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re: Analyzing The Dip in Batting Average in SEC Play
Posted on 5/8/23 at 9:56 am to geauxtigers33
Posted on 5/8/23 at 9:56 am to geauxtigers33
quote:
Being below average at the SEC level doesn’t mean they wouldn’t be able to hit and win at the sun belt level.
Maybe you misread
Not the 7 other starters
It was argued that 9 other bench players could win a small conference.
0
Posted on 5/8/23 at 9:56 am to LSUcajun77
quote:
What’s about
Thompson
Tre’
Crews
White
Jones
Dugas
Beloso
Travenski
Kling
I like Tre Crews White in the 2/3/4 spots.
Thompson can hit and run. Why not throw him back up there and see what he can do?
Jordan has the lowest on base percentage in sec play out of all the starters and strikes out entirely too much.
Tre, crews and white makes sure they all hit in the first inning and could be the difference in an AB every game.
Look at Saturday- I wish we had crews up in the 9th after his 0/4 day but instead Dugas and Morgan each finished with one more plate appearance than Dylan and Tommy.
I want crew and white getting as many chances as possible.
This post was edited on 5/8/23 at 9:56 am
Posted on 5/8/23 at 9:57 am to Solo Cam
quote:
He's just demonstrating how poor the rest of the lineup is hitting
Then don’t compare your team’s average without its two best players with the overall league average. It’s disingenuous at best.
If the OP compared the average of the rest of the team with the average of every other SEC team’s average without its two best players I can see why make the point.
Posted on 5/8/23 at 9:58 am to Solo Cam
Yea I was ETA’n as you were postin. I agree after looking back at Lester’s stats.
This post was edited on 5/8/23 at 9:59 am
Posted on 5/8/23 at 9:59 am to LSUcajun77
quote:
The kid is a monster, with a ton of power, and can stroke, but some of his plate appearance just look bad. I know he’s young, and adjusting, so overall he’s having a great year for a freshman.
I think he can learn a lot from Tommy White's approach at the plate. Especially his batting style with 2 strikes. Shorten swing, foul off junk, wait for your pitch.
Posted on 5/8/23 at 10:00 am to Lester Earl
Good report on how we look taking out our two best everyday guys.
Now look what happens when you remove the two worst everyday guys ( based on average). We are hitting 291 rounded up.
Then when you consider the two worst guys average wise are getting on base about 40% of the time and they account for almost 24% of our homers in league play, it’s not really that bad.
We lean on our superstars, but when you have superstars that’s how things usually work out. We less the league in OB%, and we also lead the league in runs scored despite missing a game.
We definitely need to figure out right field and we definitely have to rev up some engines, but our offense is very good.
Now look what happens when you remove the two worst everyday guys ( based on average). We are hitting 291 rounded up.
Then when you consider the two worst guys average wise are getting on base about 40% of the time and they account for almost 24% of our homers in league play, it’s not really that bad.
We lean on our superstars, but when you have superstars that’s how things usually work out. We less the league in OB%, and we also lead the league in runs scored despite missing a game.
We definitely need to figure out right field and we definitely have to rev up some engines, but our offense is very good.
Posted on 5/8/23 at 10:04 am to OGtigerfan87
Baseball is a game of cherry picked stats
It’s a game of adjustments.
It’s a game of matchup splits.
It’s a game of streaks.
No they won’t. That is long in the past. But I understand the hope for that
It’s a game of adjustments.
It’s a game of matchup splits.
It’s a game of streaks.
quote:
The conference games before that series were against better teams and actually give better context on how we will fare in the postseason.
No they won’t. That is long in the past. But I understand the hope for that
Posted on 5/8/23 at 10:04 am to KamaCausey_LSU
That’s a common approach. Shorten up with two strikes, let it come all the way in, and “if” it’s close, drive it the other way.
The problem is he’s putting himself in a hole 0-2 on two bad pitches swinging for the mountains.
It comes with ABs, and he’ll adjust and grow. I don’t see him as an issue at the moment, the amount of strike outs just catches your eye.
I think at 32 ABs he had 15 strikeouts earlier in the season. So at 96 (With the walks) he’s sitting at 32, that’s improvement.
The problem is he’s putting himself in a hole 0-2 on two bad pitches swinging for the mountains.
It comes with ABs, and he’ll adjust and grow. I don’t see him as an issue at the moment, the amount of strike outs just catches your eye.
I think at 32 ABs he had 15 strikeouts earlier in the season. So at 96 (With the walks) he’s sitting at 32, that’s improvement.
Posted on 5/8/23 at 10:05 am to Lester Earl
quote:
Finally, crunching some numbers, if you remove Crews and Tommy White from the statistics in SEC play, LSU, as a team, hits .243.
How does that compare with other SEC teams if you remove two comparable hitters (two of the 4 most productive hitters, for instance) from every other team?
I get the concern because it does seem like the team is not hitting as well right now. I just don't see the point of eliminating the top guys from the team averages and then comparing it to other teams inclusive of their best players.
Posted on 5/8/23 at 10:05 am to KamaCausey_LSU
quote:
I think he can learn a lot from Tommy White's approach at the plate. Especially his batting style with 2 strikes. Shorten swing, foul off junk, wait for your pitch.
Most college baseball players don't have quick enough hands to emulate what White does with two strikes but to your point, I agree that the two-strike approach by most of the lineup is horrible, but so many do it I think they are coached this way.
Take a guy like Thompson, for example. He should be much more of a contact hitter, but time and again, with two strikes, he's up there swinging out of his shoes. He needs to take the same approach as his big hit against Tennessee.
Posted on 5/8/23 at 10:11 am to Lester Earl
I know this is about the SEC statistics as a whole, but I thought Auburn pitched really, really well this weekend. You're going to run into that sometimes. We let them off the hook too often, but I do feel like they did a good job of keeping us off balance.
Posted on 5/8/23 at 10:13 am to Lester Earl
quote:
Let me know what you want the standards to be.
Compare apples to apples. That is all he is asking. Not an unreasonable request as I did the same before I saw he had.
If you are simply trying to give a statistical voice to your concerns, which I understand, then just say how far the numbers drop. Comparing them to other teams' numbers that contain their best performers while not using our own gives a skewed interpretation.
Posted on 5/8/23 at 10:14 am to geauxtigers33
quote:
Then don’t compare your team’s average without its two best players with the overall league average. It’s disingenuous at best.
I did not do this to really compare to other teams, but by all means feel free to look into that information if you want. The SEC averages were just used a perspective for LSU's own numbers.
I point this out mainly to get an idea of approach and lineup depth, which, at one point, was though to be head and shoulders above everyone else.
If I would have asked you to blindly guess these numbers, I guarantee you would have guessed much, much higher than the actual numbers.
Posted on 5/8/23 at 10:16 am to doubleb
IMO you ride with Kling no matter what and hopefully he gets hot with the bat. He is too talented and his speed is so valuable on the bases and the outfield. Jobert is a liability in RF and is not hitting good this year anyway. Kling when right can be a difference maker.
Posted on 5/8/23 at 10:23 am to Lester Earl
Sec has very good pitchers, but I think Auburn coaches did a great job scouting our tendencies. I’m sure coach J is well aware, and will make adjustments where possible regarding approach and maybe lineups.
Pitching is obviously inconsistent, which is to be expected following the injuries. Fact is we are still as good as any team in the country… maybe not head and shoulders better anymore… again, due to our particular injuries.
Pitching is obviously inconsistent, which is to be expected following the injuries. Fact is we are still as good as any team in the country… maybe not head and shoulders better anymore… again, due to our particular injuries.
Posted on 5/8/23 at 10:26 am to Lester Earl
Dugas BA is really dragging the rest down. Since we are allowed to just take stuff away. Take him out and it brings the team BA outside of Crews and White up about 20 points.
I don’t think Dugas is fully healthy and I do believe they need to move him somewhere else in the lineup or maybe just give him a weekend off.
I would like to have Travinski DH some when he isn’t starting at catcher but with Neal being injured you can’t really have your backup catcher as the DH. If something were to happen to the catcher you would lose the DH in the lineup.
I don’t think Dugas is fully healthy and I do believe they need to move him somewhere else in the lineup or maybe just give him a weekend off.
I would like to have Travinski DH some when he isn’t starting at catcher but with Neal being injured you can’t really have your backup catcher as the DH. If something were to happen to the catcher you would lose the DH in the lineup.
Posted on 5/8/23 at 10:29 am to DRock88
quote:
We need to try a different sequence at the top of the order. I propose Morgan to leadoff. Then you can go with Dugas, Crews, White or Crews, White, etc.
I wouldn't want to move Dugas right now while he's not really producing base hits. He's not an RBI guy right now. Seems like he's been BB/HBP and the occasional HR. I wouldn't be opposed to Crews/White/Travinski batting 2/3/4 but that's a lot of RHs in a row so I think Morgan has to stay up there somewhere
Posted on 5/8/23 at 10:39 am to Lester Earl
I have a few issues with how you are looking at offensive production excluding Crews and White. First, it’s not apples-to-apples to compare the lineup without the two best hitters to league averages that include everyone’s best hitters (including Crews and White). What are the league averages without the top two hitters on each team? If LSU still falls short by that comparison then there might be something more to this.
Second, the SEC isn’t an average offensive league compared either to historical averages or to other conferences this year. The ERA in league games is at 6.19 up from 5.50 last year (which was already a relative high point). Falling short of the averages for a historically strong offensive league is not necessarily a bad thing, especially when you exclude the top two hitters.
Third, Crews and White are on the team and in the lineup, so it’s a bit misleading to judge the offense without them. This weekend did show just how important Crews is to the offense and it’s clear they need him to be performing at a high level to be successful, but that’s not really a shocking revelation. With Crews and White, LSU is first in conference games in runs and OBP and 3rd in BA. They are still the best offense in the league and the country, even with the recent slide.
All that said, the recent performance by so many batters in the lineup is interesting and potentially troubling. The overall conference stats are strong, but they are clearly headed the wrong direction even though the competition level has gone down. There two different conclusions that can be drawn. Either this team was overachieving in the early conference schedule or it’s just bad luck that so many batters are in a slump simultaneously and we should see the team’s offensive performance bounce back. If they were overachieving, that does not bode well going forward. We can argue about tweaks to the lineup, but there are no magical missing pieces sitting on the bench that are going to replicate that early season production.
Looking at the players individually, Beloso is the only one I look at and think his prior production was unsustainable unless Dugas isn’t going to get back to 100% from his injury. Jobert and Thompson have always been streaky. It’s just unfortunate that they both hit a slide at the same time and at the same time as Dugas got hurt and Beloso came back to Earth. Add in Crews looking mortal this weekend and it was a perfect storm.
Crews is my biggest worry. I don’t worry he’ll hit as badly as he did this weekend, but maybe hitting well over .400 with an OBP over .600 isn’t sustainable. If he can’t at least hit close to .400 with an OBP over .500 in the postseason, this team’s prospects go way down.
Second, the SEC isn’t an average offensive league compared either to historical averages or to other conferences this year. The ERA in league games is at 6.19 up from 5.50 last year (which was already a relative high point). Falling short of the averages for a historically strong offensive league is not necessarily a bad thing, especially when you exclude the top two hitters.
Third, Crews and White are on the team and in the lineup, so it’s a bit misleading to judge the offense without them. This weekend did show just how important Crews is to the offense and it’s clear they need him to be performing at a high level to be successful, but that’s not really a shocking revelation. With Crews and White, LSU is first in conference games in runs and OBP and 3rd in BA. They are still the best offense in the league and the country, even with the recent slide.
All that said, the recent performance by so many batters in the lineup is interesting and potentially troubling. The overall conference stats are strong, but they are clearly headed the wrong direction even though the competition level has gone down. There two different conclusions that can be drawn. Either this team was overachieving in the early conference schedule or it’s just bad luck that so many batters are in a slump simultaneously and we should see the team’s offensive performance bounce back. If they were overachieving, that does not bode well going forward. We can argue about tweaks to the lineup, but there are no magical missing pieces sitting on the bench that are going to replicate that early season production.
Looking at the players individually, Beloso is the only one I look at and think his prior production was unsustainable unless Dugas isn’t going to get back to 100% from his injury. Jobert and Thompson have always been streaky. It’s just unfortunate that they both hit a slide at the same time and at the same time as Dugas got hurt and Beloso came back to Earth. Add in Crews looking mortal this weekend and it was a perfect storm.
Crews is my biggest worry. I don’t worry he’ll hit as badly as he did this weekend, but maybe hitting well over .400 with an OBP over .600 isn’t sustainable. If he can’t at least hit close to .400 with an OBP over .500 in the postseason, this team’s prospects go way down.
Posted on 5/8/23 at 11:00 am to MikeTheTiger71
quote:
Crews is my biggest worry. I don’t worry he’ll hit as badly as he did this weekend, but maybe hitting well over .400 with an OBP over .600 isn’t sustainable. If he can’t at least hit close to .400 with an OBP over .500 in the postseason, this team’s prospects go way down.
You can’t say this ^, and have beef with this v
quote:
compare the lineup without the two best hitters to league averages that include everyone’s best hitters (including Crews and White). What are the league averages without the top two hitters on each team? If LSU still falls short by that comparison then there might be something more to this.
Posted on 5/8/23 at 11:17 am to Lester Earl
quote:
You can’t say this ^, and have beef with this v
Sure I can. What we need is a metric that shows how much more dependent LSU is upon Crews than every other team is upon the best hitter in their lineup. It’s not at all surprising that LSU would be in trouble without Crews. The question is how abnormal is that reliance.
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