re: Chance you think Bama makes the NCG. Whether you know what your talking about or

I don't care either way, but I just think that OSU will probally jump up if they Beat OU.

"OK State's computer ranking is higher than Bama's.

if they beat OU AND win their conference, they will jump Bama. you can bank on that."

I can't think of any other question I could have asked that would get answers all the way from 0-100%. This is great, I guess the media is getting everything they wanted out of this situation. Go tigers, go osu. (and typing on an iPad sucks. First time)

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37.373%. Based upon the fact that OSU beats OU by more than 2.5 points. And they outgain the Sooners by 103 yards or more.

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Thanks, I was hoping someone could put some numbers behind this.

I don't think anyone knows yet what the chances are, there's still too much to play out. I'd have to say Bams is the odds-on favorite but we won't know for sure until after the OSU/OK game. I look for a very narrow split between #2 and #3 if OSU wins big.

Everything has gone Bama's way to have a rematch. I say 75%-80%.

This is my theory. Until this week, there were so many possible scenarios (and teams) in play that none were compared very deeply. But now, it seems the only team standing in Bama's way is OSU.

So, where will the conversation go? Rematch for Bama or Okie State. Lets compare. Both one loss. One team has already had a chance at LSU. One team is an actual conference championship. The opportunity to shum Bama is real assuming OSU beats OU.

These losses can't help their SOS....

Penn St lost
UT lost
Florida lost
Kent State lost
Arkansas lost

If OSU impressively beats OU, I think there is a chance that since Bama is off and just sitting at home, OSU could jump them for number 2. We saw the same thing back in 2007 when even though people lost ahead of us, the people just sitting at home got jumped by us to since we were rewarded for playing and winning another game.

You will also have voters opposed to a rematch voting Bama lower than they should be. However people in favor of a rematch cant vote Bama any higher than they already are because there is no place to go so there is no way to counter out the lower votes.

With both of these things considered, I think there is about a 15% to 20% chance Bama gets bumped from #2 if OSU wins over OU.

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If OSU impressively beats OU, I think there is a chance that since Bama is off and just sitting at home, OSU could jump them for number 2. We saw the same thing back in 2007 when even though people lost ahead of us, the people just sitting at home got jumped by us to since we were rewarded for playing and winning another game.

You will also have voters opposed to a rematch voting Bama lower than they should be. However people in favor of a rematch cant vote Bama any higher than they already are because there is no place to go so there is no way to counter out the lower votes.

With both of these things considered, I think there is about a 15% to 20% chance Bama gets bumped from #2 if OSU wins over OU.

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I pretty much agree. OSU already leads Bama in the computer 1/3 of the formula and all OSU needs is a percentage of at least 1 of the 2 human polls to pass Bama. What the odds are, I don't know but if OSU wins big, it's a very real possibility. I look for a close vote either way and one of them is going to go to a bowl game in a foul mood.

95%

I understand the Oklahoma State angle, but I think there are too many teams for them to jump to make up the required ground in the human polls.