re: Bama -4 tonight. Thoughts???

quote:

---

You’re right, +2.5 to +4 with the public being on LSU. Still reverse movement, just had my numbers wrong. Either way that’s Vegas begging you keep hammering LSU

---

If someone wanted on Bama they missed the number at -2.5. LSU went up to +5 at one book I saw and was quickly bet back down to LSU +4 within 2 minutes. Sharp money hammered Bama at -2.5 soon as the line opened.

OP I would wait and see who is playing for sure because Xavier Pinson is questionable. I’m not sure I’m going to play it. Seems like when I go against Bama they show up and if I bet on them they outright lose or don’t cover. Alabama is not the same team as last year but I’m having trouble figuring out when to play on or against them. I’ve won a lot of money on LSU this year but I’m not certain this is a matchup stylistically that I can back with confidence on a large wager because Bama are losers of 3 straight games and 4 of their last 6 and are below .500 in conference play yet LSU keeps getting points which makes no sense. Bama is a desperate team playing at home tonight. LSU has the #1 defense in both adjusted efficiency and eFG%. LSU ranks 12th in 2 point defense and 6th in defending the 3 ball and 2nd in opponents free throw percentage. Yet as other posters noted our opponents have been getting open looks when attacking our defense but just have not been sinking them. Gaines has looked okay in Pinson’s absence averaging 14.5 points per game but he leads all Tigers with 3.3 turnovers per game. You beat Bama on the inside because they rank 238th in 2 point defense. That’s about as bad as it gets. But Bama does rank 32nd in defense beyond the arc. On paper we look like we should win but with all those opponents missing open shots when will we have a regression to the mean. I hope not tonight. Our interior players have got to stay out of foul trouble to win this game. I still think this is a fishy line. Bama is getting 21% of the bets and 38% of the money. Someone meaning more than several well respected pros have obviously laid a briefcase full of money down on a desperate Alabama team. Looks like a classic Joe’s versus Pros game here. I'm going to put $100 down on LSU +4 to give me something to cheer harder about but I’m not going nuts on it with a large wager. Might sprinkle a little on the LSU money line too.

I have a feeling that Bama wins

quote:

---

don’t get why this place has just decided that LSU is no longer a good team and Bama is this dominant team.

---

Thts not whats happening. Alot of us just think this is a bad matchup and spot for lsu

quote:

---

On the road. Hard to see getting a win there.

---

Not only that, you gotta expect this Bama team has circled the game as a turning point in their season. They've been losing a lot of close games and aren't playing near their potential. Also LSU sucks in Coleman. Take the tide. Hope for the W.

If Pinson doesn't play I don't see LSU getting enough scoring to keep up.

quote:

---

LSU allows the most 3 point attempts per game outside of about 20 other teams in the country. Yet, LSU is 6th in the nation in opponents' 3 point %. After 17 games it is hard to completely attribute that to just luck.

---

I agree and it's because it's not luck. LSU is much better at doing the thing that caused us by far the most problems defensively - dribble penetration - it begins and ends there.

We are better at that - the rotations are quicker and better because we have better length and lateral quickness and the kick out 3's are not as open or more contested and if they are open it's the guys we want shooting them.

I love LSU, but not tonight. Bama is desperate and we screwed the pooch against R Kansas. I believe we could be 3 and 3 after tonight, and that is probably exactly what this team needs. The good news is it can all be left behind. But, that tentative point guard play when the lane was wide open the least 5 minutes of the R Kansas game will get us crushed against Bama on the road. I hope it doesn't happen.

In 17 games thus far the best anyone has shot the 3 against LSU is 33%. The laws of probability suggest that can't solely be because all 17 teams had "off nights". And it is not just a bunch of "bad" 3 point shooting teams relative to Alabama. Liberty, Kentucky, Lipscomb, Belmont, Tennessee, Ohio, Auburn, Wake Forest, ULM, La. Tech, Northwestern St., Georgia Tech, all have as a team a better 3 point % than Alabama. Hell, even LSU has a slightly higher 3 point %.

I guess the counter-argument could be that even though Alabama's 3 point FG% isn't great, they make up for it in volume because they average 9 made three pointers per game (30th in the country). But then you look at the games where opponents made a high volume of threes against LSU and you see:

Belmont - 10 made threes...53 total points.
Penn St. - 12 made threes...63 total points (in OT)
Ohio - 12 made threes...61 total points.
Lipscomb - 9 made threes...60 total points.
Kentucky - 8 made threes...60 total points

It may be a case of residual PTSD for LSU fans from the first Alabama game last season where they made a ridiculous 23 three pointers against LSU that night. In the next 2 games vs. LSU last season they made 6 and 12 (12 being in the SECT where LSU was a tip in away from winning)

For LSU I think it starts and ends with turnovers. If LSU can hold on to the ball their defense will keep opponents at bay long enough to let the offense gradually pull away. But if they continue to turn the ball over that means LSU goes a possession without a shot. If you are not shooting you can't make any shots. And if you can't make shots you can't build off of the other team not scoring.

quote:

---

Its definitely not completely luck, but my eyes tell me there is definitely a level of luck involved. We wont give up 26% from 3 all year, regression is due to push that number closer to 30 %. Which is still good.

---

Five games into SEC play teams are shooting 28% from three vs. LSU. Only UK has been above 30% (33%). Three of those opponents: Kentucky, Auburn, Tennessee are among the top 5 in terms of 3 point FG%.

I get your line of thinking. But at some point, game after game, the data starts to suggest that it might just be somehow, someway, LSU is really damn good at defending the 3 this year.

we play like we played against arkansas and we will get shite kicked

LSU wins, the bama coach is arrested for child porn at half time and is dragged off to a long sentence of prison rape…