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re: For those complaining about Maineri and his lack of bunting
Posted on 4/24/15 at 9:53 am to extremetigerfanatic
Posted on 4/24/15 at 9:53 am to extremetigerfanatic
quote:You'd also have to add in how good he is as a hitter, too. Lots of dynamics to get it as accurate as possible.
If you want to add how good the bunter is to the discussion it actually helps the don't bunt argument because no one is 100‰
1
Posted on 4/24/15 at 9:57 am to lsupride87
quote:
Like I said guys like redfield and ell are not the people this thread was actually intended for. It was for the numerous bashers in the baseball game thread that "you always bunt!!!!!!"
And you singaled me out as one of those guys. I haven't even been posting in the game threads this year. Decided to talk baseball with knowledgeable fans instead of the guys in that thread. I have made several posts in this thread in this morning and you have only responded to one of my posts, and that was to agree with me. So I don't understand what you are trying to argue. If you really want to get me fired up, let's discuss Paul Mainieri's hit and run fetish.
Posted on 4/24/15 at 10:01 am to lsupride87
I'm a long time member of the Bunting Sucks fan club, but I do want to point out something about the numbers in the OP's link. Those run expectancy tables are for MLB, not college, which has a different run expectancy.
Furthermore, defenses in college baseball are not as good as pro defenses and there is a greater chance that a sac bunt turns into an error or a hit than in the pros, so it's not entirely accurate to assume that a sac bunt equals an automatic out and a runner advances. Execution errors are just more common. there is SOME value to simply putting the ball in play and putting pressure on the defense.
Really, it is the principle that matters, not the precise math. Earl Weaver's 4th through 6th laws cover the decision to bunt succinctly:
4) Your most precious possessions on offense are your twenty-seven outs.
5) If you play for one run, that’s all you’ll get.
6) Don’t play for one run unless you know that run will win a ballgame.
So, I've got no problem with bunting with a runner on first and no one out in the 9th inning of a tie game. That's the exact time to play for one run, when that one run will win the game.
Furthermore, defenses in college baseball are not as good as pro defenses and there is a greater chance that a sac bunt turns into an error or a hit than in the pros, so it's not entirely accurate to assume that a sac bunt equals an automatic out and a runner advances. Execution errors are just more common. there is SOME value to simply putting the ball in play and putting pressure on the defense.
Really, it is the principle that matters, not the precise math. Earl Weaver's 4th through 6th laws cover the decision to bunt succinctly:
4) Your most precious possessions on offense are your twenty-seven outs.
5) If you play for one run, that’s all you’ll get.
6) Don’t play for one run unless you know that run will win a ballgame.
So, I've got no problem with bunting with a runner on first and no one out in the 9th inning of a tie game. That's the exact time to play for one run, when that one run will win the game.
Posted on 4/24/15 at 10:02 am to ell_13
One variable that keeps popping up in my mind as well that isn't specifically accounted for is how often does this pitcher put pitches in the dirt. And how good defensively is the catcher.
Posted on 4/24/15 at 10:12 am to extremetigerfanatic
quote:Yeh there are other variable to determine to get it very precise. Does the current hitter hit a lot of ground balls? How fast are the runners on base? How good can he actually bunt? Also, if you assume the fielders aren't as good in college so they can make an error on a sac bunt, you have to also assume they can make an error on a ground ball which will actually score the run from second right there. So that idea goes both ways
One variable that keeps popping up in my mind as well that isn't specifically accounted for is how often does this pitcher put pitches in the dirt. And how good defensively is the catcher.
Posted on 4/24/15 at 10:16 am to Baloo
quote:
Really, it is the principle that matters, not the precise math. Earl Weaver's 4th through 6th laws cover the decision to bunt succinctly:
4) Your most precious possessions on offense are your twenty-seven outs.
5) If you play for one run, that’s all you’ll get.
6) Don’t play for one run unless you know that run will win a ballgame.
So, I've got no problem with bunting with a runner on first and no one out in the 9th inning of a tie game. That's the exact time to play for one run, when that one run will win the game.
So when batting a true freshman with three career at bats and no hits in the bottom of the 11th inning of a tied conference game with runners on 1st and 2nd and nobody out, you'd bunt Deichman.
Got it.
Posted on 4/24/15 at 10:21 am to Choupique19
quote:You 100% bat Deichman according to the numbers there. I didnt mean to specifically call you out earlier btw
So when batting a true freshman with three career at bats and no hits in the bottom of the 11th inning of a tied conference game with runners on 1st and 2nd and nobody out, you'd bunt Deichman.
Got it
Posted on 4/24/15 at 10:23 am to lsupride87
So if you get a guy to second with 0 or 1 outs, he has a lesser chance to score? Intersting. So how do you score ? You are wrong pal.
Posted on 4/24/15 at 10:25 am to TampaTiger22
quote:A man on first with 0 out has a higher probabily to score a single run then a man on second with 1 out. You dont bunt there. Sorry
So if you get a guy to second with 0 or 1 outs, he has a lesser chance to score?
quote:No im not. It has been discussed. Ignore if you would like
So how do you score ? You are wrong pal.
Posted on 4/24/15 at 10:26 am to lsupride87
quote:
I didnt mean to specifically call you out earlier btw
That's okay. I got thrown into #teambunt after a rather epic melt following Raph Rhymes 3rd hit into double play in the 2013 SEC tournament.
Discussion is fun!!!
This post was edited on 4/24/15 at 10:27 am
Posted on 4/24/15 at 10:30 am to Choupique19
quote:Yeh it is. The people in this thread have all been very informed for the most part
Discussion is fun!!!
Posted on 4/24/15 at 10:34 am to Choupique19
I guess I would be more likely to join #teambunt if I had the confidence that the team could bunt successfully.
Posted on 4/24/15 at 10:42 am to LSUTygerFan
quote:
I guess I would be more likely to join #teambunt if I had the confidence that the team could bunt successfully.
But these kids played 82 games a summer in travel ball since they were 8 years old. Surely they were taught the finer points of baseball????
Also, bunting off of a pitching machine can be helpful, but if that is the only time you practice bunting, you will struggle when having to bunt off of a live arm that is also mixing breaking balls with fast balls.
Posted on 4/24/15 at 10:53 am to Choupique19
quote:
So when batting a true freshman with three career at bats and no hits in the bottom of the 11th inning of a tied conference game with runners on 1st and 2nd and nobody out, you'd bunt Deichman.
Well, no. I was speaking strictly theoretically. I would never, ever bunt Deichmann. Like, ever.
Also, I wouldn't bunt ever with runners on 1st and 2nd, as the runner is already in scoring position, and all you're doing is giving the opposing team the option to intentionally walk your next hitter without any real penalty. I strictly said runner on 1st with 0 outs.
Posted on 4/24/15 at 10:56 am to Baloo
There could be times with runner on lst and 2nd where you need to get out of the double play possibility.
Posted on 4/24/15 at 11:06 am to Baloo
quote:
wouldn't bunt ever with runners on 1st and 2nd
I would think twice or even one hundred times about stealing third when a runner is already in scoring position at second. I would be less hesitant to bunt however since there are multiple ways to score from third not available to a runner on second.
Posted on 4/24/15 at 11:07 am to lsupride87
Why don't you look up the stats for runner on second with one out versus no runners on and two outs? That's what the sac bunt tries to avoid, dumbass
Posted on 4/24/15 at 11:11 am to southeasttiger113
quote:
Why don't you look up the stats for runner on second with one out versus no runners on and two outs? That's what the sac bunt tries to avoid, dumbass
This is frickING CLASSIC? You realize the swing away situation takes double plays into effect right? That is part of the stats in those numbers. You are awesome. Now you are the type of person this thread was made for :lol: :bow: :bow:Posted on 4/24/15 at 11:13 am to Baloo
Deichmann doesn't have a hit. Sacrificing him was the right thing. 2nd and 3rd with 1 out is better than 1st and 2nd with no outs when playing for just 1 run. There are a multitude of ways to score with the former while the latter requires a hit. It's pretty straight forward.
Posted on 4/24/15 at 11:16 am to ell_13
quote:Correct. 1st and 2nd no outs while trying to score 1 run; and on 2nd with no outs while trying to score only one run are the two situations where bunting is correct statistically
Deichmann doesn't have a hit. Sacrificing him was the right thing. 2nd and 3rd with 1 out is better than 1st and 2nd with no outs when playing for just 1 run. There are a multitude of ways to score with the former while the latter requires a hit. It's pretty straight forward.
This post was edited on 4/24/15 at 11:16 am
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