Bama -4 tonight. Thoughts???

Line feels right. If anything i may bet lsu team total under.
Depends if pinson plays

I was coming here to start this thread.

I got game total under at 150. Don't know what to think of the spread. If I play LSU it will probably be a ML parlay with the under

Dont do it then

On the road. Hard to see getting a win there.

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SOunds about right. Take Bama and the 4. Under Oates, Bama is bad matchup for LSU. The one weakness this defense has is they still give up open 3's. They been lucky so far that they played team who were not great shooting teams from 3. Bama will shoot alot of 3's tonight.

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Reid needs to guard bama’s 4 man so bama doesn’t force LSU into a 1-5 switch or LSU needs to not switch with Reid. Or maybe Reid should only play when bama’s 7 footer is in the game.

Unfortunately I think LSU drops this one. Bama is going to be shooting 3s all night and they are really good at it. We don’t guard the 3 that well.

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The one weakness this defense has is they still give up open 3's. They been lucky so far that they played team who were not great shooting teams from 3. Bama will shoot alot of 3's tonight.

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LSU allows the most 3 point attempts per game outside of about 20 other teams in the country. Yet, LSU is 6th in the nation in opponents' 3 point %. After 17 games it is hard to completely attribute that to just luck. That's not to say Alabama could not go off at home. Because they are going to bomb away. It is what they do. But from a raw numbers perspective I think you could argue defending the 3 is one of LSU's biggest strengths, not weaknesses. Point being, EVERY team has shot a lot of 3's against LSU...and it has generally been to their detriment this season.

Alabama is averaging about 9 made 3 pointers per game. If LSU can keep them under that number it should give LSU a chance IF LSU's actual two biggest weaknesses don't manifest, turnovers and struggles with defensive rebounding. The way LSU defends should give them a huge margin for error offensively. Unfortunately, the offense has been so inefficient this season that they have gotten close to burning that margin of error often in SEC play (with the Tennessee game being the only real exception)

Reid needs to stay out of fouls trouble

They just won’t be able to score enough tonight to get it done. I see LSU scoring in the 70s and Bama getting to the 80s with the deep ball.

There’s reverse line movement. Opened at LSU +4, Public is on LSU, and it goes to LSU +4.5. That would indicate Vegas begging you to take LSU + points. Seems like a trap. If I were to have to bet on it, just because of the reverse movement I would take bama minus the points, but I can’t do that so I’ll probably lay off.