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re: For those complaining about Maineri and his lack of bunting
Posted on 4/23/15 at 8:55 pm to ell_13
Posted on 4/23/15 at 8:55 pm to ell_13
Over 162 games with 30 teams those numbers and situations average out. But yes, the situation could dictate bunting in some situations. Once again, I am talking about the people that say " you ALWAYS bunt there"
2
Posted on 4/23/15 at 8:56 pm to lsupride87
1-5 innings. Middle of the order. No. You don't fricking bunt. 7th inning. Tie game. Your best bunter followed your best chance at a ball into the OF. You bunt. PM has made this mistake so many times it's hilarious.
This post was edited on 4/23/15 at 8:57 pm
Posted on 4/23/15 at 8:57 pm to Tiger79
I'm not going to argue about his game managing but I think I've heard that complaint about every manager or baseball coach ever.
Posted on 4/23/15 at 8:57 pm to Tiger79
quote:not disagreeing with this
The only problem I have with CPM is he pulls some guys to early, or too late sometime. And he pushes too hard for sec tourney, his teams peak too early.
Posted on 4/23/15 at 8:59 pm to lsupride87
Let's see how it works out for A&M
Posted on 4/23/15 at 8:59 pm to lsupride87
I'm going to laugh when Lsu loses because a sac bunt worked.
Posted on 4/23/15 at 9:01 pm to lsupride87
Dude. CCM is 100% going by his gut on his decision has nothing to do with any odds.
Posted on 4/23/15 at 9:02 pm to lsupride87
The problem isn't bunting. It is the bunt one pitch, swing away next pitch, slash next pitch. The batter think too much and dribbles one back to the pitcher.
Posted on 4/23/15 at 9:10 pm to lsupride87
Although I can't argue with those stats but statistics can be swung to favor any point. That being said the problem I have is Pawl and his in game management is TERRIBLE. Of you aren't gonna bunt then don't that's perfectly ok with me. BUT if you arentire going to bunt in one situation don't pick a worse situation then bunt.
Posted on 4/23/15 at 9:11 pm to ell_13
quote:
u realize that your numbers are total runs and not single run? Bunting is for a single run... hitting away is usually for a multiple run inning. You also have to take into account who's hitting. We had our 6,7,8 guys up. You bunt there and let Chi hit it in the outfield. It's as simple as can be really.
This, you have a higher chance to score one run, not the avg run scored
Posted on 4/23/15 at 9:12 pm to lsupride87
You mean last year when there were two home runs in the CWS? It's a fact if you get a guy to second with one or no outs , he has a much higher chance of scoring.
Posted on 4/23/15 at 9:17 pm to Tiger79
quote:
he only problem I have with CPM is he pulls some guys to early, or too late sometime.
Thank you Mr. Baseball. I see your 20/20 hindsight is working.
Posted on 4/23/15 at 9:44 pm to lsupride87
I hate bunting too, but damnit sometimes it is called for, and is the smart play.
Almost always it's late in a tie, or one run game.
Almost always it's late in a tie, or one run game.
Posted on 4/23/15 at 9:47 pm to lsupride87
Need to consider at what time in game the attempt is to be made. Low scoring ,Slugfest??? I'll take 2nd and 3rd one out every time after 5th inning in a tied game.
Posted on 4/23/15 at 11:01 pm to TampaTiger22
quote:Umm, actually it is the opposite based on ACTUAL facts
You mean last year when there were two home runs in the CWS? It's a fact if you get a guy to second with one or no outs , he has a much higher chance of scoring.
Posted on 4/23/15 at 11:08 pm to lsupride87
And all you "sac bunt in late inning guys" you are factually wrong as well. Look, don't get mad at me, just try to argue these statistics:
[quote]The win expectancy for a home team trailing by one in the bottom of the ninth is higher with a runner on first and nobody out than it is with a runner on second and one out.[/quote]
quote:
But for the most part, the sac bunt has fallen out of favor because teams are too smart to be so dumb. They know that the data says that giving up an out to advance a runner is a very bad idea.
[quote]The win expectancy for a home team trailing by one in the bottom of the ninth is higher with a runner on first and nobody out than it is with a runner on second and one out.[/quote]
This post was edited on 4/23/15 at 11:10 pm
Posted on 4/23/15 at 11:16 pm to lsupride87
Why don't you research what is more likely to score a run? Runners at 1st and 2nd with 0 outs, or runners at 2nd and 3rd with 1 out. That was the bunting situation that Paul Mainieri lost his patience and called for the hit and run.
Move the runners from first and second with 0 outs and you take away the double play. You don't even need a hit to score the runner from third with 1 out. A sac fly or ground ball can do it.
Move the runners from first and second with 0 outs and you take away the double play. You don't even need a hit to score the runner from third with 1 out. A sac fly or ground ball can do it.
Posted on 4/23/15 at 11:18 pm to Choupique19
quote:
Why don't you research what is more likely to score a run? Runners at 1st and 2nd with 0 outs, or runners at 2nd and 3rd with 1 out. That was the bunting situation that Paul Mainieri lost his patience and called for the hit and run.
Not bunting is statistically more likely.
Posted on 4/23/15 at 11:21 pm to Choupique19
quote:Umm it is in the OP dude
Why don't you research what is more likely to score a run? Runners at 1st and 2nd with 0 outs, or runners at 2nd and 3rd with 1 out. That was the bunting situation that Paul Mainieri lost his patience and called for the hit and run.
Move the runners from first and second with 0 outs and you take away the double play. You don't even need a hit to score the runner from third with 1 out. A sac fly or ground ball can do it.
quote:
With runners at first and second and no outs, you had a 10.4 percent better chance of scoring a run than you did with runners at second and third and one out.
Posted on 4/23/15 at 11:26 pm to Choupique19
That's in the OP. 10% better chance based on stats. But it's very general. The situation is important still. Who's coming up to bat? Who's pitching? Etc.
If a guy gets to 2nd with no outs, he's scoring 80% (that's a guess) of the time anyway. So the split is something like 75% vs 83%.
Another thing about the stat... Isn't bunting included in the 1st and 2nd and no outs? It's not an "if you bunt vs if you don't" stat. It's a situation stat. So if you sac with first and second, and then have 1 out with runners at 2nd and 3rd then score. It counts for both numbers. It's not really saying anything abut bunting.
If a guy gets to 2nd with no outs, he's scoring 80% (that's a guess) of the time anyway. So the split is something like 75% vs 83%.
Another thing about the stat... Isn't bunting included in the 1st and 2nd and no outs? It's not an "if you bunt vs if you don't" stat. It's a situation stat. So if you sac with first and second, and then have 1 out with runners at 2nd and 3rd then score. It counts for both numbers. It's not really saying anything abut bunting.
This post was edited on 4/23/15 at 11:28 pm
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