22/23 at 3:45 pm to
quote:

Nothing wrong with that...



Posted by Eyeofthetiger78
Member since Jun 2023
254 posts
Posted on 6/22/23 at 3:45 pm to
Frick off
Posted by la_birdman
Lake Charles
Member since Feb 2005
31014 posts
Posted on 6/22/23 at 3:45 pm to
quote:

Why



Because you have to win this game. You don’t keep your ace, the best pitcher in the country, in the dugout and “save” him for a game that might take place.

It’s not that complicated.

In addition, have you seen how the pitching staff has been band aided together in the last few games? Who would you start?

quote:

he makes more sense


He really doesn’t. See above.
This post was edited on 6/22/23 at 3:48 pm
Posted by Sandperson
B-Ham, AL
Member since May 2005
4101 posts
Posted on 6/22/23 at 3:48 pm to
quote:

Pray for rain over the weekend


Prayer is always appreciated but, science is calling for rain on Saturday.
Posted by Tony Rocky Horror
Member since May 2023
312 posts
Posted on 6/22/23 at 3:53 pm to
Sudden death tonight... we riding with Skenes
Posted by paulb52
Member since Dec 2019
3661 posts
Posted on 6/22/23 at 3:56 pm to
For what? Lose tonight and it’s over.
Posted by la_birdman
Lake Charles
Member since Feb 2005
31014 posts
Posted on 6/22/23 at 3:57 pm to
quote:

For what? Lose tonight and it’s over.


Exactly. Not sure why some people can’t understand this.
Posted by Hot Carl
Prayers up for 3
Member since Dec 2005
59109 posts
Posted on 6/22/23 at 4:00 pm to
I can’t believe I’m entertaining this stupidity, but because if you start him early, it may be too late by the time you pull him. This has been a low scoring CWS—no team has scored more than 6 runs—so potentially spotting them a 3-run lead in an elimination game would be pretty devastating. It would put all the pressure on us, when it’s currently on them.

And I’m not saying Hurd would definitely give up runs, but he’s certainly more likely to than Skenes. And not just because Skenes is better, but because Skenes throws strikes. Hurd has a tendency to let a walk—certainly one where a borderline pitch doesn’t go his way—to get to him and it blows up on him. But even more than that, let’s say Hurd is absolutely dealing and has perfect command. Part of his game is throwing that nasty slider just off the plate and getting guys to chase it. Wake Forest has shown they’re disciplined and don’t chase much of anything even slightly off the late. It’s made for some backwards Ks for them, but also kept them in ABs. How many times in just the 2 games we’ve played them have they turned an 0-2 count into a walk? Or laid off close pitches that most teams would whiff on, foul a few off, and even if they eventually strike out, they’re making guys do it 5,6,7 pitches rather than 3. That adds up.

And they’ve ALREADY SEEN HURD. Just 3 days ago. They’ve seen his fastball, they’ve seen his slider, seen everything he has. So they’ll be even less likely tonight to chase stuff off the plate than they would have been the 1st time they faced him. If we’re gonna need Hurd tonight—and I think we will—I’d much rather it be with a lead late where the pressure is higher on Wake.

Which is another reason to start Skenes. They already started feeling the pressure yesterday. I think they felt it before the game—they wanted no part of a 2nd game today against Skenes. It’s why I thought the 1st couple of half innings last night were gonna be so crucial. I mean I thought that before the game. Don’t let them get any confidence going, don’t give them any hope. Well, we spotted them 2 runs and the pressure was back on us. But you could see it shift after we just got 1 run and were still down 2-1. I’m pretty sure Herring came back out with a quick inning right after. They were feeling the pressure already. Their dude couldn’t throw a strike in the bottom half. He walks a couple, Tanks sandwiches a single in there, he wild pitches and Crews scores.

And you could see their whole team get scared. Even their coach succumbed to the pressure and fricked up and didn’t walk Beloso with a base open and he made them pay with the bomb. Their coach admitted as much in the postgame presser.

Every team in Wake’s position would feel pressure. But they are even more susceptible to it because they simply aren’t used to having to deal with it at this level, against this good of a team. Then there’s the added pressure of being #1. Even more pressure knowing they could be about to squander a 2-0 start and not even get out of their bracket.


So you take advantage of all of that and go with your best. Step on their neck, choke the life out of them, whatever phrase suits you, but DO NOT GIVE THEM ANY HOPE. Not even the slightest, tiniest, itty-bittiest glimmer of hope. None. Zero. Because the pressure gets exponentially heavier the longer the game goes and they don’t have the lead.

You can live with getting beat with Skenes. You absolutely cannot live getting beat with Paul Skenes available. Can’t do it. Absolutely cannot do it. It spits in the face of the baseball gods. You have to play this game like it’s the championship game. The Finals do not exist. Jay cannot make any decision—not one—based on the fact that we might be playing Saturday. That’s the best way to ensure we’re not playing Saturday. There simply has never been an easier decision in baseball history than to start Skenes today.
Posted by DrEdgeLSU
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Dec 2006
8166 posts
Posted on 6/22/23 at 4:03 pm to
quote:

Hot Carl




Posted by LSUBALLER
Louisiana
Member since Jul 2013
16110 posts
Posted on 6/22/23 at 4:06 pm to
Thank God you aren’t Johnson
This post was edited on 6/22/23 at 4:07 pm
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