re: Going for 2-pt When Down by 2 TDs

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Assumptions:
55% 2 pt conversion rate
99% XP

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Both of these are too high.

From what I’ve seen college 2 point conversion rates are more like 45% and PAT rates more like 96%.

The logic still stands though.. possible outcomes:

Convert 2PC + convert PAT = win in regulation
45% * 96% = 43.2%

Convert 2PC + miss PAT = overtime
45% * 4% = 1.8*%

Fail 2PC + convert 2PC = overtime
55% * 45% = 24.8%

Fail 2 PC + fail 2PC = lose in regulation
55% * 55% = 30.2%

So assuming a 50% win probability in OT, that’s:
Regulation (win): 43.2%
Overtime (win): 13.3%
Win: 56.5%
Overtime (lose): 13.3%
Regulation (lose): 30.2%
Lose: 43.4%

Kicking both PAT’s gives you..

Make both = overtime
96% * 96% = 92.2%

Make 1 of 2 = lose in regulation
96% * 4% * 2 = 7.7%

Miss both = lose in regulation
4% * 4% = 0.1%

Again assuming 50% win probability in OT, that’s:
Overtime (win): 46.1%
Win: 46.1%
Overtime (lose): 46.1%
Regulation (lose): 7.8%
Lose: 53.9%

This has been something analytics people have pushed for a while and it makes sense by the numbers. By going for 2 on the first TD you give yourself options to respond accordingly on the second one, which reduces the risk compared to going for 2 on the second TD only.

For reference, the odds going for 2 on the second TD only would be:
Regulation (win): 43.2%
Overtime (win): 0.9%
Win: 44.1%
Regulation (lose): 55%
Overtime (lose): 0.9%
Lose: 55.9%

Those probabilities include the odds on the first PAT. In other words, those are the odds before you kick the first PAT if you know you want to go for 2 on the second TD - which is why they include overtime options (the 1.8% chance that you miss the PAT but convert the 2PC).

What nobody has mentioned is the percentages for successfully kicking the extra point in the pros is 92.4% and not 99%. Does the situation make the challenge even more tantalizing than it is in college football. You also need to take into account the weather in the pros in January is different than it is in college when the season is over in December or early January. The early January games are usually played indoors or warm weather locations.

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Even th8s off-season we heard how much better the offense moved the ball going no huddle. Yet he still waited as long as he possibly could to go to it. That's not how he's going to win games against the teams on our schedule.

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Can you please point to the specific places where this was set? Because I don’t recall reading it. And for the record it was a smart call. It was not being conservative. On the opposite side of the field the Florida State coach completely screwed the pooch on that toss dive otherwise it’s a two score game and what happen next was irrelevant. This is not the NFL! They are not kicking a field goal like they do in the NFL for an extra point when the weather in Cleveland Ohio or Buffalo New York is bitterly cold and windy in January. You have to factor in all of the elements and where your team was momentum wise. I like our chances to win in OT.

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I get the 2 point attempts logic. Got it the first time I heard the suggestion. BUT Why does it apply only to the fourth quarter?!

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The issue with all of this is the OP and others are pointing to the NFL game to support their decision. You cannot because the statistics are 99% success rate for college and 92.5% success rate.
This was inside a dome vs outside in January in Cleveland.

There are so many other factors that play a part. What happens if the punt isn’t muffed and there is more time on the clock? LSU got exactly what it needed when it needed and played itself into a position to tie the game and go into OT with the momentum. If I’m Kelly, I’m kicking it because I was successful the previous kick.

That’s some bill Walton shite.

Thinking college kickers make 99% of extra points

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Brian Kelly brought up analytics when addressing his decision to kick the PAT, so this analytical oversight is even more bothersome.

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I'm thinking you don't know what analytics are

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An NFL team is down by 14 points in the fourth quarter, and it scores a touchdown to pull within 8. The consensus says the team should kick the extra point, right? Not so fast.

In analytics circles, attempting a 2-point conversion when down 8 points late in the game has long been discussed as a slam-dunk decision that NFL coaches should make. Recently, it has become a choice that some coaches actually do make.

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guess you didn't read the article to this part:

"The reasons it hasn't worked:"