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Started By
Message
re: Bookie says they won't play
Posted on 8/31/10 at 1:35 pm to Zach
Posted on 8/31/10 at 1:35 pm to Zach
quote:
It's a no-lose scenario.
If UNC wins; the gambler loses bet No. 1 and wins bet No. 2 = a wash.
If LSU wins by 20 the gambler wins bet No. 1 and loses bet No. 2 = a wash.
If LSU wins by 2 or 3 the gambler wins bets 1 and 2.
He cannot lose any money.
Nope. You win less than you lose b/c of vigorish. It is not a wash, but is a slight loss.
1
Posted on 8/31/10 at 1:39 pm to Zach
quote:.
It's a no-lose scenario.
If UNC wins; the gambler loses bet No. 1 and wins bet No. 2 = a wash.
If LSU wins by 20 the gambler wins bet No. 1 and loses bet No. 2 = a wash.
If LSU wins by 2 or 3 the gambler wins bets 1 and 2.
He cannot lose any money
this is WRONG!!!! You lose the "juice"
Posted on 8/31/10 at 1:49 pm to LSURulzSEC
I have no idea if they will play or not, but it makes sense they would not play. If those players under suspicion do play, and UNC wins, and those players are lated suspended, UNC would have the win removed from the books (i guess). From UNC's perspective, it would be better to hold the players out of the game. From my irrelevent perspective, I would want UNC playing with its best people, because if LSU wins, the negitives would question the win. Seems lose - lose scenario.
Posted on 8/31/10 at 1:50 pm to Zach
quote:Vegas gets creamed on those bets, but they will be offset by bets the other way. I'm not sure you understand how Vegas bookies make money.
and Vegas gets creamed.
Posted on 8/31/10 at 1:50 pm to mmtiger
And, it may be a lose-lose scenario if LSU wins, but, LSU did not create the situation, UNC created the situation. Its very sad.
Posted on 8/31/10 at 2:50 pm to foshizzle
quote:
Nope. You win less than you lose b/c of vigorish. It is not a wash, but is a slight loss.
Vs. the big payoff if you win both. We've been over this. So...it's very small lose vs. very big win. No big loss is possible.
Posted on 8/31/10 at 2:52 pm to LSURussian
quote:
Vegas gets creamed on those bets, but they will be offset by bets the other way. I'm not sure you understand how Vegas bookies make money.
That's why they have NL on some games. If it were all determined by bets moving the line then every game would have a line.
Posted on 8/31/10 at 3:17 pm to Zach
quote:
That's why they have NL on some games. If it were all determined by bets moving the line then every game would have a line.
usually when there is no line its because there is some unknown at that point and they are waiting to find, say the status of a key player. They usually don't take bets on D 1 v D 1A games.
Posted on 8/31/10 at 4:25 pm to H-Town Tiger
What happened during the USC v. Stanford game in 2007? Was there NL or was the bet not big enough either way?
Posted on 9/3/10 at 11:06 am to OFWHAP
Bump!
Looks like the bookie was right several days in advance.
Looks like the bookie was right several days in advance.
Posted on 9/3/10 at 11:10 am to Zach
Good call.
Posted on 9/3/10 at 11:15 am to Zach
quote:
Multiply that times all the gamblers that will use this strategy and Vegas gets creamed.
frick vegas! They have "creamed" so many people for so many years that it is nice to see them take a fricking every now and then.
Posted on 9/3/10 at 11:15 am to BigDogGambler
Posted on 9/3/10 at 11:15 am to Zach
quote:
It's a no-lose scenario.
If UNC wins; the gambler loses bet No. 1 and wins bet No. 2 = a wash.
If LSU wins by 20 the gambler wins bet No. 1 and loses bet No. 2 = a wash.
If LSU wins by 2 or 3 the gambler wins bets 1 and 2.
He cannot lose any money.
Also a no-lose scenario for vegas. In all scenarios they get the juice which is all they want anywhay.
Posted on 9/3/10 at 11:23 am to Zach
quote:
Bump!
Looks like the bookie was right several days in advance.
No offense man, but you weren't very specific and predicted the line wouldn't go above 2.5.
quote:
Who said they're losing 6 defensive starters?
quote:
his is 2nd hand. My friend in the face to face this morning did not name numbers of players. He was interested in the line. So his version of 'all players' might = 4 or 5. It might be ALL. I can't vouch for that. But he was absolutely assured that some number of players who have not been officially announced will not play according to inside sources at UNC.
He also said this is problematical for bookies and the line will not move above 2.5.
Posted on 9/3/10 at 11:55 am to moneyg
quote:
No offense man, but you weren't very specific and predicted the line wouldn't go above 2.5.
No offense taken, but I made no such prediction. I was repeating what I was told. I don't gamble. Never have. Never even bought a lottery ticket. I made the post because at the time there was a lot of speculation about whether or not players would be suspended. One poster up here started a thread saying NO players would be held out by UNC.
Posted on 9/3/10 at 12:00 pm to Zach
quote:
If LSU wins by a field goal the guy cleans up on both bets
the rant will explode if LSU by a FG
This post was edited on 9/3/10 at 12:01 pm
Posted on 9/3/10 at 12:02 pm to WelcomeToDeathValley
Hell, the Rant will explode if LSU wins by 10. 
Posted on 9/3/10 at 12:07 pm to OFWHAP
quote:
What happened during the USC v. Stanford game in 2007? Was there NL or was the bet not big enough either way?
I'm not sure what you are asking, but there was a point spread it was something like USC -40. I doubt there was a money line, they usual don't have ML on college games when the spread is over 15 or so. There was probably not a lot of action on that game, but I'd bet (pun intended) that Vegas won since the public tends to bet favorites.
Posted on 9/3/10 at 12:10 pm to Zach
quote:
It's a no-lose scenario.
If UNC wins; the gambler loses bet No. 1 and wins bet No. 2 = a wash.
If LSU wins by 20 the gambler wins bet No. 1 and loses bet No. 2 = a wash.
If LSU wins by 2 or 3 the gambler wins bets 1 and 2.
He cannot lose any money.
This logic is flawed. He has already "won" by betting LSU at -1 before the line shifted.
If he then flips and tries to middle the game he has a TON to lose because he's risking his easy win on the initial bet.
Middling isn't some genius strategy that people try to make it out to be. If you make an initial bet and the lines move enough to consider middling, then you've already won and have gotten a free 3 points on your initial wager.
Not a good situation to get greedy IMO. Take the money and run. You'd be better off applying your winnings from the initial bet onto another game that you like instead of praying for a 1 in 7 shot like the game hitting on the middle.
So in a nutshell your statement that "He cannot lose any money" is a little short sighted. He can (and probably will) lose the money that he was going to win on his first bet of LSU-1. Further, he is taking what could be a relatively stress-free bet of LSU-1 and mandating that the entire game he will be on pins and needles, trying to pray for a scenario in which LSU wins by 2 or 3 points, which is the equivalent of Chinese water torture.
This post was edited on 9/3/10 at 12:21 pm
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