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re: College Football Playoff to tweak the way it evaluates teams during the 2025 season

Posted on 8/20/25 at 11:58 am to
Posted by Specktricity
Lafayette
Member since May 2011
1349 posts
Posted on 8/20/25 at 11:58 am to
So basically, under this evaluation Bama would still have been left out because they lost to Vandy and Oklahoma.
Posted by Coloradeaux
Colorado Springs, CO
Member since Dec 2013
207 posts
Posted on 8/20/25 at 12:09 pm to
Doesn't matter. Just win and you're in.
Posted by Zephyrius
Wharton, La.
Member since Dec 2004
9405 posts
Posted on 8/20/25 at 12:13 pm to
quote:

If my memory is correct, every CFP ranking so far has matched what the BCS rankings would have been


Per Fake BCS rankings LINK

2024 BCS Rank
Oregon
Texas
Penn St
Notre Dame
Georgia
Ohio St
SMU
Indiana
Tennessee
Boise St
Alabama
South Carolina
****************************************************************
13. Arizona State
14. Miami
15. Iowa State
16. Mississippi

**18. Clemson

Clemson and Arizona State don't make the playoff based on pure BCS ranking.

2024 CFP ranking:

1. Oregon (13–0)
2. Georgia (11–2)
3. Texas (11–2)
4. Penn State (11–2)
5. Notre Dame (11–1)
6. Ohio State (10–2)
7. Tennessee (10–2)
8. Indiana (11–1)
9. Boise State (12–1)
10. SMU (11–2)
11. Alabama (9–3) out
12 Arizona State (11–2) Conf Champ
***********************************************************************************
13. Miami (FL) (10–2) out
14. Ole Miss (9–3) out
15. South Carolina (9–3) out
16. Clemson (10–3) Playoff - Conf Champ
This post was edited on 8/20/25 at 12:46 pm
Posted by LSUGrrrl
Frisco, TX
Member since Jul 2007
44890 posts
Posted on 8/20/25 at 12:17 pm to
quote:

The current schedule strength metric has been adjusted to apply greater weight to games against strong opponents,” the playoff’s release said. “An additional metric, record strength, has been added to the selection committee’s analysis to go beyond a team’s schedule strength to assess how a team performed against that schedule. This metric rewards teams defeating high-quality opponents while minimizing the penalty for losing to such a team. Conversely, these changes will provide minimal reward for defeating a lower-quality opponent while imposing a greater penalty for losing to such a team.”


Sounds like the USTA algorithm for player ratings. Not perfect but pretty fair. Better gains for tough opponents and not dinged as hard if you lose. Lower to no gains for beating lower opponents and big ding if you lose.
Posted by dallastiger55
Jennings, LA
Member since Jan 2010
33267 posts
Posted on 8/20/25 at 12:17 pm to
So we going to 9 sec games next year? I hope so
Posted by Alt26
Member since Mar 2010
34156 posts
Posted on 8/20/25 at 12:22 pm to
quote:

So basically, under this evaluation Bama would still have been left out because they lost to Vandy and Oklahoma.


The argument would have been that they beat Georgia (2), South Carolina (15), Missouri (19).

Compare that to:

South Carolina who only beat Clemson (16) and Missouri (19)
Ole Miss who beat South Carolina (15) and Georgia (2)
SMU who beat ZERO CFP top 25 teams
Miami who beat ZERO CFP top 25 teams
Indiana who beat ZERO CFP top 25 teams

The basketball selection committed often talks about the two most important metrics in their selection process is who you beat and where you beat them. Wins on the road and against great opponents count for way more than a "bad loss" hurts you. In large part that is the basis for the NET ratings. Wins away from home and wins over highly rated teams are the biggest factors.

I don't understand why the football selection committee can't incorporate that line of reasoning into their process.
Posted by Havoc
Member since Nov 2015
37688 posts
Posted on 8/20/25 at 12:39 pm to
quote:

Presumably it brings a team with a 9-3 record who played a tough schedule and beat good opponents into play over an 11-1 team who played a light schedule and beat no one of note (see Indiana and SMU)

I’m all for that 100%.
I think.
Posted by Chicken
Jackassistan
Member since Aug 2003
26916 posts
Posted on 8/20/25 at 12:41 pm to
quote:

1. Ohio State (11–1) (98) .
2. LSU (11–2) (7)
3. Oklahoma (11–2)
4. Georgia (10–2)
5. USC (10–2) .
6. Virginia Tech (11–2) (1)
7. Missouri (11–2) .
8. Kansas (11–1) .
9. West Virginia (10–2)
10. Hawaii (12–0) (1) .
11. Florida (9–3)
12. Arizona State (10–2)
great cross section of teams...
Posted by JPLSU1981
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2005
28328 posts
Posted on 8/20/25 at 12:53 pm to
Good, there were a handful of 9-3 SEC teams that IMO were easily better than Indiana and SMU last year.

Hell, there were a couple 4-loss SEC teams that were probably better than Indiana and SMU

If you don’t have a single Top15 win on your resume you shouldn’t be eligible for an at-large IMO. 12-0 or 11-1 or 10-2 versus a crap schedule isn’t enough for me.
This post was edited on 8/20/25 at 12:59 pm
Posted by LSUButt
Lowcountry
Member since Jan 2006
15895 posts
Posted on 8/20/25 at 1:07 pm to
This game was scheduled when playoffs were already a thing. Even without Clemson we have a top 10 difficult schedule
Posted by Indefatigable
Member since Jan 2019
35773 posts
Posted on 8/20/25 at 1:08 pm to
quote:

This game was scheduled when playoffs were already a thing. Even without Clemson we have a top 10 difficult schedule

The thought at the time was that teams would be penalized for scheduling four cream-puffs every year.

If you haven't looked at a schedule, every team is still playing major games in the early season that were scheduled in that 2015-2019 ish time frame.
Posted by mdomingue
Lafayette, LA
Member since Nov 2010
42768 posts
Posted on 8/20/25 at 1:13 pm to
quote:

Clemson and Arizona State don't make the playoff based on pure BCS ranking.



Here is the fake BCS I looked at that came out right after the conference championship game. The only team that was different was Clemson, but as the ACC champ, they were an AQ team, so the result would have been the same in terms of teams. The CFP does resede, and Tennessee got screwed by that, but they were not winning the Natty either way.

Here are the BCS simulated rankings I saw

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Also on 247, the same thing as what I posted above.

https://247sports.com/longformarticle/how-bcs-rankings-would-shape-the-college-football-playoff-bracket-with-alabama-smu-at-large-debate-241620086/#2562147

1. Oregon Ducks — 1.000
2. Georgia Bulldogs — 0.9500
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish — 0.9037
4. Texas Longhorns — 0.8603
5. Ohio State Buckeyes — 0.8112
6. Penn State Nittany Lions — 0.7972
7. Tennessee Volunteers — 0.7172
8. Indiana Hoosiers — 0.6880
9. Boise State Broncos — 0.6577
10. Arizona State Sun Devils — 0.6266
11. Alabama Crimson Tide — 0.5752
12. SMU Mustangs — 0.5630

13. Clemson Tigers — 0.5124
14. South Carolina Gamecocks — 0.5072
15. Miami Hurricanes — 0.4541
16. Ole Miss Rebels — 0.4387
17. BYU Cougars — 0.3620
18. Iowa State Cyclones — 0.2539
19. Army Black Knights — 0.2372
20. Illinois Fighting Illini — 0.1894
21. Missouri Tigers — 0.1720
22. Colorado Buffaloes — 0.1370
23. Syracuse Orange — 0.1222
24. Memphis Tigers — 0.0694
25. UNLV Rebels — 0.0655
Posted by paulb52
Member since Dec 2019
7466 posts
Posted on 8/20/25 at 4:00 pm to
Right, you can’t have a 12-0 team like Toolame sneak into to top 12.
Posted by Tigerpride18
Lakewood Colorado
Member since Sep 2017
32135 posts
Posted on 8/20/25 at 4:03 pm to
quote:

Why is college football always changing when Bama feels slighted?


it probably goes back to the rumor of bear Bryant being gay.
he probably has sucked off everybody associated with cfb in the past and they're still paying Bama back for that
Posted by icoczar
birmingham
Member since Sep 2005
1251 posts
Posted on 8/20/25 at 7:42 pm to
So if ever other letter after the first one is an A you get automatic bid then.
Posted by Bestbank Tiger
Premium Member
Member since Jan 2005
79283 posts
Posted on 8/20/25 at 7:43 pm to
quote:

The changes come after 9-3 Alabama was the first team left out of the playoff


The horror!
Posted by NorthstarinLA
Bossier City
Member since Dec 2020
2551 posts
Posted on 8/20/25 at 8:27 pm to
That’s Sankey & ESPN bending the knee and muzzling Sabans balls on their chin to get Bama in…
Posted by CharlestonTiger
Summerville, SC
Member since Nov 2019
984 posts
Posted on 8/20/25 at 8:29 pm to
quote:

while imposing a greater penalty for losing to such a team.”



Like, say...Northern Illinois?
Posted by how333
Member since Dec 2020
4019 posts
Posted on 8/20/25 at 8:55 pm to
Buck fama
Posted by redfish99
B.R.
Member since Aug 2007
18731 posts
Posted on 8/20/25 at 8:57 pm to
As it should be. We should be rewarded more if we play Clemson close than if we crushed North Texas.
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