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re: Brian Kelly Show

Posted on 8/22/25 at 7:20 am to
Posted by Adam Banks
District 5
Member since Sep 2009
36476 posts
Posted on 8/22/25 at 7:20 am to
quote:

2. The data suggests winning the toss and deferring give you a 9.8% better chance of winning.



Link?
Posted by Tigerik
Franklin, TN
Member since Mar 2007
1720 posts
Posted on 8/22/25 at 7:22 am to
Ohio St. spent $20+ last year and won a title.
Posted by Honkus
Member since Aug 2005
56583 posts
Posted on 8/22/25 at 7:32 am to
quote:

Link?



LINK
Posted by Adam Banks
District 5
Member since Sep 2009
36476 posts
Posted on 8/22/25 at 7:50 am to
That post says teams that defer win at a 55% rate and teams that choose to receive at a 52%


How did you get 9.8 percent by deferring from that?
Posted by GetmorewithLes
UK Basketball Fan
Member since Jan 2011
22280 posts
Posted on 8/22/25 at 7:55 am to
quote:

Someone please ask him about winning the toss and taking the ball... BilJ..?


He has answered that before and I am not saying I agree with it…

Supposedly analytics says that the team that scores first wins like 80% of the time. I could be wrong but I believe the NFL follows this more than college.

If it is me calling it I am deferring!
Posted by mdomingue
Lafayette, LA
Member since Nov 2010
42828 posts
Posted on 8/22/25 at 8:27 am to
quote:

True but it’s still a fact. Everything I’ve found proves deferring is the smarter and better choice except for the one specific reason listed above.



I agree that I would almost always defer (probably closer to absolutely always), but I don't see it being as big a deal as some seem to think.

I also remember when the consensus was to always receive, and people almost always did. That was back in the day when defense and the running game ruled back in the '70s and '80s.

With modern offensive football, deferring seems like the best solution to me.e
Posted by Honkus
Member since Aug 2005
56583 posts
Posted on 8/22/25 at 11:14 am to
use this link instead-

LINK

54.9% winning
45.1% chance of losing

then just subtract losing from winning. high level stuff, i know.
Posted by boxcarbarney
Above all things, be a man
Member since Jul 2007
25745 posts
Posted on 8/22/25 at 11:17 am to
quote:

Does Evil Twin still ruin the show?



Coach, I have a question.
Posted by 18handicap
Member since Jul 2014
6195 posts
Posted on 8/22/25 at 12:21 pm to
Coarrrrchh...
Posted by chaso
clinton ms.
Member since Aug 2006
3220 posts
Posted on 8/22/25 at 12:33 pm to
I remember listening to that, what a great reply! O was entertaining like Miles but uniquely different! They were like a North South version of each other ??


Posted by Tiger Ugly
Baton Rouge
Member since Jul 2008
17796 posts
Posted on 8/22/25 at 12:36 pm to
quote:

Hawthorne and Les made it listenable.


????

Different strokes I guess, Les's frontier gibberish was never what I considered listenable.

I did always enjoy Dinardo and Saban's shows and often went to both. I quit qoing with Les because I did not enjoy his.

Orgeron talking about gumbo wasn't really my bag either....I mean I like gumbo but I'm listening for football.
Posted by Will2nd
Atlanta
Member since Sep 2009
4105 posts
Posted on 8/22/25 at 12:45 pm to
quote:

Damn! Where did they get $18 mill from in such a short time span


Mostly revenue sharing.
Posted by Adam Banks
District 5
Member since Sep 2009
36476 posts
Posted on 8/22/25 at 5:59 pm to
quote:

use this link instead- LINK 54.9% winning 45.1% chance of losing then just subtract losing from winning. high level stuff, i know.



That’s not how it works though



Functionally when you win the toss you have a choice-defer vs receive.

That doesn’t mean that if you don’t defer you go to the other side of the percentage.


You go to the other categories results.

Which he listed.

When a team chooses to receive they have a 52% chance of winning.

Posted by Bacon84
Texas
Member since Oct 2012
1338 posts
Posted on 8/22/25 at 8:57 pm to
quote:

actually a really big deal…

Deferring and receiving the second half yields on average a 1 pt advantage on the scoreboard and also a 12% chance of a stolen possession - meaning scoring at end of half and scoring again at the start of the second half.

Teams that defer win 55% of the time and teams that receive win 52% of the time.

The team deferring also gets to see how the flow of the game is going while knowing they get a possession to start the second half. This allows them to play the first half differently.

TLDR: DEFER TO SECOND HALF BK


Or....

Let's just try this on for size..... the team can stop being pussies and get on the field and push people around, regardless which unit goes on the field first.

I agree that you defer, typically..... however, I dont think it's as big a deal as it is made out to be.



Posted by misey94
Member since Jan 2007
33045 posts
Posted on 8/22/25 at 9:22 pm to
quote:

I’d rather swallow glass than listen to Brian Kelly say anything.
.

Why would you? You aren’t an LSU fan.
Posted by 00 Tech Grad
My homestead, AL
Member since Nov 2009
11446 posts
Posted on 8/22/25 at 9:26 pm to
No. LSU loses against Clemson and 2 SEC teams and gets fricked out of the playoff for a team like Illinois who gets obliterated.

Thank God for baseball.
This post was edited on 8/22/25 at 9:27 pm
Posted by Honkus
Member since Aug 2005
56583 posts
Posted on 8/22/25 at 9:26 pm to
True.. im still on team defer tho
Posted by TheFlyingTiger
Member since Oct 2009
4132 posts
Posted on 8/22/25 at 9:27 pm to
quote:

People make too much of this IMO. Most of the time I would defer and kickoff but there are times to take the ball.


If you know your defense is dog shite you may elect to take it more often
Posted by misey94
Member since Jan 2007
33045 posts
Posted on 8/22/25 at 9:33 pm to
quote:

Thank God for baseball.


frick off you pathetic motherfricker. You cried like a little bitch all fricking baseball season.
Posted by Tarpon08
Cut Off, LA
Member since Dec 2014
8147 posts
Posted on 8/23/25 at 9:25 am to
quote:

Thank God for baseball.


quote:

Jared Jones should be kicked off the team Posted by 00 Tech Grad on 6/1/25 at 11:22


Your opinions on baseball also suck. Worst of the worst.
This post was edited on 8/23/25 at 9:26 am
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