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re: End of the year CFP Hypothetical per the committee tonight. Chick said LSU means Chaos
Posted on 11/8/22 at 9:02 pm to Merchant Tiger
Posted on 11/8/22 at 9:02 pm to Merchant Tiger
As it stands now a 12 team ply off game would be fun! I think we would get a play off game at home.
0
Posted on 11/8/22 at 9:03 pm to Joshjrn
quote:No, you're the delusional one.
and we got destroyed by Tennessee. At home. We need help to make the playoffs. Anyone who says otherwise is delusional.
Everyone is allowed to have an opinion. You never know what the committee will do so nothing is certain, but there is a fair amount more football to be played, and 4 weeks is a long time for perspectives to change. Acting like you have the only rational insight at this point proves your lack of perspective.
Posted on 11/8/22 at 9:04 pm to Joshjrn
quote:
Pray Tennessee drops another game so you can avoid the disappointment.
Sitting here today, Tennessee deserves to be ahead of LSU. Most of you with the belief that LSU won’t get in over Tennessee are stuck in today. Based on today, LSU doesn’t beat Georgia in the SECCG and none of this matters anyway. If LSU beats Georgia, that’s at least the 4th win since the Tennessee game showing that LSU is better than they were when they played Tennessee. The head-to-head result is no longer the main determinant since LSU, Georgia and Tennessee would all be 1-1 against each other. That changes the entire equation. At that point, the CFP criteria that gives precedence to conference champions puts LSU in ahead of Tennessee.
Posted on 11/8/22 at 9:05 pm to Merchant Tiger
Based on short term history(10 years), how do you keep SEC champion out of the final 4?
Posted on 11/8/22 at 9:27 pm to Joshjrn
We need a lot of help, the FSU loss is by far the worst loss of all the contenders which is why it’s ignored here. We got blown out at home by another possible and would have more losses than everyone else in your scenario. We’re not getting in if this is how it plays out period. Conf champ games mean nothing to the playoff committee and that precedent has already been set. People pretending they’ll change their criteria for us are delusional like you said.
Posted on 11/8/22 at 9:50 pm to Merchant Tiger
quote:
LSU has ugly losses.
But would have tremendous wins.
Posted on 11/8/22 at 9:55 pm to Joshjrn
quote:
LSU has ugly losses. Will they jump us in and keep the other 2 sec teams out?
Please explain how a loss to a potential 8-4 FSU team with losses to Clemson and maybe Syracuse in our opening game on a blocked kick against them in our opener against them in their second game with wins over Alabama and Georgia in the last month of the season constitutes enough "ugly" to keep us out of the playoff.
Posted on 11/8/22 at 10:03 pm to Merchant Tiger
My dream scenario.... nightmare for the CFP
LSU wins out and wins the SEC.
UGA finishes 12-1 with sole loss to us in SECCG
UT finishes 11-1
Ole Miss finishes 11-1
TCU loses a game.
Oregon, UCLA, Clemson and USC all lose 1 more game.
Michigan loses to Nebraska beats OSU loses in Big 10 title game to Illinois
OSU loses to Michigan and Maryland
CFP playoff is LSU, Ole Miss, UGA, and UT. College football breaks.
LSU wins out and wins the SEC.
UGA finishes 12-1 with sole loss to us in SECCG
UT finishes 11-1
Ole Miss finishes 11-1
TCU loses a game.
Oregon, UCLA, Clemson and USC all lose 1 more game.
Michigan loses to Nebraska beats OSU loses in Big 10 title game to Illinois
OSU loses to Michigan and Maryland
CFP playoff is LSU, Ole Miss, UGA, and UT. College football breaks.
Posted on 11/8/22 at 10:06 pm to Merchant Tiger
Lsu
Osu
Org
TCU
This hype about UGA is overblown...they only played two ranked teams...one against an out of the gates Oregon and a tired Tennesse...remember they struggled againt unranked teams...I would put Tennesee before them if they dont win out.
Osu
Org
TCU
This hype about UGA is overblown...they only played two ranked teams...one against an out of the gates Oregon and a tired Tennesse...remember they struggled againt unranked teams...I would put Tennesee before them if they dont win out.
Posted on 11/8/22 at 10:07 pm to Joshjrn
Not so fast. UGA would be in, Ohio St. (or Mich) would be in, TCU is in if they win out (not sure if anyone has actually looked at their SOS), and......LSU would get the nod over Oregon. Lots of fans around the country would be mad and the SEC bias would be talked about to no end.
However, the committee has a history of using whatever narrative they want to justify putting in teams they want. Sometimes it's the "best" four, other times it's the "most deserving" four. It's even been a time when it came down to "who was playing the best football right now).
Although LSU would have 2 losses, the committee would justify their decision by stating that they "just thought" LSU was better because LSU beat UGA...who beat Oregon by 46. You beat Bama and UGA in the same year AND win the SEC, LSU would definitely get in. The committee would just brace/expect the blowback and hope LSU does well in the playoffs to further confirm their decision.
This really isn't all that different from the BCS, just that there's 4 teams instead of 2.
However, the committee has a history of using whatever narrative they want to justify putting in teams they want. Sometimes it's the "best" four, other times it's the "most deserving" four. It's even been a time when it came down to "who was playing the best football right now).
Although LSU would have 2 losses, the committee would justify their decision by stating that they "just thought" LSU was better because LSU beat UGA...who beat Oregon by 46. You beat Bama and UGA in the same year AND win the SEC, LSU would definitely get in. The committee would just brace/expect the blowback and hope LSU does well in the playoffs to further confirm their decision.
This really isn't all that different from the BCS, just that there's 4 teams instead of 2.
Posted on 11/8/22 at 10:08 pm to Merchant Tiger
If LSU and Tenn win out, and UGA but for SECCG, but also TcU and Oregon, we sit at 5th. If all that but Oregon or TCU lose one, we're in.
Posted on 11/8/22 at 10:13 pm to Joshjrn
quote:
If that scenario plays out, we don’t sniff the playoffs.
So who are they putting in over LSU?
You're answer better be Big Ten Champ, TCU, Oregon, and UGA.
Even then, it's ridiculous to think that LSU gets left out with what would inevitably be 3 wins against Top 15 teams, with the best win of anyone over #1 UGA.
If they leave LSU out because of the loss to Tennessee, it just shows they care more about losses than wins, which is why you will continue to see mostly shitty non-conference games because playing good teams isn't worth the risk of a loss.
Posted on 11/8/22 at 10:34 pm to BlackAdam
quote:
My dream scenario...College football breaks.
Why do you want to break college football?
Posted on 11/9/22 at 12:44 am to Joshjrn
Sec champ is in. Lsu would be hottest team innation. Committee looks at lastest results. We would have beaten. OM bama. Ark. Uab. AM. Georgia. We in
Posted on 11/9/22 at 12:46 am to Srobi14
Hell yea We would beat ga.
Posted on 11/9/22 at 1:04 am to Merchant Tiger
All this hand wringing is pointless. If we win out, and I've repeated this phrase a number of times, but there is not a reality in the multiverse where the SEC champion is left out. I will not ever happen. The SEC Champion is always in, no matter what.
Posted on 11/9/22 at 1:15 am to Cadello
No it’s not!! This committee has shown that they will put the best 4 teams in the playoffs regardless of rankings or records !! If LSU wins out they will be in ! Best four not best record
Posted on 11/9/22 at 2:06 am to Merchant Tiger
Just take it one week at a time and pull for the games that matter. This week, those games are:
LSU over Arkansas (convincingly)
Alabama over Ole Miss in a tight game
Texas over TCU, preferably in a blowout
Florida State over Syracuse
All of those help LSU's case and there is a great chance that this is how these games go this weekend. If so, LSU creeps up to #6. The Florida State game does not have a direct impact, but it helps make the opening loss look a little better. Now for a little lagniappe:
Washington over Oregon
Miss St over Georgia
Mizzou over Tennessee
If Oregon loses (plus a TCU loss), LSU should move up to #5, just one spot out of the playoffs with 3 more weeks (including the conference championship games) of potential chaos to move up to #4. Mizzou damn near beat Georgia earlier in the year, so anything is possible and another loss by Tennessee would remove them as a threat. Miss State can hang, but it is highly unlikely that they will and, frankly, a Georgia loss isn't vitally important. I have a feeling that if LSU were to beat them in Atlanta, the committee would have a hard time keeping out an SEC Champ LSU for the team that they just beat head to head.
LSU over Arkansas (convincingly)
Alabama over Ole Miss in a tight game
Texas over TCU, preferably in a blowout
Florida State over Syracuse
All of those help LSU's case and there is a great chance that this is how these games go this weekend. If so, LSU creeps up to #6. The Florida State game does not have a direct impact, but it helps make the opening loss look a little better. Now for a little lagniappe:
Washington over Oregon
Miss St over Georgia
Mizzou over Tennessee
If Oregon loses (plus a TCU loss), LSU should move up to #5, just one spot out of the playoffs with 3 more weeks (including the conference championship games) of potential chaos to move up to #4. Mizzou damn near beat Georgia earlier in the year, so anything is possible and another loss by Tennessee would remove them as a threat. Miss State can hang, but it is highly unlikely that they will and, frankly, a Georgia loss isn't vitally important. I have a feeling that if LSU were to beat them in Atlanta, the committee would have a hard time keeping out an SEC Champ LSU for the team that they just beat head to head.
This post was edited on 11/9/22 at 2:12 am
Posted on 11/9/22 at 6:54 am to Merchant Tiger
Leaving an SEC champion LSU out while inviting two other SEC teams in would bring the eventual end to conference championship games.
I just don’t see how conference championships would matter after that.
I just don’t see how conference championships would matter after that.
Posted on 11/9/22 at 7:30 am to Srobi14
quote:
Do we really think we will beat that UGA team in Atlanta?
I saw a lot of this sort of talk before the Bama game.
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