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Started By
Message
Bookie says they won't play
Posted on 8/31/10 at 11:18 am
Posted on 8/31/10 at 11:18 am
Take this for what it's worth. My good friend is a professional gambler. He's putting a lot on the LSU game. So, he called his bookie to find out how the line might move on the UNC game if these players are held out.
The bookie says it's already been decided but not officially announced that the players being investigated will not play.
Interestingly, the bookie said it will not make a big difference on the line. Vegas is very concerned about this scenario... A guy bets a thousand last week on LSU -1; The line moves to LSU -4 with the announced suspensions. The same guy then bets a thousand on UNC +4. If LSU wins by a field goal the guy cleans up on both bets. Multiply that times all the gamblers that will use this strategy and Vegas gets creamed.
The bookie says it's already been decided but not officially announced that the players being investigated will not play.
Interestingly, the bookie said it will not make a big difference on the line. Vegas is very concerned about this scenario... A guy bets a thousand last week on LSU -1; The line moves to LSU -4 with the announced suspensions. The same guy then bets a thousand on UNC +4. If LSU wins by a field goal the guy cleans up on both bets. Multiply that times all the gamblers that will use this strategy and Vegas gets creamed.
13
Posted on 8/31/10 at 11:44 am to Zach
Interesting!
Posted on 8/31/10 at 11:48 am to Zach
So Vegas is powerful enough to get "official" news before its officially anounced?
Posted on 8/31/10 at 11:48 am to Zach
hmmmmmmmm interesting
Posted on 8/31/10 at 11:49 am to Steauxn
quote:
So Vegas is powerful enough to get "official" news before its officially anounced?
You really need to ask that?
Posted on 8/31/10 at 11:49 am to Zach
quote:
Multiply that times all the gamblers that will use this strategy and Vegas gets creamed.
There are probably not very many people that did that, the odds are very low it hits right down the middle, if it does, what they lose is not a big deal.
Posted on 8/31/10 at 11:50 am to RummelTiger
Yes, Vegs is the all being.
Posted on 8/31/10 at 11:51 am to RummelTiger
I have never bet anything in my life. Never even looked in to it or paid attention to it. I can see Vegas getting tips from professional leaugues, just didn't expect it from the NCAA
Posted on 8/31/10 at 11:51 am to Steauxn
quote:
So Vegas is powerful enough to get "official" news before its officially anounced?
yes...
Posted on 8/31/10 at 11:51 am to Steauxn
quote:
So Vegas is powerful enough to get "official" news before its officially anounced?
When you've got that much riding on a FB game you cover your bases with your contacts. Hell, this gambler friend of mine delivered money to a center from LSU in the 60s after he hiked the ball over the punters head as promised.
Posted on 8/31/10 at 11:51 am to bayoubengal225
Las Vegas = The Alpha + The Omega 
Posted on 8/31/10 at 11:52 am to LSU NO Tigah
not really interesting. someone will be betting the other side...who cares whether it is the same bettor or not....whomever bets unc +4 IF all those players out ...well they deserve to get skull f*&^%$. LSU wins this game by > 4 points with or without
Posted on 8/31/10 at 11:52 am to Steauxn
quote:
I can see Vegas getting tips from professional leaugues, just didn't expect it from the NCAA
Vegas prolly knew before Butch Davis knew...
Posted on 8/31/10 at 11:54 am to H-Town Tiger
quote:
There are probably not very many people that did that, the odds are very low it hits right down the middle, if it does, what they lose is not a big deal.
It's a no-lose scenario.
If UNC wins; the gambler loses bet No. 1 and wins bet No. 2 = a wash.
If LSU wins by 20 the gambler wins bet No. 1 and loses bet No. 2 = a wash.
If LSU wins by 2 or 3 the gambler wins bets 1 and 2.
He cannot lose any money.
Posted on 8/31/10 at 11:54 am to RummelTiger
quote:
Vegas prolly knew before Butch Davis knew...
now thats interesting. thanks to everyone for clearing it up for my dumb/naive arse
Posted on 8/31/10 at 11:55 am to Steauxn
quote:
So $MONEY$ is powerful enough to get "official" news before its officially anounced?
FIFY
This post was edited on 8/31/10 at 11:56 am
Posted on 8/31/10 at 11:55 am to Zach
The most likely scenario is that the guy placing that double bet loses one and wins the other. Whcih means Vegas wins by collecting the vig on the bets, and the win/loss cancels out. Multiply by all the gmablers employing this stupid stategy and Vegas will make a killing so long as LSU doesn't win "within" the spread.
Posted on 8/31/10 at 11:55 am to Zach
Well I did see on the news that Vegas pulled the game off the boards....citing the UNC players being suspended as the main reason
Posted on 8/31/10 at 11:58 am to Zach
quote:
A guy bets a thousand last week on LSU -1; The line moves to LSU -4 with the announced suspensions. The same guy then bets a thousand on UNC +4. If LSU wins by a field goal the guy cleans up on both bets. Multiply that times all the gamblers that will use this strategy and Vegas gets creamed
Not that I have lots of sympathy for bookies, but the line moves to LSU -4 not because of the announcement about players sitting, but because the betters drive it there due to the announcement. And if there's a lot of money put on UNC + 4, that will drive the spread wider. Vegas is all about balancing the book.
This post was edited on 8/31/10 at 12:04 pm
Posted on 8/31/10 at 11:59 am to Zach
quote:
When you've got that much riding on a FB game you cover your bases with your contacts. Hell, this gambler friend of mine delivered money to a center from LSU in the 60s after he hiked the ball over the punters head as promised.
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