re: Bookie says they won't play

The books have to be careful with a "middle" play here.

I personally believe the value play is with the Tarheels.

I see them winning this game, but if not, I believe they will hang within the small number (+ 3.5'ish).

Guys - books lay balances to each other all the time. They play the game for the juice, they rarely take a beating and I mean rarely, especically on a game that is this close...there will be plenty of $$ on both sides for them to balance the bet.

LSU should beat these guys by at elast 2 touchdowns.

This is an easy game to pick. Plus any single player that gets held out by NC should move teh line quite a bit. They are NOT that deep, and that's what counts.

If the lose more than one or two on D, this will be a blow out.

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Vegas is all about balancing the book.
This.

The whole point of a moving line is to ensure that the bookie has an equal number of losing bets and winning bets so that the losers cover the winners and the bookie takes the vig

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That's the theory, but it don't work that way in real life. Far more is bet on NFL games, usually the best outcome for Vegas is for the favorite to win outright, but not cover. Most people usually bet favorites, but they have greater exposure if underdog wins outright.

The real threat for a game with a large line move is pairing that game with a "key" game in a two game teaser.

Teasers don't have juice.

5 1/2 pts. either way buys you 5 1/2 on the key game, with no risk of juice.

ETA: Of course, you have to win the key game, but you get 5 1/2 free points. I have never lost a key game in this scenario, but I have had the game fall outside of my 11+ pt. margin for no joy.

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Middling has been a science for many years, and it pays in the long run. Don't underestimate it.

You will rarely see a big line move on Monday night games for this reason.

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I would need to see evidence middling works or even happens all that often, for starters, it would require someone to place bets early before a line moves. Sure there are pros that do that, usually because they see an opening line that think is too low and many times the line will not move that much.

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You will also be very surprised how many times the number drops right in the slot. Lines are very accurate.

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sure, they know what they are doing. lots of totals are pretty close to the number. How often does say a line open at 3, move to 7 and hits in between?

Big casinos are much more worried about Sunday's like week 6 last year.

Vegas does not get equal bets on both sides

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The Las Vegas Review Journal reported that in some sports books, 90 percent of the action was on the Colts. The bettors had good reason: Undefeated Indy won 42-6,

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this game had way more action that bettors middling the LSU-UNC game

I doubt it's a lot harder than I believe.

I have 3 good friends who have booked their entire lifetime and do their business offshore.

They also cross state lines when laying off.

I only bet when I'm in the book at Vegas.

My cost of entertainment is too high to do this weekly anymore.

The worst part is when you begin to win betting against yourself. You no longer can determine what you really think is going to happen.

It also leads to loss of attachment to any particular team, and a total disinterest in the actual games.

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There are probably not very many people that did that, the odds are very low it hits right down the middle, if it does, what they lose is not a big deal.

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The problem is that the gambler can't lose. The house HATES that scenario. You would do that every time if you could. If you knew you couldn't lose, you would bet everything you could put up - if you win, you quadruple, otherwise you push.

Honestly the easiest way to make money with betting on games is to find someone who is willing to bet on the underdog and you bet the favorite. Then you counter your bet with your bookie by taking the moneyline for the underdog plus money. Put just enough in where no matter which team wins its even money on both sides for you.
EX James Toney/Randy Couture fight
Friend bet me $75 that Toney would win. Toney was +500 with my bookie so I put $25 on him to win $125 with my bookie. Regardless of who won I was gonna get $50. And if you can make the bet with your friend bigger than you can get more money on either side. Just make sure you friend or whoever is good for there bet. Ive made so much money by doing this.