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Started By
Message
re: Bookie says they won't play
Posted on 8/31/10 at 12:00 pm to Steauxn
Posted on 8/31/10 at 12:00 pm to Steauxn
quote:
I have never bet anything in my life. Never even looked in to it or paid attention to it. I can see Vegas getting tips from professional leaugues, just didn't expect it from the NCAA
Tehy are everywhere. Those dudes are smart as shite and have tons of inside sources.
1
Posted on 8/31/10 at 12:02 pm to Baloo
quote:
The most likely scenario is that the guy placing that double bet loses one and wins the other. Whcih means Vegas wins by collecting the vig on the bets, and the win/loss cancels out. Multiply by all the gmablers employing this stupid stategy and Vegas will make a killing so long as LSU doesn't win "within" the spread.
True. But this is a game that is much more likely to fall within the spread than say, Ohio State v. Marshall. Therefore, Vegas is worried that too many people will employ the strategy if the line shifts too far for LSU. That's risky.
Here's a good way to test it. If the announcement is made Wed or Thur and the line moves to LSU -4 then my info is wrong. If the announcement is made and the line stops at LSU -2/5 then my info is correct.
I'm not a gambler. Can't stand it. My only reason for posting is that there is conflicting info about the status of these UNC players and I think we can all agree that Butch Davis has already made that decision.
Posted on 8/31/10 at 12:02 pm to RummelTiger
quote:
Vegas prolly knew before Butch Davis knew...
And this is most likely true. It's amazing to watch the lines sometimes. Just to see what they do. I've lost bets before that I thought for sure were locks and somehow they would hit some random as in between where LV cleaned up.
Amazing. Simply amazing.Posted on 8/31/10 at 12:03 pm to Zach
Its called juice my friend. You will lose money if you dont hit the middle.
Posted on 8/31/10 at 12:03 pm to Steauxn
i bet they do
Posted on 8/31/10 at 12:04 pm to Duckie
Damn Duckie, cut me some slack 
Posted on 8/31/10 at 12:04 pm to Zach
quote:
It's a no-lose scenario.
If UNC wins; the gambler loses bet No. 1 and wins bet No. 2 = a wash.
If LSU wins by 20 the gambler wins bet No. 1 and loses bet No. 2 = a wash.
If LSU wins by 2 or 3 the gambler wins bets 1 and 2.
He cannot lose any money.
This usually takes place when one book service has a game very different from another and with 5-7 points between them. The line has moved from -1.5 to -3.5 LSU... 2 pts. The books would be licking their chops for people to try to sandwich that bet.
But if you are so confident, bet it. The better bet is to tease the line & over/under to get LSU + points and the total up taking the under, that's called a plus/under parlait.
Posted on 8/31/10 at 12:05 pm to RummelTiger
quote:
Vegas prolly knew before Butch Davis knew...
definitely
Posted on 8/31/10 at 12:05 pm to Shankopotomus
quote:
Well I did see on the news that Vegas pulled the game off the boards....citing the UNC players being suspended as the main reason
So, they've been announced suspended or because of speculation?
Posted on 8/31/10 at 12:06 pm to Steauxn
quote:
So Vegas is powerful enough to get "official" news before its officially anounced?
how do you think they keep cleaning house at the slots? it takes brain science
Posted on 8/31/10 at 12:07 pm to LSURulzSEC
Sorry to disillusion you, Rulz, but it happened. And it wasn't point shaving. It was throwing a game.
Posted on 8/31/10 at 12:08 pm to Zach
quote:
last week on LSU -1; The line moves to LSU -4 with the announced suspensions
Losing 6 defensive starters only moves the line 3 points!!!!!!!
Boy they must really think highly of our offense.
Posted on 8/31/10 at 12:09 pm to Steauxn
I will as soon as LV cuts me some 
Posted on 8/31/10 at 12:13 pm to Zach
quote:
He cannot lose any money.
if loses 1 of the bets, he loses juice, if it splits down the middle he doubles up, big deal, that's not very likely. Before the 2007 BCS CG a bookie I know said he had to root against LSU because a client of his had bet $500 on LSU to win before the season at +800 (he would collect $4000 if LSU won). He came back and bet $500 on Ohio State on the ML at like +160. If tOSU won the guy wins 800, loses 500 up 300. LSU wins he wins 4000 loses 500, up 3500. Now that is a no lose bet.
Posted on 8/31/10 at 12:17 pm to Zach
quote:This.
Vegas is all about balancing the book.
The whole point of a moving line is to ensure that the bookie has an equal number of losing bets and winning bets so that the losers cover the winners and the bookie takes the vig. If one side is being bet more than the other, the line moves to entice more bets on the other side to even things out. The whole idea of "Vegas taking a beating" from an unlikely outcome is simply incorrect.
Posted on 8/31/10 at 12:17 pm to the LSUSaint
quote:
Losing 6 defensive starters only moves the line 3 points!!!!!!!
Who said they're losing 6 defensive starters?
Posted on 8/31/10 at 12:18 pm to Zach
quote:
Vegas is worried that too many people will employ the strategy if the line shifts too far for LSU.
they are not worried regardless. They probably had very few bets on LSU -1. Lines have big swings all the time, most bets are with in 24 hours of kickoff, so I doubt they have a lot of exposure on LSU before the line loved.
Posted on 8/31/10 at 12:18 pm to Ignatius J. Reilly
quote:
The whole point of a moving line is to ensure that the bookie has an equal number of losing bets and winning bets so that the losers cover the winners and the bookie takes the vig. If one side is being bet more than the other, the line moves to entice more bets on the other side to even things out. The whole idea of "Vegas taking a beating" from an unlikely outcome is simply incorrect.
Exactly. Vegas is trying to "win" per say. They are balancing and increasing their odds.
Posted on 8/31/10 at 12:18 pm to Zach
quote:
Who said they're losing 6 defensive starters?
He said "all players being investigated would not play", and it was reported there were 6 on defense at the beggining of the "tudor" scandal
Posted on 8/31/10 at 12:19 pm to Zach
quote:
Sorry to disillusion you, Rulz, but it happened. And it wasn't point shaving. It was throwing a game.
I'm not disillusioned at all...I have no doubt in my mind that it happens...
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